Olympics preview part 4: more men's singles.
Here's part two of my men's singles preview, since the darn thing got too long for one post, and that's with the guys I convinced myself to cut. The first half of the alphabet is here, and you should read that post before you read this one.
Kozuka Takahiko
Short program at the 2009 Rostelecom Cup, to "Bold as Love" by Jimi Hendrix
Name: Kozuka Takahiko
Country: Japan
Age: 20
Free skate at the 2010 Japanese National Championships, to Guitar Concerto by Michael Kamen and Hotei Tomoyasu
Past competitive highlights: Two-time Japanese national silver medalist (2008-9) and reigning Japanese bronze medalist. 2006 Junior World Champion. He placed 6th at last year's World Championships.
He'll do well because: Kozuka seems to come out of nowhere and beat skaters ranked much higher than himself. He's a workhorse skater, with good flexibility and stamina. He tends to choose music and choreography that suit his somewhat unpolished and dorky skating style, and both of his programs have a rhythmic rock vibe that make him look good.
He might have trouble because: He's not a very memorable skater, and one mistake is often enough to banish him to the middle of the pack. His basic skating skills aren't great compared with those of other skaters on his level. He's been trying to include a quadruple toe loop in his free skate this year, but he hasn't been executing them very well and actually seems to be losing points on them.
Fun facts: Kozuka comes from a skating family. His father is a former Olympian in men's singles, and his mother used to be an ice dancer. He's been working with his coach, the venerable Nobuo Sato, since he was five years old. He loves rock and jazz music, and his enthusiasm for skating to those genres has convinced his coaches to let him ditch the classical standbys.
My opinion: Kozuka is a big pile of adorable, and I like both of his programs this year, largely because he seems to be having so much fun with them. I really wish he'd take some dance lessons and work on his posture, and I hope he doesn't risk a quad. If he skates clean, he might do pretty well, but I have a feeling it's not quite his time yet.
Stéphane Lambiel
Short program at the 2010 European Championships, to William Tell Overture by Gioachino Rossini
Name: Stéphane Lambiel
Country: Switzerland
Age: 24
Free skate at the 2010 European Championships, to La Traviata by Giuseppe Verdi
Past competitive highlights: 2006 Olympic silver medalist; he was 15th in 2002. Two-time World champion (2005-6) and 2007 bronze medalist. Two-time Grand Prix Final champion (2006, 2008). Three-time and reigning European silver medalist (2006, 2008, 2010). Nine-time Swiss national champion.
He'll do well because: He has a beautiful, consistent quadruple toe loop, and he can usually do it in combination with a triple toe loop. He is possibly the best male spinner that the sport has ever seen. His record of Olympic and World success means that he knows how to keep his head together and might mean that the judges give him the benefit of the doubt.
He might have trouble because: He's been suffering from a muscle tear in his groin severe enough that he announced his retirement from the sport last year. He's recovered somewhat, but the injury has permanently robbed him of a triple axel, a jump that every other top male skater can do well. More generally, he's a skater who peaked early - he was only 19 years old when he won his first world title - and who may have worn out his body too much to be competitive anymore.
Fun facts: Lambiel loves ladybugs and collects them for good luck. He's a bona fide celebrity in Switzerland, where he's known as Le Petit Prince, after the St. Exupery book. He has a tumultuous relationship with his longtime coach, Peter Gruetter; in 2008, he stormed off to study with Galina Zmievskaya in New Jersey, training alongside Johnny Weir, and announced his retirement due to injury shortly thereafter. He dated the Italian ladies' skater Carolina Kostner as a teenager, but now he's ostentatiously coy about his sexuality, playing pronoun games with the press, which is not easy in French.
My opinion: Lambiel is one of my all-time favorite skaters to watch, but I'm skeptical about his chances here. He skates old and tired now, and I'd rather remember him as he was at his peak four years ago. Still, because he is so damned adorable and his spins are like porn, I would be thrilled if he took home a second Olympic medal. It would be a triumphant postscript to a fabulous career.
Evan Lysacek
Short program at the 2010 US National Championships, to The Firebird by Igor Stravinsky
Name: Evan Lysacek
Country: USA
Age: 24
Free skate at the 2010 US National Championships, to Scheherezade by Nikolai Rimsky-Korsakov
Past competitive highlights: Reigning World champion (2009) and two-time World bronze medalist (2005-6). Two-time US national champion (2007-8); two-time national bronze medalist (2005, 2009); two-time and reigning national silver medalist (2006, 2010). Two-time Four Continents champion (2005, 2007). Reigning Grand Prix Final champion (2009). He placed fourth at the 2006 Olympics.
He'll do well because: When he's on, he's absolutely terrific. He uses his unusual body type (tall and beanpole-thin) to his advantage in beautiful spins and fast, intricate footwork. His stamina is excellent, and he recovers well mentally from mistakes, so his programs almost never go off the rails. He's the reigning world champion, which will put him in the judges' favor.
He might have trouble because: He's suffering from a foot injury and therefore won't be doing a quadruple toe loop, a jump that he often underrotates or falls on anyway. He also has poor technique on his triple axel and doesn't always rotate that fully.
Fun facts: Despite his Czech last name, Lysacek is mostly of Greek and Italian descent. Like everyone in L.A., he is an aspiring actor; he's taken acting classes and appeared in a short film. His costumes this year were designed by Vera Wang. He is a total rock snob, and even I have to admit he has excellent taste in music. His coach is Frank Carroll, who used to work with Michelle Kwan, and who annaalamode worships like a god.
My opinion: I have been very good up to this point, you guys. Although I enjoy Lysacek's skating a lot when he's hitting his elements, I think he is unredeemably douchey off the ice in all kinds of ways, and it totally overshadows his skating for me. My friends and I have mean names for him. That said, he's definitely a medal contender, and the patriotic part of me would love to see him take one home for the USA.
Oda Nobunari
Short program at the 2009 Grand Prix Final, to a modern arrangement of Totentanz by Franz Liszt
Name: Oda Nobunari
Country: Japan
Age: 22
Free skate at the 2010 Japanese National Championships, to a Charlie Chaplin medley
Past competitive highlights: 2009 Japanese national champion; three-time national silver medalist (2006, 2007, 2010) and 2005 bronze medalist. 2005 World Junior champion. 2006 Four Continents champion. He was seventh at last year's World Championships.
He'll do well because: He's an excellent all-around skater, with clean, consistent jumps, including a quad, and lots of difficulty built into the choreography of his programs. He used to be a very technical skater, but this year, he's figured out how to put a lot of personality into his programs.
He might have trouble because: He's a bit of a loose cannon, and it seems like he often forgets he's competing and loses control of his mental game. On several occasions, he's done too many jumps in his free skate, and it tends to cost him a medal. He often has spectacular early seasons and then fades at the really important competitions.
Fun facts: Oda was arrested for drunk driving on his moped in the summer of 2007. The Japanese figure skating federation only suspended him for the fall, but Oda sat out the entire season, using the time off to regroup mentally. He's a direct descendant of a famous medieval samurai warrior.
My opinion: I like Oda fine - he's kind of in the middle of the pack for me, even after the amazing pre-season performance of his Chaplin program that I got to see live last fall. He's got beautiful jump technique and an adorable smile. On his best days, he's incredible, but he has way too many bad days for me to think of him as a favorite for a medal. Maybe he'll prove me wrong and walk away with these Olympics - he's certainly capable of it.
Evgeni Plushenko
Short program at the 2010 European Championships, to Concierto de Aranjuez by Joaquin Rodrigo
Name: Evgeni Plushenko
Country: Russia
Age: 27
Free skate at the 2010 European Championships, to "Tango Amore" by Edvin Marton
Past competitive highlights: 2006 Olympic champion and 2002 Olympic silver medalist. Three-time World champion (2001, 2003, 2004); silver in 1999 and bronze in 1998. Six-time European champion (2000, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2010) and three-time European silver medalist (1998, 1999, 2004). Four-time Grand Prix Final champion. Nine-time Russian national champion (1999-2003, 2005-6, 2010).
He'll do well because: He can do jumps that no other man in the sport is even remotely capable of. He will do a quadruple toe loop-triple toe loop combination in his short program and multiple quads in his free skate, and he will land each one perfectly. From a jumping standpoint, he is without a doubt the best athlete in the sport and one of the best that figure skating has ever seen.
He might have trouble because: He has nothing but jumps. He does very simple spins and footwork and not particularly well, basically throwing away points in those elements. While the judges often give him high marks for the artistic components of the sport, many people feel that those high marks are undeserved, and Plushenko himself has admitted that he has no transitions and minimal choreography.
Fun facts: Plushenko retired from competitive skating after winning the 2006 Olympics, but the Russian skating federation lured him back for one last Games. Since then, he has achieved some success as a TV personality in Russia, where he is a major celebrity. He is married to the record producer Yana Rudkovskaya and has a three-year-old son, Egor, from his first marriage.
My opinion: Most skating fans have accepted that Plushenko will win his second Olympic gold medal in Vancouver, and almost none of us are happy about it. While comebacks from retirement can sometimes be touching (as with Shen & Zhao in pairs), this seems like a cynical PR move on Plushenko's part and a desperate move for Russia, whose singles program has pretty much collapsed since Plushenko's retirement. His lack of artistry or musicality and his smug, entitled attitude on the ice make him unpleasant to watch, and they leave many casual fans wondering why more entertaining skaters can't come close to his scores. Evgeni Plushenko is one of the greatest men's skaters ever, from an athletic standpoint, but he's ruining my Olympics, and more to the point, he's ruining the Olympics of a whole bunch of guys who deserved a fairer shot at a gold medal.
Takahashi Daisuke
Short program at the 2010 Japanese National Championships, to "Eye" by COBA
Name: Takahashi Daisuke
Country: Japan
Age: 23
Free skate at the 2010 Japanese National Championships, to the soundtrack from La Strada by Nino Rota
Past competitive highlights: Four-time Japanese national champion (2006-2008, 2010). 2008 Four Continents champion. 2007 World silver medalist. He placed eighth at the 2006 Olympics.
He'll do well because: He is a dynamic, well-rounded skater who is both athletically and artistically gifted. He excels in the short program, often building up a lead that helps him out even when he struggles in his free skate. His intricate, spirited footwork and unique spin positions are among the best in the sport.
He might have trouble because: He's a bit fragile psychologically and often falls apart in the free skate after making a mistake. He can do a quadruple toe loop and has a nice triple axel, but he's liable to miss both and won't try the quad in his short program. He had to sit out the entire 2008-9 season due to a serious injury, and some fans fear that he has not yet recovered physically or mentally - and perhaps never will.
Fun facts: Takahashi literally became a figure skater for the costumes: his mother tried to sign him up for hockey, but he didn't want to wear all that padding. He's very involved in his music and costume choices, hoping to push the boundaries of the sport in both, influenced by Japanese hip-hop culture and designers such as Comme des Garçons.
My opinion: I tend to forget how much I love Takahashi until I watch him skate, and then I get all ganbatte Nihon! [go Japan!] inside. I love how much personality he's able to put out on the ice, how low he gets in his sit spins, and how easy his jump takeoffs look. I think he's good for the sport because he takes artistic risks in his competitive programs and strikes a good balance between representing his country and being himself. He's one of many men who's good enough to earn a medal and would deserve it.
Tomáš Verner
Short program at the 2010 European Championships, to the soundtrack from Zorba the Greek by Mikis Theodorakis
Name: Tomáš Verner
Country: Czech Republic
Age: 23
Free skate at the 2009 Trophée Eric Bompard, to the soundtrack from The Godfather by Nino Rota
Past competitive highlights: Six-time Czech national champion (2002-4 and 2006-8) and two-time and reigning national silver medalist (2001, 2010). 2008 European champion and 2007 European silver medalist. He was 4th at last year's World Championships and 18th at the 2006 Olympics.
He'll do well because: On his best days, he's a strong all-around skater with a gigantic triple axel and a solid quadruple toe loop. He's a charismatic skater and one of the few who consistently projects traditional masculinity and an artistic connection with the music - which the judges love.
He might have trouble because: He is probably the most inconsistent and unpredictable man in figure skating: in 2008, he won the European Championships but placed 15th at Worlds. If he makes a mistake early in his free skate, he melts down, sometimes not landing even one triple jump. And this season has been nothing but meltdowns; he even lost his national title.
Fun facts: Verner says that he started skating at age five because he had a crush on a girl in his kindergarten and followed her to the rink. Like me, he refuses to jinx the Olympics by making predictions: when a journalist asked him who he thought would make the podium, he listed legendary past skaters Viktor Petrenko, Alexei Urmanov, and Josef Sabovcik.
My opinion: Personality-wise, I think Verner is a breath of fresh air, and I'd certainly love to see the Verner who lands all his jumps and skates like he's taking a walk in the park. But judging from his performances so far this season, I suspect we're going to see the Verner who does a lot of double jumps and falls during his footwork. I predict he'll place somewhere between first and seventeenth.
Johnny Weir
Short program at the 2010 US National Championships, to "I Love You, I Hate You" by Raul di Blasio
Name: Johnny Weir
Country: USA
Age: 25
Free skate at the 2009 Grand Prix Final, to a medley titled Fallen Angels
Past competitive highlights: Three-time US National Champion (2004-6); 2008 national silver medalist, and two-time and reigning national bronze medalist (2007, 2010). 2008 World bronze medalist. 2001 Junior World champion. He placed fifth at the 2006 Olympics.
He'll do well because: He is a force of nature and a cult of personality with all the talent in the world. His jump technique is beautiful, and his clockwise jumping (most skaters rotate counterclockwise) actually makes toe jumps easier. He knows this is his last chance at an Olympic medal, so he's going to fight like hell for it.
He might have trouble because: His personality is totally incompatible with high-level athletic achievement, and he lacks discipline in training and focus during competitions. He tends to make mistakes on easy jumps that he would never screw up in practice, and he often looks distracted and passionless. He has never landed a clean quad jump in competition and will probably not even attempt one here.
Fun facts: Where do you even start with Johnny Weir? He became interested in figure skating when he was eleven years old and saw Oksana Baiul win the 1994 Olympics; he taught himself how to do an axel on the frozen corn fields near his house in rural Pennsylvania. He's obsessed with Russia and speaks fluent Russian; he's gotten in trouble for wearing Russian training gear at international events. (He's gotten in trouble for a lot of things. This post is not long enough.) He has his own reality show on the Sundance Channel. He's rooming with the female ice dancer Tanith Belbin in the Olympic Village and has decorated their suite with pink bath mats, scented candles, and posters of Audrey Hepburn and Lady Gaga.
My opinion: Oh, Johnny Weir, you break my fangirl heart. I love this boy so much, on and off the ice, but rooting for him is like rooting for the Chicago Cubs: you go into it knowing that no matter how good things look at the beginning, he's always going to break your heart. But I'm a Cubs fan, too, and I have hope that Johnny will find two last perfect performances at these Olympics. If he wins a medal of any color, he'll be proving everyone wrong - including himself.
Kozuka Takahiko
Short program at the 2009 Rostelecom Cup, to "Bold as Love" by Jimi Hendrix
Name: Kozuka Takahiko
Country: Japan
Age: 20
Free skate at the 2010 Japanese National Championships, to Guitar Concerto by Michael Kamen and Hotei Tomoyasu
Past competitive highlights: Two-time Japanese national silver medalist (2008-9) and reigning Japanese bronze medalist. 2006 Junior World Champion. He placed 6th at last year's World Championships.
He'll do well because: Kozuka seems to come out of nowhere and beat skaters ranked much higher than himself. He's a workhorse skater, with good flexibility and stamina. He tends to choose music and choreography that suit his somewhat unpolished and dorky skating style, and both of his programs have a rhythmic rock vibe that make him look good.
He might have trouble because: He's not a very memorable skater, and one mistake is often enough to banish him to the middle of the pack. His basic skating skills aren't great compared with those of other skaters on his level. He's been trying to include a quadruple toe loop in his free skate this year, but he hasn't been executing them very well and actually seems to be losing points on them.
Click to viewFun facts: Kozuka comes from a skating family. His father is a former Olympian in men's singles, and his mother used to be an ice dancer. He's been working with his coach, the venerable Nobuo Sato, since he was five years old. He loves rock and jazz music, and his enthusiasm for skating to those genres has convinced his coaches to let him ditch the classical standbys.
My opinion: Kozuka is a big pile of adorable, and I like both of his programs this year, largely because he seems to be having so much fun with them. I really wish he'd take some dance lessons and work on his posture, and I hope he doesn't risk a quad. If he skates clean, he might do pretty well, but I have a feeling it's not quite his time yet.
Stéphane Lambiel
Short program at the 2010 European Championships, to William Tell Overture by Gioachino Rossini
Name: Stéphane Lambiel
Country: Switzerland
Age: 24
Free skate at the 2010 European Championships, to La Traviata by Giuseppe Verdi
Past competitive highlights: 2006 Olympic silver medalist; he was 15th in 2002. Two-time World champion (2005-6) and 2007 bronze medalist. Two-time Grand Prix Final champion (2006, 2008). Three-time and reigning European silver medalist (2006, 2008, 2010). Nine-time Swiss national champion.
He'll do well because: He has a beautiful, consistent quadruple toe loop, and he can usually do it in combination with a triple toe loop. He is possibly the best male spinner that the sport has ever seen. His record of Olympic and World success means that he knows how to keep his head together and might mean that the judges give him the benefit of the doubt.
He might have trouble because: He's been suffering from a muscle tear in his groin severe enough that he announced his retirement from the sport last year. He's recovered somewhat, but the injury has permanently robbed him of a triple axel, a jump that every other top male skater can do well. More generally, he's a skater who peaked early - he was only 19 years old when he won his first world title - and who may have worn out his body too much to be competitive anymore.
Fun facts: Lambiel loves ladybugs and collects them for good luck. He's a bona fide celebrity in Switzerland, where he's known as Le Petit Prince, after the St. Exupery book. He has a tumultuous relationship with his longtime coach, Peter Gruetter; in 2008, he stormed off to study with Galina Zmievskaya in New Jersey, training alongside Johnny Weir, and announced his retirement due to injury shortly thereafter. He dated the Italian ladies' skater Carolina Kostner as a teenager, but now he's ostentatiously coy about his sexuality, playing pronoun games with the press, which is not easy in French.
My opinion: Lambiel is one of my all-time favorite skaters to watch, but I'm skeptical about his chances here. He skates old and tired now, and I'd rather remember him as he was at his peak four years ago. Still, because he is so damned adorable and his spins are like porn, I would be thrilled if he took home a second Olympic medal. It would be a triumphant postscript to a fabulous career.
Evan Lysacek
Short program at the 2010 US National Championships, to The Firebird by Igor Stravinsky
Name: Evan Lysacek
Country: USA
Age: 24
Free skate at the 2010 US National Championships, to Scheherezade by Nikolai Rimsky-Korsakov
Past competitive highlights: Reigning World champion (2009) and two-time World bronze medalist (2005-6). Two-time US national champion (2007-8); two-time national bronze medalist (2005, 2009); two-time and reigning national silver medalist (2006, 2010). Two-time Four Continents champion (2005, 2007). Reigning Grand Prix Final champion (2009). He placed fourth at the 2006 Olympics.
He'll do well because: When he's on, he's absolutely terrific. He uses his unusual body type (tall and beanpole-thin) to his advantage in beautiful spins and fast, intricate footwork. His stamina is excellent, and he recovers well mentally from mistakes, so his programs almost never go off the rails. He's the reigning world champion, which will put him in the judges' favor.
He might have trouble because: He's suffering from a foot injury and therefore won't be doing a quadruple toe loop, a jump that he often underrotates or falls on anyway. He also has poor technique on his triple axel and doesn't always rotate that fully.
Fun facts: Despite his Czech last name, Lysacek is mostly of Greek and Italian descent. Like everyone in L.A., he is an aspiring actor; he's taken acting classes and appeared in a short film. His costumes this year were designed by Vera Wang. He is a total rock snob, and even I have to admit he has excellent taste in music. His coach is Frank Carroll, who used to work with Michelle Kwan, and who annaalamode worships like a god.
My opinion: I have been very good up to this point, you guys. Although I enjoy Lysacek's skating a lot when he's hitting his elements, I think he is unredeemably douchey off the ice in all kinds of ways, and it totally overshadows his skating for me. My friends and I have mean names for him. That said, he's definitely a medal contender, and the patriotic part of me would love to see him take one home for the USA.
Oda Nobunari
Short program at the 2009 Grand Prix Final, to a modern arrangement of Totentanz by Franz Liszt
Name: Oda Nobunari
Country: Japan
Age: 22
Free skate at the 2010 Japanese National Championships, to a Charlie Chaplin medley
Past competitive highlights: 2009 Japanese national champion; three-time national silver medalist (2006, 2007, 2010) and 2005 bronze medalist. 2005 World Junior champion. 2006 Four Continents champion. He was seventh at last year's World Championships.
He'll do well because: He's an excellent all-around skater, with clean, consistent jumps, including a quad, and lots of difficulty built into the choreography of his programs. He used to be a very technical skater, but this year, he's figured out how to put a lot of personality into his programs.
He might have trouble because: He's a bit of a loose cannon, and it seems like he often forgets he's competing and loses control of his mental game. On several occasions, he's done too many jumps in his free skate, and it tends to cost him a medal. He often has spectacular early seasons and then fades at the really important competitions.
Fun facts: Oda was arrested for drunk driving on his moped in the summer of 2007. The Japanese figure skating federation only suspended him for the fall, but Oda sat out the entire season, using the time off to regroup mentally. He's a direct descendant of a famous medieval samurai warrior.
My opinion: I like Oda fine - he's kind of in the middle of the pack for me, even after the amazing pre-season performance of his Chaplin program that I got to see live last fall. He's got beautiful jump technique and an adorable smile. On his best days, he's incredible, but he has way too many bad days for me to think of him as a favorite for a medal. Maybe he'll prove me wrong and walk away with these Olympics - he's certainly capable of it.
Evgeni Plushenko
Short program at the 2010 European Championships, to Concierto de Aranjuez by Joaquin Rodrigo
Name: Evgeni Plushenko
Country: Russia
Age: 27
Free skate at the 2010 European Championships, to "Tango Amore" by Edvin Marton
Past competitive highlights: 2006 Olympic champion and 2002 Olympic silver medalist. Three-time World champion (2001, 2003, 2004); silver in 1999 and bronze in 1998. Six-time European champion (2000, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2010) and three-time European silver medalist (1998, 1999, 2004). Four-time Grand Prix Final champion. Nine-time Russian national champion (1999-2003, 2005-6, 2010).
He'll do well because: He can do jumps that no other man in the sport is even remotely capable of. He will do a quadruple toe loop-triple toe loop combination in his short program and multiple quads in his free skate, and he will land each one perfectly. From a jumping standpoint, he is without a doubt the best athlete in the sport and one of the best that figure skating has ever seen.
He might have trouble because: He has nothing but jumps. He does very simple spins and footwork and not particularly well, basically throwing away points in those elements. While the judges often give him high marks for the artistic components of the sport, many people feel that those high marks are undeserved, and Plushenko himself has admitted that he has no transitions and minimal choreography.
Fun facts: Plushenko retired from competitive skating after winning the 2006 Olympics, but the Russian skating federation lured him back for one last Games. Since then, he has achieved some success as a TV personality in Russia, where he is a major celebrity. He is married to the record producer Yana Rudkovskaya and has a three-year-old son, Egor, from his first marriage.
My opinion: Most skating fans have accepted that Plushenko will win his second Olympic gold medal in Vancouver, and almost none of us are happy about it. While comebacks from retirement can sometimes be touching (as with Shen & Zhao in pairs), this seems like a cynical PR move on Plushenko's part and a desperate move for Russia, whose singles program has pretty much collapsed since Plushenko's retirement. His lack of artistry or musicality and his smug, entitled attitude on the ice make him unpleasant to watch, and they leave many casual fans wondering why more entertaining skaters can't come close to his scores. Evgeni Plushenko is one of the greatest men's skaters ever, from an athletic standpoint, but he's ruining my Olympics, and more to the point, he's ruining the Olympics of a whole bunch of guys who deserved a fairer shot at a gold medal.
Takahashi Daisuke
Short program at the 2010 Japanese National Championships, to "Eye" by COBA
Name: Takahashi Daisuke
Country: Japan
Age: 23
Free skate at the 2010 Japanese National Championships, to the soundtrack from La Strada by Nino Rota
Past competitive highlights: Four-time Japanese national champion (2006-2008, 2010). 2008 Four Continents champion. 2007 World silver medalist. He placed eighth at the 2006 Olympics.
He'll do well because: He is a dynamic, well-rounded skater who is both athletically and artistically gifted. He excels in the short program, often building up a lead that helps him out even when he struggles in his free skate. His intricate, spirited footwork and unique spin positions are among the best in the sport.
He might have trouble because: He's a bit fragile psychologically and often falls apart in the free skate after making a mistake. He can do a quadruple toe loop and has a nice triple axel, but he's liable to miss both and won't try the quad in his short program. He had to sit out the entire 2008-9 season due to a serious injury, and some fans fear that he has not yet recovered physically or mentally - and perhaps never will.
Fun facts: Takahashi literally became a figure skater for the costumes: his mother tried to sign him up for hockey, but he didn't want to wear all that padding. He's very involved in his music and costume choices, hoping to push the boundaries of the sport in both, influenced by Japanese hip-hop culture and designers such as Comme des Garçons.
My opinion: I tend to forget how much I love Takahashi until I watch him skate, and then I get all ganbatte Nihon! [go Japan!] inside. I love how much personality he's able to put out on the ice, how low he gets in his sit spins, and how easy his jump takeoffs look. I think he's good for the sport because he takes artistic risks in his competitive programs and strikes a good balance between representing his country and being himself. He's one of many men who's good enough to earn a medal and would deserve it.
Tomáš Verner
Short program at the 2010 European Championships, to the soundtrack from Zorba the Greek by Mikis Theodorakis
Name: Tomáš Verner
Country: Czech Republic
Age: 23
Free skate at the 2009 Trophée Eric Bompard, to the soundtrack from The Godfather by Nino Rota
Past competitive highlights: Six-time Czech national champion (2002-4 and 2006-8) and two-time and reigning national silver medalist (2001, 2010). 2008 European champion and 2007 European silver medalist. He was 4th at last year's World Championships and 18th at the 2006 Olympics.
He'll do well because: On his best days, he's a strong all-around skater with a gigantic triple axel and a solid quadruple toe loop. He's a charismatic skater and one of the few who consistently projects traditional masculinity and an artistic connection with the music - which the judges love.
He might have trouble because: He is probably the most inconsistent and unpredictable man in figure skating: in 2008, he won the European Championships but placed 15th at Worlds. If he makes a mistake early in his free skate, he melts down, sometimes not landing even one triple jump. And this season has been nothing but meltdowns; he even lost his national title.
Fun facts: Verner says that he started skating at age five because he had a crush on a girl in his kindergarten and followed her to the rink. Like me, he refuses to jinx the Olympics by making predictions: when a journalist asked him who he thought would make the podium, he listed legendary past skaters Viktor Petrenko, Alexei Urmanov, and Josef Sabovcik.
My opinion: Personality-wise, I think Verner is a breath of fresh air, and I'd certainly love to see the Verner who lands all his jumps and skates like he's taking a walk in the park. But judging from his performances so far this season, I suspect we're going to see the Verner who does a lot of double jumps and falls during his footwork. I predict he'll place somewhere between first and seventeenth.
Johnny Weir
Short program at the 2010 US National Championships, to "I Love You, I Hate You" by Raul di Blasio
Name: Johnny Weir
Country: USA
Age: 25
Free skate at the 2009 Grand Prix Final, to a medley titled Fallen Angels
Past competitive highlights: Three-time US National Champion (2004-6); 2008 national silver medalist, and two-time and reigning national bronze medalist (2007, 2010). 2008 World bronze medalist. 2001 Junior World champion. He placed fifth at the 2006 Olympics.
He'll do well because: He is a force of nature and a cult of personality with all the talent in the world. His jump technique is beautiful, and his clockwise jumping (most skaters rotate counterclockwise) actually makes toe jumps easier. He knows this is his last chance at an Olympic medal, so he's going to fight like hell for it.
He might have trouble because: His personality is totally incompatible with high-level athletic achievement, and he lacks discipline in training and focus during competitions. He tends to make mistakes on easy jumps that he would never screw up in practice, and he often looks distracted and passionless. He has never landed a clean quad jump in competition and will probably not even attempt one here.
Fun facts: Where do you even start with Johnny Weir? He became interested in figure skating when he was eleven years old and saw Oksana Baiul win the 1994 Olympics; he taught himself how to do an axel on the frozen corn fields near his house in rural Pennsylvania. He's obsessed with Russia and speaks fluent Russian; he's gotten in trouble for wearing Russian training gear at international events. (He's gotten in trouble for a lot of things. This post is not long enough.) He has his own reality show on the Sundance Channel. He's rooming with the female ice dancer Tanith Belbin in the Olympic Village and has decorated their suite with pink bath mats, scented candles, and posters of Audrey Hepburn and Lady Gaga.
My opinion: Oh, Johnny Weir, you break my fangirl heart. I love this boy so much, on and off the ice, but rooting for him is like rooting for the Chicago Cubs: you go into it knowing that no matter how good things look at the beginning, he's always going to break your heart. But I'm a Cubs fan, too, and I have hope that Johnny will find two last perfect performances at these Olympics. If he wins a medal of any color, he'll be proving everyone wrong - including himself.