Las Vegas Election Tracker

[mediaprophet]

I've done some research for you all. First, I found Vegas odds for McCain and Obama offered on various days, then to help interpret them, I calculated the probability from the odds (A-B; take B/A to get the ratio R, then calculate R/(R+1

Comments

[sophistbastard]

"Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee/candidate before 2008 presidential election" opened at 3% but shot up to about 18% on the day it opened (which looks like Wednesday, but it looks like it's closing in on about 7% now -- after her speech at the convention there would need to be another whammy to drop her.

FWIW Intrade has the chance of Obama winning at 57% and the chance of McCain winning at 42.6%. (Each of those are, of course, separate markets.)

[mediaprophet]

That's a loss of fourteen points for Obama in one week, on the odds-makers' confidence. Ouch.

[mediaprophet]

Er, two weeks.

[sophistbastard]

Difference in opinion, I guess. InTrade has had Obama hovering around 60 for at least a month. Slight downward trending since the GOP Convention, but I think that'd be expected.