2012 Election Analysis
While I'm almost exclusively on Facebook at the moment, FB is not really a good place for a large amount of writing like this. So, I am posting this analysis here on my old LJ like I did in 2008. Enjoy.
Shortly before the election of 2008, I used the polling data and trends from http://www.electoral-vote.com to create a summary of which candidate was winning in each state and to figure out who was most likely to win the election. My prediction that Obama was going to win handily turned out to be accurate.
Now that the 2012 election season is getting warmed up, I have decided to do an analysis of what the political climate looks like in May and what work that the candidates have to do to get (another) four years in the White House. I understand that it is rather early to be performing this kind of analysis, but I figured that this kind of gedankenexperiment would help me to see what was coming up and likely what to expect for the coming election cycle.
Like in 2008, I am going to go through the poll numbers state by state, comparing them with past and current trends, and then synthesize the results at the end. As it is so early in election process, speculation and extrapolation dominates the reasoning here. When more information becomes apparent as polls become more frequent, the predictions shown here will either be confirmed, refuted, or modified as needed.
Going in alphabetical order, the first state is. . .
Alabama:
This Deep South state has, like many of its neighbors, a penchant for voting Republican. Not even Clinton was able to break the strong conservative hold on this state like he was able to do with some of the Southern states. This one will go to Romney without a doubt.
Winner: Romney, 9 electoral votes
Alaska:
In 2008, McCain got a big boost in the Alaskan polls from putting Sarah Palin on his ticket, but he really didn’t need her to take the state. Alaska is conservative by nature and hasn’t voted for a Democrat for President since 1964. Romney will take this state easily.
Winner: Romney, 3 electoral votes
Arizona:
Last election had the Republican candidate being one of their own. This time, things are different. Arizona’s eleven electoral votes could be up for grabs. Romney’s trend over Obama is not large and some polls show a dead heat. This state shows a lot of disparity and disagreement between its varying populations and the result at this point is too early to tell.
Winner: Toss-up, 11 electoral votes
Arkansas:
Apart from them voting for their native son in 1992 and 1996, Arkansas is thoroughly a red state. Obama doesn’t have a chance here in 2012.
Winner: Romney, 6 electoral votes
California:
The entire Pacific Coast voting block is dominated by Democratic politics, centering on the metropolitan areas of Los Angeles/San Diego, San Francisco/Oakland/San Jose, Portland, and Seattle. Outside of these regions, much of the Pacific Coast area is quite conservative, but their populations can never compete with the liberal voting blocks statewide. Consequently, California is a liberal bastion and Democratic electoral treasure chest. The state has voted for a Democrat on every presidential election since 1992, and I don’t see this election being any different given the voting trends.
Winner: Obama, 55 electoral votes
Colorado:
Colorado was a battleground state last election and should continue to be one this time around. In 2008, Obama only began to emerge as a front runner in October. It can’t be predicted what will be happening as the campaign heats up.
Winner: Toss-up, 9 electoral votes
Connecticut
The whole of the New England voting block votes almost without exception for the Democrat time after time. Connecticut follows the template like its neighbors.
Winner: Obama, 7 electoral votes
District of Columbia:
Republicans cannot even get 10% of the vote here.
Winner: Obama, 3 electoral votes
Delaware:
Delaware is Biden’s home state, but it doesn’t need that to push the Democrats over the edge here. Delaware is a strongly Democratic state and has been for a long time.
Winner: Obama, 3 electoral votes
Florida:
Florida is a state of great dichotomy. It is blue in the south and red in the north. This results in a very contentious purple state fought over bitterly by both parties. Obama won this state by 2% of the vote in 2008. Perhaps it is too early to tell, and I could be very wrong, but considering Obama’s drop in the polls in general since 2008 and the current razor-thin separation between the candidates right now, I am going to do something crazy and predict a Romney win here. Should the polls change significantly towards the blue end, I will eat crow and change my judgment. In the meantime, these electoral votes will be some of the most contested in the nation.
Winner: Romney, 29 electoral votes
Georgia:
McCain’s win here was narrow in 2008, but this state is nonetheless pretty strongly Republican. Not even Clinton was able to win here on his second term. I see this year continuing the Republican trend, even if by a narrow margin.
Winner: Romney, 16 electoral votes
Hawaii:
Not only is the Aloha State Obama’s birthplace, but it is very Democratic-leaning. This one is a non-issue.
Winner: Obama, 4 electoral votes
Idaho:
The last Democrat to win Idaho was Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. It remains a deeply conservative and Republican state today.
Winner: Romney, 4 electoral votes
Illinois:
Obama’s current home state-‘nuff said.
Winner: Obama, 20 electoral votes
Indiana:
Obama won this state surprisingly in 2008. It is usually quite red, and I don’t see it bucking its usual trend this election.
Winner: Romney, 11 electoral votes
Iowa:
Bush won this purplish-blue state in 2004, but Obama won it handily in 2008. While Obama’s star power has faded in the intervening time, I don’t think, given the polls that I’m seeing, that it will change the overall results here. Barring a big upset in Iowa, I see a narrow victory for Obama.
Winner: Obama, 6 electoral votes
Kansas:
Down the Heartland of the country, from North Dakota in the north to Texas in the south, is an area that I call the “Central Strip”. This region has been voting for Republicans for President during every election as a block since 1980. If you excluded Texas, then the run of Republican voting would extend back to 1968. Kansas is a typical member of the “Strip” and will certainly be voting Republican in 2012.
Winner: Romney, 6 electoral votes
Kentucky:
Although Clinton won this state on both of the times he ran, Kentucky has since been very Republican in its voting. This time will be no exception.
Winner: Romney, 8 electoral votes
Louisiana:
These folks were big Clinton fans back in the ‘90s, but since then, Louisiana has been all red. Still stinging from the Gulf disaster, I do not think that there is any chance that this state is going to be voting Democratic in November.
Winner: Romney, 9 electoral votes
Maine:
This New England state is true to form like its neighbors and will continue to vote Democratic time after time.
Winner: Obama, 4 electoral votes
Maryland:
Maryland is an overwhelmingly Democratic state. Obama will certainly win here, no question.
Winner: Obama, 10 electoral votes
Massachusetts:
Just because Romney was the governor of Massachusetts doesn’t mean that they will vote for him for President. It’s usually an embarrassment when a candidate doesn’t win his state of residence, but in this case, it is a foregone conclusion. I don’t see any chance that the state of the Kennedys will be voting for anybody other than Obama.
Winner: Obama, 11 electoral votes
Michigan:
This one MAY be an upset. Michigan has voted for the Democrat for the last five elections, but their leads have often been thin. Obama only came out the definitive winner in the polls here during late September of 2008. This time, with a still-lagging economy (despite Obama’s vocal optimism), it could turn voters away from the Democrat for the first time since Michael Dukakis. This is also the state where Romney was born, so this plays into the situation as well. Obama may still take it, but I will wait for the polls to confirm this. The election here will be interesting to watch.
Winner: Toss-up, 17 electoral votes
Minnesota:
Some elections in this state have been close, and some have not. What is sure is that the Democratic candidate will continue to win Minnesota time after time.
Winner: Obama, 10 electoral votes
Mississippi:
This Gulf state has a long history of voting Republican. Current trends show no foreseeable change.
Winner: Romney, 6 electoral votes
Missouri:
Missouri went for Clinton in 1992 and 1996, but since then has gone for the Republican, even if by a very narrow margin. McCain won this state by 1% last election, and with Obama’s popularity having fallen as much as it has, I don’t see him doing better in this purplish-red state. I think Romney has this one.
Winner: Romney, 10 electoral votes
Montana:
Montana is a solid conservative voting area, as is many of the states adjoining it. Current polls show Romney’s lead not as high in comparison to that of its neighbors, but a Democrat won’t be winning in this state any time soon.
Winner: Romney, 3 electoral votes
Nebraska:
Nebraska is one of the “Central Strip” states, and current polls show that it will hold true to its decades-old Republican trend.
Winner: Romney, 5 electoral votes
Nevada:
Nevada is a very purple state, going back and forth between Democrat and Republican for the last five elections. Obama won here in 2008, and current polls are leaning that way as well, but it’s a long way to November. Given the centrist nature of this state, it is too early to tell.
Winner: Toss-up, 6 electoral votes
New Hampshire:
New Hampshire is the most purple state of the New England voting block. However, just because Bush won a hair’s breadth victory here in 2004 doesn’t mean Romney is going to have an easy time winning here. This was a battleground state in 2008 and Obama only emerged as a clear winner in the polls in late September. Opening polls this cycle are showing much the same picture beginning to emerge. Obama may still squeak out a victory on this one, but I might be surprised. I can’t tell yet for sure.
Winner: Toss-up, 4 electoral votes
New Jersey:
New Jersey, like many of the states around it, are Democratic strongholds. Obama will win here.
Winner: Obama, 14 electoral votes
New Mexico:
New Mexico tends toward being a blue state, although Bush eked out a very narrow victory in 2004. I think that, judging from the current polls, New Mexico will continue with its Democratic trend.
Winner: Obama, 5 electoral votes
New York:
New York is the Democratic prize of the east (California is the western prize). The last time a Republican won this state was in 1984 (Reagan). Obama easily won New York in 2008 and will easily win it again in 2012.
Winner: Obama, 29 electoral votes
North Carolina:
Obama pulled an upset here in 2008. After lagging behind in the polls until September, North Carolina turned into a battleground state that he eventually won. I find it doubtful that he will be able to do this again, although polls now show the candidates neck and neck. This one will be interesting.
Winner: Toss-up, 15 electoral votes
North Dakota:
North Dakota is the northern-most member of the “Central Strip”, and therefore can be counted upon to vote Republican election after election. This election does not appear to be any different, although Obama often did quite well in last-year’s polls comparatively.
Winner: Romney, 3 electoral votes
Ohio:
The archetype of the “purple state”, you can never really tell who is going to win here. In 2004, this state actually decided the election. While I cannot say whether or not it will have this distinction in the 2012 race, it still remains hotly contested.
Winner: Toss-up, 18 electoral votes
Oklahoma:
The “Sooner State” is very conservative and a typical member of the “Central Strip”. Romney will easily win this state.
Winner: Romney, 7 electoral votes
Oregon:
Oregon is part of the Pacific Coast voting block, and actually hasn’t voted for a Republican for president since 1980. This trend won’t be changing for this election.
Winner: Obama, 7 electoral votes
Pennsylvania:
Pennsylvania has been a Democratic state in terms of presidential elections for many years, even if the spread has not been as wide as some of the other Democratic states around it. The polls this year look like that they are going to turn out just as they have in the last two elections: A general trend towards the Democrat with a few polls showing a crossover, then a definitive spreading out of the numbers in September or October pointing to a winner. The winner will be Obama.
Winner: Obama, 20 electoral votes
Rhode Island:
The country’s smallest state is big on Democratic candidates, just like the rest of its New England neighbors.
Winner, Obama, 4 electoral votes
South Carolina:
Unlike its neighbor to the north, there is no question here. South Carolina is firmly in the Republican camp.
Winner: Romney, 9 electoral votes
South Dakota:
As a member of the “Central Strip”, South Dakota should be voting Republican as it has for many elections in the past. Current polls show no deviation from this trend.
Winner: Romney, 3 electoral votes
Tennessee:
Tennessee is another one of those states that voted for Clinton in the ‘90s and since has become very deeply red. They will certainly vote for Romney this time around.
Winner: Romney, 11 electoral votes
Texas:
This southern-most member of the “Central Strip” has been voting Republican solidly since 1980. They should continue to be voting in this direction for years to come. This state is the biggest electoral prize for Republicans existent in the Union, and with four more votes than last year, that much more valued.
Winner: Romney, 38 electoral votes
Utah:
With Utah’s deep conservative roots, as well as the Republican Party’s candidate being a Mormon this time around, the winner of this state is obvious.
Winner: Romney, 6 electoral votes
Vermont:
With its deep-left leanings and Socialist senator, Vermont is absolutely a Democratic win.
Winner: Obama, 3 electoral votes
Virginia:
Virginia is traditionally Republican, but with more and more liberals spilling out into the D.C. surrounding area, it has become quite purple in recent years. Obama won Virginia in 2008 after much seesawing back and forth in the polls. Polls are again seesawing this year and Obama is getting more winning numbers than Romney, but with Obama’s falling numbers, nothing can really be predicted here. This one is too early to tell.
Winner: Toss-up, 13 electoral-votes
Washington:
Washington state is another member of the Liberal-dominated voting block. They have long voted for Democrats and this time around won’t be any different.
Winner: Obama, 12 electoral votes
West Virginia:
There are some very conservative folks up in these hills. They may have voted for Clinton in ’92 and ’96, but you won’t see that trend this election year. Count this as five electoral votes for Romney.
Winner: Romney, 5 electoral votes
Wisconsin:
This state has voted Democratic for President since 1988. It is a liberal stronghold.
Winner: Obama, 10 electoral votes
Wyoming:
Wyoming is one of the most deeply conservative states in the Union at this time. It will vote accordingly.
Winner: Romney, 3 electoral votes
Breakdown:
States/Districts that will certainly or likely vote for Obama:
California, Connecticut, D.C., Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin.
States that will certainly or likely vote for Romney:
Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming.
States for whom it is too early to tell or will probably go down to the wire:
Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia,
Electoral vote count synthesis:
Obama: 237
Romney: 210
In Play: 93
The only obvious point to make right now is that this is not going to be an easy victory for either candidate, although Romney’s fight is more uphill.
At the present time, it is too early to determine any “make or break” states that any one candidate needs to get in order to win. Too many states and electoral votes are in play for this currently. The best I can do is run off of hunches on how things might turn out. Using the best judgment that I have concerning the toss-up states, I would guess the following:
Obama is more likely to get Michigan and New Hampshire
Romney is more likely to get Arizona, North Carolina, and Virginia
This leaves the following states still in play:
Colorado, Nevada, Ohio
This would change the electoral vote count to:
Obama: 257
Romney: 249
In play: 33
This leaves Obama 13 points away from the Magic Number of 270 and Romney 21 points. This also puts the state of Ohio in partial kingmaker position again. If Obama gets Ohio, it’s all over. Romney will need to get Ohio and one of the other states to win. If Romney, however, picks Ohio senator Rob Portman as his V.P. running mate, this would almost certainly neutralize most of Obama’s advantage here.
Remember, though, that this is speculation on top of speculation again, and that November is nearly six months away. In July, I will be taking another look to see how accurate I was with my May appraisals.
Shortly before the election of 2008, I used the polling data and trends from http://www.electoral-vote.com to create a summary of which candidate was winning in each state and to figure out who was most likely to win the election. My prediction that Obama was going to win handily turned out to be accurate.
Now that the 2012 election season is getting warmed up, I have decided to do an analysis of what the political climate looks like in May and what work that the candidates have to do to get (another) four years in the White House. I understand that it is rather early to be performing this kind of analysis, but I figured that this kind of gedankenexperiment would help me to see what was coming up and likely what to expect for the coming election cycle.
Like in 2008, I am going to go through the poll numbers state by state, comparing them with past and current trends, and then synthesize the results at the end. As it is so early in election process, speculation and extrapolation dominates the reasoning here. When more information becomes apparent as polls become more frequent, the predictions shown here will either be confirmed, refuted, or modified as needed.
Going in alphabetical order, the first state is. . .
Alabama:
This Deep South state has, like many of its neighbors, a penchant for voting Republican. Not even Clinton was able to break the strong conservative hold on this state like he was able to do with some of the Southern states. This one will go to Romney without a doubt.
Winner: Romney, 9 electoral votes
Alaska:
In 2008, McCain got a big boost in the Alaskan polls from putting Sarah Palin on his ticket, but he really didn’t need her to take the state. Alaska is conservative by nature and hasn’t voted for a Democrat for President since 1964. Romney will take this state easily.
Winner: Romney, 3 electoral votes
Arizona:
Last election had the Republican candidate being one of their own. This time, things are different. Arizona’s eleven electoral votes could be up for grabs. Romney’s trend over Obama is not large and some polls show a dead heat. This state shows a lot of disparity and disagreement between its varying populations and the result at this point is too early to tell.
Winner: Toss-up, 11 electoral votes
Arkansas:
Apart from them voting for their native son in 1992 and 1996, Arkansas is thoroughly a red state. Obama doesn’t have a chance here in 2012.
Winner: Romney, 6 electoral votes
California:
The entire Pacific Coast voting block is dominated by Democratic politics, centering on the metropolitan areas of Los Angeles/San Diego, San Francisco/Oakland/San Jose, Portland, and Seattle. Outside of these regions, much of the Pacific Coast area is quite conservative, but their populations can never compete with the liberal voting blocks statewide. Consequently, California is a liberal bastion and Democratic electoral treasure chest. The state has voted for a Democrat on every presidential election since 1992, and I don’t see this election being any different given the voting trends.
Winner: Obama, 55 electoral votes
Colorado:
Colorado was a battleground state last election and should continue to be one this time around. In 2008, Obama only began to emerge as a front runner in October. It can’t be predicted what will be happening as the campaign heats up.
Winner: Toss-up, 9 electoral votes
Connecticut
The whole of the New England voting block votes almost without exception for the Democrat time after time. Connecticut follows the template like its neighbors.
Winner: Obama, 7 electoral votes
District of Columbia:
Republicans cannot even get 10% of the vote here.
Winner: Obama, 3 electoral votes
Delaware:
Delaware is Biden’s home state, but it doesn’t need that to push the Democrats over the edge here. Delaware is a strongly Democratic state and has been for a long time.
Winner: Obama, 3 electoral votes
Florida:
Florida is a state of great dichotomy. It is blue in the south and red in the north. This results in a very contentious purple state fought over bitterly by both parties. Obama won this state by 2% of the vote in 2008. Perhaps it is too early to tell, and I could be very wrong, but considering Obama’s drop in the polls in general since 2008 and the current razor-thin separation between the candidates right now, I am going to do something crazy and predict a Romney win here. Should the polls change significantly towards the blue end, I will eat crow and change my judgment. In the meantime, these electoral votes will be some of the most contested in the nation.
Winner: Romney, 29 electoral votes
Georgia:
McCain’s win here was narrow in 2008, but this state is nonetheless pretty strongly Republican. Not even Clinton was able to win here on his second term. I see this year continuing the Republican trend, even if by a narrow margin.
Winner: Romney, 16 electoral votes
Hawaii:
Not only is the Aloha State Obama’s birthplace, but it is very Democratic-leaning. This one is a non-issue.
Winner: Obama, 4 electoral votes
Idaho:
The last Democrat to win Idaho was Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. It remains a deeply conservative and Republican state today.
Winner: Romney, 4 electoral votes
Illinois:
Obama’s current home state-‘nuff said.
Winner: Obama, 20 electoral votes
Indiana:
Obama won this state surprisingly in 2008. It is usually quite red, and I don’t see it bucking its usual trend this election.
Winner: Romney, 11 electoral votes
Iowa:
Bush won this purplish-blue state in 2004, but Obama won it handily in 2008. While Obama’s star power has faded in the intervening time, I don’t think, given the polls that I’m seeing, that it will change the overall results here. Barring a big upset in Iowa, I see a narrow victory for Obama.
Winner: Obama, 6 electoral votes
Kansas:
Down the Heartland of the country, from North Dakota in the north to Texas in the south, is an area that I call the “Central Strip”. This region has been voting for Republicans for President during every election as a block since 1980. If you excluded Texas, then the run of Republican voting would extend back to 1968. Kansas is a typical member of the “Strip” and will certainly be voting Republican in 2012.
Winner: Romney, 6 electoral votes
Kentucky:
Although Clinton won this state on both of the times he ran, Kentucky has since been very Republican in its voting. This time will be no exception.
Winner: Romney, 8 electoral votes
Louisiana:
These folks were big Clinton fans back in the ‘90s, but since then, Louisiana has been all red. Still stinging from the Gulf disaster, I do not think that there is any chance that this state is going to be voting Democratic in November.
Winner: Romney, 9 electoral votes
Maine:
This New England state is true to form like its neighbors and will continue to vote Democratic time after time.
Winner: Obama, 4 electoral votes
Maryland:
Maryland is an overwhelmingly Democratic state. Obama will certainly win here, no question.
Winner: Obama, 10 electoral votes
Massachusetts:
Just because Romney was the governor of Massachusetts doesn’t mean that they will vote for him for President. It’s usually an embarrassment when a candidate doesn’t win his state of residence, but in this case, it is a foregone conclusion. I don’t see any chance that the state of the Kennedys will be voting for anybody other than Obama.
Winner: Obama, 11 electoral votes
Michigan:
This one MAY be an upset. Michigan has voted for the Democrat for the last five elections, but their leads have often been thin. Obama only came out the definitive winner in the polls here during late September of 2008. This time, with a still-lagging economy (despite Obama’s vocal optimism), it could turn voters away from the Democrat for the first time since Michael Dukakis. This is also the state where Romney was born, so this plays into the situation as well. Obama may still take it, but I will wait for the polls to confirm this. The election here will be interesting to watch.
Winner: Toss-up, 17 electoral votes
Minnesota:
Some elections in this state have been close, and some have not. What is sure is that the Democratic candidate will continue to win Minnesota time after time.
Winner: Obama, 10 electoral votes
Mississippi:
This Gulf state has a long history of voting Republican. Current trends show no foreseeable change.
Winner: Romney, 6 electoral votes
Missouri:
Missouri went for Clinton in 1992 and 1996, but since then has gone for the Republican, even if by a very narrow margin. McCain won this state by 1% last election, and with Obama’s popularity having fallen as much as it has, I don’t see him doing better in this purplish-red state. I think Romney has this one.
Winner: Romney, 10 electoral votes
Montana:
Montana is a solid conservative voting area, as is many of the states adjoining it. Current polls show Romney’s lead not as high in comparison to that of its neighbors, but a Democrat won’t be winning in this state any time soon.
Winner: Romney, 3 electoral votes
Nebraska:
Nebraska is one of the “Central Strip” states, and current polls show that it will hold true to its decades-old Republican trend.
Winner: Romney, 5 electoral votes
Nevada:
Nevada is a very purple state, going back and forth between Democrat and Republican for the last five elections. Obama won here in 2008, and current polls are leaning that way as well, but it’s a long way to November. Given the centrist nature of this state, it is too early to tell.
Winner: Toss-up, 6 electoral votes
New Hampshire:
New Hampshire is the most purple state of the New England voting block. However, just because Bush won a hair’s breadth victory here in 2004 doesn’t mean Romney is going to have an easy time winning here. This was a battleground state in 2008 and Obama only emerged as a clear winner in the polls in late September. Opening polls this cycle are showing much the same picture beginning to emerge. Obama may still squeak out a victory on this one, but I might be surprised. I can’t tell yet for sure.
Winner: Toss-up, 4 electoral votes
New Jersey:
New Jersey, like many of the states around it, are Democratic strongholds. Obama will win here.
Winner: Obama, 14 electoral votes
New Mexico:
New Mexico tends toward being a blue state, although Bush eked out a very narrow victory in 2004. I think that, judging from the current polls, New Mexico will continue with its Democratic trend.
Winner: Obama, 5 electoral votes
New York:
New York is the Democratic prize of the east (California is the western prize). The last time a Republican won this state was in 1984 (Reagan). Obama easily won New York in 2008 and will easily win it again in 2012.
Winner: Obama, 29 electoral votes
North Carolina:
Obama pulled an upset here in 2008. After lagging behind in the polls until September, North Carolina turned into a battleground state that he eventually won. I find it doubtful that he will be able to do this again, although polls now show the candidates neck and neck. This one will be interesting.
Winner: Toss-up, 15 electoral votes
North Dakota:
North Dakota is the northern-most member of the “Central Strip”, and therefore can be counted upon to vote Republican election after election. This election does not appear to be any different, although Obama often did quite well in last-year’s polls comparatively.
Winner: Romney, 3 electoral votes
Ohio:
The archetype of the “purple state”, you can never really tell who is going to win here. In 2004, this state actually decided the election. While I cannot say whether or not it will have this distinction in the 2012 race, it still remains hotly contested.
Winner: Toss-up, 18 electoral votes
Oklahoma:
The “Sooner State” is very conservative and a typical member of the “Central Strip”. Romney will easily win this state.
Winner: Romney, 7 electoral votes
Oregon:
Oregon is part of the Pacific Coast voting block, and actually hasn’t voted for a Republican for president since 1980. This trend won’t be changing for this election.
Winner: Obama, 7 electoral votes
Pennsylvania:
Pennsylvania has been a Democratic state in terms of presidential elections for many years, even if the spread has not been as wide as some of the other Democratic states around it. The polls this year look like that they are going to turn out just as they have in the last two elections: A general trend towards the Democrat with a few polls showing a crossover, then a definitive spreading out of the numbers in September or October pointing to a winner. The winner will be Obama.
Winner: Obama, 20 electoral votes
Rhode Island:
The country’s smallest state is big on Democratic candidates, just like the rest of its New England neighbors.
Winner, Obama, 4 electoral votes
South Carolina:
Unlike its neighbor to the north, there is no question here. South Carolina is firmly in the Republican camp.
Winner: Romney, 9 electoral votes
South Dakota:
As a member of the “Central Strip”, South Dakota should be voting Republican as it has for many elections in the past. Current polls show no deviation from this trend.
Winner: Romney, 3 electoral votes
Tennessee:
Tennessee is another one of those states that voted for Clinton in the ‘90s and since has become very deeply red. They will certainly vote for Romney this time around.
Winner: Romney, 11 electoral votes
Texas:
This southern-most member of the “Central Strip” has been voting Republican solidly since 1980. They should continue to be voting in this direction for years to come. This state is the biggest electoral prize for Republicans existent in the Union, and with four more votes than last year, that much more valued.
Winner: Romney, 38 electoral votes
Utah:
With Utah’s deep conservative roots, as well as the Republican Party’s candidate being a Mormon this time around, the winner of this state is obvious.
Winner: Romney, 6 electoral votes
Vermont:
With its deep-left leanings and Socialist senator, Vermont is absolutely a Democratic win.
Winner: Obama, 3 electoral votes
Virginia:
Virginia is traditionally Republican, but with more and more liberals spilling out into the D.C. surrounding area, it has become quite purple in recent years. Obama won Virginia in 2008 after much seesawing back and forth in the polls. Polls are again seesawing this year and Obama is getting more winning numbers than Romney, but with Obama’s falling numbers, nothing can really be predicted here. This one is too early to tell.
Winner: Toss-up, 13 electoral-votes
Washington:
Washington state is another member of the Liberal-dominated voting block. They have long voted for Democrats and this time around won’t be any different.
Winner: Obama, 12 electoral votes
West Virginia:
There are some very conservative folks up in these hills. They may have voted for Clinton in ’92 and ’96, but you won’t see that trend this election year. Count this as five electoral votes for Romney.
Winner: Romney, 5 electoral votes
Wisconsin:
This state has voted Democratic for President since 1988. It is a liberal stronghold.
Winner: Obama, 10 electoral votes
Wyoming:
Wyoming is one of the most deeply conservative states in the Union at this time. It will vote accordingly.
Winner: Romney, 3 electoral votes
Breakdown:
States/Districts that will certainly or likely vote for Obama:
California, Connecticut, D.C., Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin.
States that will certainly or likely vote for Romney:
Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming.
States for whom it is too early to tell or will probably go down to the wire:
Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia,
Electoral vote count synthesis:
Obama: 237
Romney: 210
In Play: 93
The only obvious point to make right now is that this is not going to be an easy victory for either candidate, although Romney’s fight is more uphill.
At the present time, it is too early to determine any “make or break” states that any one candidate needs to get in order to win. Too many states and electoral votes are in play for this currently. The best I can do is run off of hunches on how things might turn out. Using the best judgment that I have concerning the toss-up states, I would guess the following:
Obama is more likely to get Michigan and New Hampshire
Romney is more likely to get Arizona, North Carolina, and Virginia
This leaves the following states still in play:
Colorado, Nevada, Ohio
This would change the electoral vote count to:
Obama: 257
Romney: 249
In play: 33
This leaves Obama 13 points away from the Magic Number of 270 and Romney 21 points. This also puts the state of Ohio in partial kingmaker position again. If Obama gets Ohio, it’s all over. Romney will need to get Ohio and one of the other states to win. If Romney, however, picks Ohio senator Rob Portman as his V.P. running mate, this would almost certainly neutralize most of Obama’s advantage here.
Remember, though, that this is speculation on top of speculation again, and that November is nearly six months away. In July, I will be taking another look to see how accurate I was with my May appraisals.