Five Hundred and TWO
Yogi Berra once said words to the effect that "half of baseball is 90% mental." The most important thing to know about the role of closer is that, using Yogi's unique brand of math, maybe four-fifths of being an effective closer is 110% mental. Sure, there are the lockdown elites - the 2002 Eric Gagnes, 2008 Mariano Riveras and 2004-2008 best-closer-in-baseball Joe Nathans (Chuck, none of the people you mentioned were truly "lights out", especially K-Rod, and I'm surprised that in an article where you touched upon how closers rack up saves when given the chance to do so, good or bad, and yet overlooked the fact that K-Rod had the most save opportunities of any closer in 2008, due to the relatively anemic small ball the Angels - excepting Mark Texeira - tended to play, and so was pretty much destined to set the single-season saves record). But they're not really, truly all that necessary - all a team really needs is a strikeout pitcher with a mid-3's ERA, a sub-1.25 WHIP, and the mental toughness to handle the 9th inning pressure, because that pitcher is gonna save 9 out of 10 games in chances. Think about it - it's relatively uncommon for a team to score three runs in an inning, and so it follows that many saves are not very hard to earn. Yes, there's no doubt that your closer should be your best bullpen pitcher. What I'm trying to tell the Brewers fans here is that, with the money we have available in Doug Melvin's budget, we don't have the money to acquire a "lights out" closer AND a top (or near the top) of the rotation starting pitcher. As such, $6 million for Trevor Hoffman makes me smile.
Trevor had a respectable 3.77 ERA last year. His WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) was an excellent 1.037, actually lower than his previous year's mark of around 1.1. Park-adjusted statistics aren't so generous to him, as he plays in San Diego's PETCO Park, known not only as where the pets go, but also where home runs go to die in outfielders' gloves at the warning track. Trevor does not walk people - his WHIP should probably be regarded as "wHIP" instead. However, he gave up eight home runs last year, and two home runs the year before - do the math, and also note that he hasn't given up more than 6 homers since 2002. All his red-latter stats are on the decline over the past few years. As the brilliant Barack Obama put it, you can put lipstick on a (pit bull) pig, but it's still a pig. Trevor's best years are behind him, and when you move from PETCO to Miller Park, the cynic in me predicts that Trevor Hoffman will have a career-worst year, disregarding his first two seasons. Not a 2007 Gagne-in-Boston-style implosion - more like an ERA of just below 4.00, a WHIP that's back up around 1.11 or higher, and somewhere between 5-10 home runs. Think about that: a home run off a closer is often a blown save.
The question is: would a career-worst year for Trevor Hoffman be acceptable for the Brewers? After all, a career-worst year for the all-time saves leader (caveats regarding the save statistic above notwithstanding) is probably better than most relievers could do in a given year. Also, there is some light at the end of the tunnel. Trevor started 2008 horribly, but got much better as the year progressed. This may signal that his 2009 season may actually turn out BETTER than 2008 - if the trend holds true. And we all hope it does.
My opinion is that for Brewers and Hoffman, the price and priorities aligned perfectly. We need to spend the top dollars on someone else - Chuck says a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, whereas I would be more inclined to get another #3 or #4 pitcher and a true leadoff hitter (I have been harping on this for two years now - the Brewers lose games because, with the exception of the Prince, they have no plate discipline, plain and simple. There is something seriously wrong with our team when our cleanup guy leads the league in extra-base hits, but isn't anywhere near the top in RBIs!). Spending $6 million on Trevor Hoffman is a worthy gambit, and in my book a hell of a lot smarter than paying $10+ million or more for a super-elite closer. And Hoffman most likely will be able to bring enough, just enough, of his old self to the bullpen for the Brewers to be confident of late-inning leads. If Trevor's change-up can buckle Derek Lee's knees, if his location and command can send Albert Pujols packing, then we'll have ourselves a fine time during the 9th inning of many a game. He's not everything the Brewers need, but he's the best they can get if they spend their money wisely - and in this case, that's good enough.