Comments | mrlloyd: A happier path than anyone thought likely?

mrlloyd

A happier path than anyone thought likely?

Mar 18, 2011 14:12

So far this has got to be the West's most successful intervention in the Arab world to date. I think it's absolutely key that *everyone* was against Gaddafi. The Arab league won't help him, Russia and China aren't prepared to veto things on his behalf, his neighbours want rid of him to the extent that Egypt is reported to be arming the rebels. That ( Read more... )

Comments 5

metame March 18 2011, 13:16:48 UTC

As I understand it he has tried to "solve" the problem that regimes that start with a military coups are usually ended by military coups. He's basically stripped the standing army bare, and instead relies on mercenaries from outside.

I guess those mercenaries don't have any interest in running the show, but perhaps they can be bought off eventually.

And there must be other factions that can think this is their chance for something.

mrlloyd March 18 2011, 13:23:56 UTC

I think there are elite Libyan units as well as mercenaries. Presumably close to Tripoli in best Praetorian fashion.

More of an issue might be the number of senior officers who are also family members and so - presumably - reliable.

Seems premature to call it a successful intervention a_llusive March 21 2011, 20:44:29 UTC

Certainly the most successful bid for concerted UN action in this kind of situation though.

Re: Seems premature to call it a successful intervention mrlloyd March 25 2011, 10:15:03 UTC

Yeah, I got a bit carried away by Gaddaffi announcing a ceasefire before military action started. Should know better than to trust the spokespeople of homicidal dictators.

a_llusive March 25 2011, 15:56:57 UTC

http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/defence-and-security-blog/2011/mar/25/gaddafi-assassination-british 'By saying Gaddafi was a target, ministers went a long way to sabotaging those responsible for the conduct of the military operations. ... By identifying Gaddafi as a target, ministers have laid those conducting military operations to the charge that "if you kill him, it was premeditated, and if you don't you have failed".' CF http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/21/world/africa/21assess.html?_r=1&hp and other articles

I really ought to reread the UN resolution but it appears that, for the UK and US at least, military action has started without an endgame situation/clear goal for declaring it over.