Comments | mrlloyd: Race to the future

mrlloyd

Race to the future

Nov 26, 2010 08:58

The new IEA world energy outlook is out, and contains an interesting, and very important change. After years of saying peak oil was a fantastical myth the IEA now say that not only is it real, but that conventional oil production has already peaked (In 2005) and that production of all oil will be more or less peaking by 2035 ( Read more... )

Comments 2

condign November 26 2010, 08:59:57 UTC

Isn't that marginally good news for me? IIRC, prices had to be $125 (in 2005, not 2009 dollars) for me to be paying anything.

mrlloyd November 26 2010, 13:23:55 UTC

Depends. If you think the IEA are making the best assessment possible then yes. If things pan out as predicted here you'll be in the good to about the value of a few bottles of wine a year for the next 20 years.

On the other hand, unconventional oil in the mix limits my downside, (barring a complete collapse in global demand for oil, in which case I'll be too happy to care).

If you think, as I do, that the IEA is subject to a lot of political pressure to sugar coat their projections then there might be some warning signs for your side of the bet.