Economic Situation
The unemployment figures are out! Unemployment has risen to 8.1%. That, I am afraid, is the good news.
Everyone likes to compare the current situation to the Great Depression. The claim is that unemployment hit 25%. Really? Where did this number come from?
Today, unemployment only include people who are both unemployed and looking for work. This Great Depression figure includes people who have given up looking for work, people with part time work, and people with temporary work-relief jobs.
From the figures released today, we see that 12.5 million are unemployed, 731,000 are discouraged and 8.6 million work part-time but are looking for full time-work. I am not including those doing temporary work and those who are working part-time and not looking for full-time work. This is me being nice with the numbers.
So that gives us 21.8 million unemployed by my nice version of the Great Depression measure of unemployment. What is the U.S. workforce? 12.5 million is 8.1% of the workforce means the workforce is 154.3 million. Add in those that weren't counted before (discouraged and part-time workers) gives us a workforce of 163.6 million.
My calculation for comparable unemployment to the Great Depression? 13.3% of our workforce is unemployed. Estimates of unemployment during the great depression which include those with temporary jobs (which I include as employed) give peak unemployment during the Great Depression between 9% and 16%.
What does this mean? Unemployment has reached depression era levels.
Assume that the unemployment during the Great Depression was 25%. 13.3% is still a lot closer than the 8.1% that is inaccurately being compared to the Great Depression figure.
ERRATA: In my accounting of the workforce, I double-counted the part-time in search of full-time work. They were already part of the 154.3 million workers. (I'll take you for a walk in a minute, Dio. Let me finish this correction.) The actual work force should have been 155.0 million. The actual rate should have been 14.1% and not the previously reported 13.3%
People hesitate to call this a depression. I think we are in a depression. Since Great Depression is taken, how about we call this the Really Good depression?
ADDENDUM: Another demographic missing from current unemployment figures is the homeless population.
Everyone likes to compare the current situation to the Great Depression. The claim is that unemployment hit 25%. Really? Where did this number come from?
Today, unemployment only include people who are both unemployed and looking for work. This Great Depression figure includes people who have given up looking for work, people with part time work, and people with temporary work-relief jobs.
From the figures released today, we see that 12.5 million are unemployed, 731,000 are discouraged and 8.6 million work part-time but are looking for full time-work. I am not including those doing temporary work and those who are working part-time and not looking for full-time work. This is me being nice with the numbers.
So that gives us 21.8 million unemployed by my nice version of the Great Depression measure of unemployment. What is the U.S. workforce? 12.5 million is 8.1% of the workforce means the workforce is 154.3 million. Add in those that weren't counted before (discouraged and part-time workers) gives us a workforce of 163.6 million.
My calculation for comparable unemployment to the Great Depression? 13.3% of our workforce is unemployed. Estimates of unemployment during the great depression which include those with temporary jobs (which I include as employed) give peak unemployment during the Great Depression between 9% and 16%.
What does this mean? Unemployment has reached depression era levels.
Assume that the unemployment during the Great Depression was 25%. 13.3% is still a lot closer than the 8.1% that is inaccurately being compared to the Great Depression figure.
ERRATA: In my accounting of the workforce, I double-counted the part-time in search of full-time work. They were already part of the 154.3 million workers. (I'll take you for a walk in a minute, Dio. Let me finish this correction.) The actual work force should have been 155.0 million. The actual rate should have been 14.1% and not the previously reported 13.3%
People hesitate to call this a depression. I think we are in a depression. Since Great Depression is taken, how about we call this the Really Good depression?
ADDENDUM: Another demographic missing from current unemployment figures is the homeless population.