Weather analysis for 14 Aug 2007 with 00Z maps
For a real forecast, go to www.nws.noaa.gov.
Surface low extends from British Columbia out into the Pacific. Two jet streams are traversing North America-- one is farther north in Canada and curves around the base of a low over Quebec while the other skirts the US-Canadian border before plunging south into the Carolinas. Q-vector maps show convergence at 850mb in northern WY and in WI through Ontario. Q-vector convergence at 500mb is in extreme northeastern MT and northwestern ND, well to the north of WY. Streamlines show a high pressure system anchored over TX, OK, and KS. A strong baroclinic zone stretches from ND through MN, WI, IL, IN, KY, OH, and WV. It also stretches back to the west, but the mountains make it difficult to locate more precisely. An anticyclonically curved jet streak sits atop the ridge that dominates most of the continental US. The Q-vector convergence in WY might be in response to the right entrance region of this jet. An easterly wave with scattered convection and a nicely defined rotation envelope is about to reach the TX coast.
GFS shows some impressive ridging into Canada by 12Z on Thursday. It also brings a tropical cyclone into the domain by 06Z on Sunday, August 19th. That is probably TD 4, but I have no idea why it shows up the way it does in this model.
Surface low extends from British Columbia out into the Pacific. Two jet streams are traversing North America-- one is farther north in Canada and curves around the base of a low over Quebec while the other skirts the US-Canadian border before plunging south into the Carolinas. Q-vector maps show convergence at 850mb in northern WY and in WI through Ontario. Q-vector convergence at 500mb is in extreme northeastern MT and northwestern ND, well to the north of WY. Streamlines show a high pressure system anchored over TX, OK, and KS. A strong baroclinic zone stretches from ND through MN, WI, IL, IN, KY, OH, and WV. It also stretches back to the west, but the mountains make it difficult to locate more precisely. An anticyclonically curved jet streak sits atop the ridge that dominates most of the continental US. The Q-vector convergence in WY might be in response to the right entrance region of this jet. An easterly wave with scattered convection and a nicely defined rotation envelope is about to reach the TX coast.
GFS shows some impressive ridging into Canada by 12Z on Thursday. It also brings a tropical cyclone into the domain by 06Z on Sunday, August 19th. That is probably TD 4, but I have no idea why it shows up the way it does in this model.