Those are very similar to my LMP/due dates with smallclanger. Based on conception for me I'd go with guy 1; even with very long cycles guy 2 seems to be too late if a scan (~20 weeks) today puts her due date in mid-July - it would have to be a huge baby to be 3-4 weeks ahead at this point. smallclanger was about 1 week behind at this stage and the measurements were noticeably off from where they should have been, so 3-4 weeks would notice.
So #1 is it, with the baby maybe a bit small for dates unless "give or take a few days" means "two weeks later, about the time I was most likely to have ovulated."
You actually can do prenatal paternity testing from an amnio, but since it's pretty clear #1 is the father, I don't see there's burning need to do it now, rather than at birth.
It would have to be guy #1. I'm due on July 25th, and I got pregnant the last week of October/very beginning of Nov with a very short cycle (lmp 10-24). My original due date with that lmp was 7-31, but scan right before 12 weeks showed me farther along (because of my very short cycle).
Also, keep in mind that a scan after 12 weeks is not that accurate.
I went looking for figures, and found a claim that at 20w, 95% of estimates of fetal ages from scan will be within 11 days of accurate. OK that still means 5% won't, but this one would have to be more like 6 weeks out. I concur, #1 it is. (I was surprised: scans in second trimester seem to be more accurate than I thought for estimating gestational age. Maybe I'm confused by their inaccuracy at estimating birth weight!)
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October 10th conception = July 3rd due date.
So #1 is it, with the baby maybe a bit small for dates unless "give or take a few days" means "two weeks later, about the time I was most likely to have ovulated."
You actually can do prenatal paternity testing from an amnio, but since it's pretty clear #1 is the father, I don't see there's burning need to do it now, rather than at birth.
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Also, keep in mind that a scan after 12 weeks is not that accurate.
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