(no subject)
I just want to preface this by saying yes, I am a Bears fan so I do have a biased point of view, however, this analysis has been written for the most part with an objective viewpoint, gathering information from both sides and judging accordingly.
The Colts are a 7-point favorite to win against the Bears in Super Bowl XLI. There are several possible reasons for this. Some arguments are that the AFC was a LOT better than the NFC this year, and the Colts had a much tougher strength of schedule than the Bears, especially in the playoffs, having to overcome two very powerful teams, the Patriots and the Ravens. Also, their rally to beat the Patriots from an 18-point deficit is a record-breaking achievement. However, the Bears have proved to have a better defense than the Patriots, but perhaps not as good as the Ravens defense which the Colts did handle well. But the main reason the Ravens lost was because of the terrible execution of their offense, in part because the Colts defense made plays, yes, but the Ravens offense also made stupid mistakes, like dropped passes, uncharacteristic inaccurate passes by Steve McNair, two interceptions and two fumbles. Offensively the Colts only scored 15 points against them, all field goals. Onto the Chiefs game. The Chiefs were 9-7 compared to the Colts 12-4. The Chiefs were ranked 16th in total defense during the regular season, and the Colts were ranked 3rd in total offense. The Colts defense performed incredibly well which is a big reason they were successful, the Chiefs didn't even get a first down until late in the third quarter, that's insane, so it should have been a blowout with Peyton Manning as the quarterback and that incredible domination of time of possession (39:23 Colts compared to Chiefs' 20:37), but Peyton and the offense did not play that well, only managing to score 23 points against the Chiefs 16th ranked defense, with the Colts being the 3rd ranked offense. In comparison the Bears scored 39 points against the Saints who are ranked 11th in defense, with the Bears being ranked 15th in offense.
We cannot forget the undeniable fact that the Bears have a better record than the Colts (15-3 to 15-4). Also, it can be argued that Rex Grossman has actually been playing better than Peyton Manning in the postseason. Peyton Manning and Rex Grossman have both thrown for 2 touchdown passes, with Grossman playing one less game than Peyton. Peyton has thrown 6 interceptions compared to Grossman's 1. True, Peyton has had more pass attempts therefore more chances to throw interceptions, but if you look at the actual ratio, 1 in 19 of Peyton's passes have been interceptions, and only 1 in 64 pass attempts for Grossman resulted in an interception. Peyton Manning is the heart of that team, and the main reason why they have been so successful through the years, and being consistent with his history, he's been underwhelmingly average in this postseason with a measly (for Peyton) 66.8 passer rating compared with Grossman's decent 75.4. The Bears have scored 7 touchdowns in two games compared to the Colts 6 touchdowns in THREE games. The Bears offense is extremely underestimated. But yes, the reason the Colts have been successful in the postseason is because of their defense stepping up, I agree, but their effort and stats have been decreasing with each successive game in the playoffs. 126 yards allowed vs. Chiefs, 244 yards allowed against Ravens, 319 allowed against Patriots. One reason for that is each successive team was better than the last, but that doesn't mean the trend won’t continue because the Bears, being in the Super Bowl, can be argued to be then successively better as well. The Colts have committed more penalties than the Bears in the last two games. Colts: 10 penalties for 71 yards, Bears: 6 penalties for 45 yards. That could be a factor. In the past two games, Grossman has only been sacked 3 times (with zero sacks in Saints game) compared to Peyton's 5. During the regular season, the Bears committed 40 sacks compared to Colts 25. Regarding sacks committed in the playoffs, in the past two games, Colts have caused 4 sacks for only 22 yards, compared to Bears 6 sacks for 51 yards. So much for the Colts defense being dominant. Putting pressure on the quarterback and getting to him is incredibly important, especially when it comes to stopping Peyton Manning. Another offensive statistic to throw out there, the Bears average score of points per game is #1 in the postseason, with 33, compared to Indianapolis 25.3. People are also forgetting the fact that even in the regular season, the Bears were TIED with the Colts (ranked 2nd) in average points per game (26.7).
Turnovers and field position have such an impact. In the past two games, the Bears have only had 2 turnovers compared to Colts' 5. Yes, the Colts have had 7 takeaways in the past two games compared with the Bears 5, but the Bears have been the cause for these takeaways more so than the Colts have been the cause, by stripping the ball, punching it out of a players arms, etc. The Bears have had better average field position than the Colts. Another comparison with regards to field position is that in the past two games, the Colts have started 10 drives from their own 20 or less, compared with the Bears 5 drives. The Bears special teams has been regarded this season as one of the best in the league, exemplified by the fact that three out of the five NFC special teams players selected for the Pro Bowl are from the Bears, and Devin Hester’s record setting six returns for touchdowns. I’d also like to mention that the Bears have more players selected for the Pro Bowl than any other team in the NFC (and two more than the Colts).
There's also the fact that the Colts are a dome team. A dome team has never won an outdoor Super Bowl. The 1999 St. Louis Rams are the only team to win a Super Bowl, and it took place in the Georgia Dome. Only two other dome teams, the 1998 Atlanta Falcons and the 2001 Rams, reached the Super Bowl and they both lost. Only two dome teams even made it to the playoffs this year. Dolphins Stadium is outdoors and there's a chance of rain. Dome teams are traditionally unsuccessful in the playoffs, and with the Saints one win and one loss, and the Colts three wins this postseason, the dome teams’ record is now 11-26.
People suggest placekicker Adam Vinatieri's reputation and Super Bowl experience provides the Colts with a sizeable advantage. He will most likely have an impact, but we are forgetting the talent of the Bears kicker Robbie Gould (selected to the Pro Bowl), who was the #1 ranked kicker in the entire NFL this season. He made 32 of 36 field goals, with one blocked kick, and never missed an extra point (47 attempts). Yes, Vinatieri had similar stats, making 25 of 28 and also not missing an extra point (38 attempts), but my point is not that Gould is a better kicker, just that he is comparable. On a side note, since football is regarded as a physical, tough, constant contact sport, placekickers are seen as not as important and don't get enough credit. If you think about it, taking into account the most common ways of scoring in football - touchdowns (6 pts), point after (1 pt), and field goals (3 pts), placekickers are responsible for 4 out of the 10 points most commonly scored. Give them more credit and respect.
The Bears are widely viewed as the underdogs, and a lot of the players have made remarks that the Colts being a 7-point favorite is an insult, and that people and the media have been doubting them all season, picked against them all season, and continue to doubt them despite the glaring fact that they continue to win games. They get it done. They find a way to win in spite of numerous mistakes (like the six turnovers in the Arizona game, and somehow winning 24-23), and when they have games with little mistakes, they don't just win, but are extremely dominant. For the most part that fact has gone unnoticed, being dwarfed by the more controversial story of Rex Grossman's inconsistences. My point is that the Bears feed off of this constant doubt and criticism and use it as a large motivator in their play. The Bears were the favorite in the Seahawks game, and won by only 3 points in overtime. They were the underdog in the Saints game and it was a blowout. Saints were the #1 ranked offense in the NFL and the Bears held them to just two touchdowns, when they had been averaging 25 points per game in the regular season. You may say that being the underdog is no indication that a team has an advantage, but it certainly provides inspiration and drive, and I think that inspiration could give Bears the edge. Of course, possessing the skills to go along with that special determination is a necessity, and the Bears do have that. As an example of this phenomenon of human motivation, look at the Colts defense. For pretty much the entire month of December the media was constantly harping on how pathetic the Colts run defense is, ranked last in the NFL, and then when it was determined they would play the Chiefs, the large majority of reporting on the Colts focused on how Larry Johnson would not be stopped, would run for over 200 yards, and the like. Yes, Bob Sanders returned, but his contribution alone did not change their defense around. Why the change? I think a huge reason is that all that talk in the media aroused anger and indignation and it created a desire to want to prove them wrong. But now, the media can't stop talking about how great they are. That's dangerous, and it can lead to overconfidence with a great example being Super Bowl 36, when the Rams were a 14 point favorite against the Patriots, and the Patriots won. They never relinquished their lead for the entire game. The combination of the Bears being the underdogs and the Colts possible overconfidence will most definitely have an effect.
I can rattle off statistics forever, but my main point of this essay is not that the Bears should be an overwhelming favorite in this Super Bowl, or even that they will most definitely be victorious. It can be argued there are certainly areas of the game that the Colts have the upper hand. Its purpose is to disprove the critics that believe the Colts are the better team. They are not. But just like the vast majority of football games, it’s very up in the air. Upsets happen constantly in football, but even so, I am stating that if the Bears won it would only be an upset in the sense that the Colts are a 7 point favorite and most critics believe them to win. Not because they are an inferior team. The proclaimed favorites in Super Bowl history have won 28 of them. The underdogs have won 12, which is almost 1/3 of victories. We'll see who wants it more.
20-17 Bears.
All statistics mentioned here were taken from nfl.com and superbowl.com.