Машины-роботы

[profpr]

На мой семинар приезжал человек из отдела моделирования автомобильных потоков штата. Одна из тем его исследований - перераспределение транспортных потоков с появлением автомобилей - роботов. Я как-то об этом не думал, но с появлением реально автономных автомобилей их число на дорогах существенно увеличится - за счет того, что люди старшего возраста

Comments

[gornal]

Что изменится для людей старшего возраста по сравнению с такси сейчас?

[talgaton]

цена.
в разы меньше.
в америках стоимость капитала - сходит в ноль.
стоимость человеческого труда - в стратосферу.
плтишь за гамбургер - большая часть уходит на "минимальную зарплату" и на налоги.
тоже самое - такси.

[pol_shaga]

Почему операторы до сих пор в авиационных службах?

[profpr]

Полагаю, им все меньше работы. Когда не только в обычных ситуациях человек станет менее надежным, но и в нестандартных, в аэропорту людям останется только подметать полы и продавать кофе в старбаксе.

[misha_b]

There is another reason there will be more cars on the road. Self-driving (even partially self-driving cars that we already have) are much more pleasant to be in while driving since they don't require constant control of the steering wheel/brake pedal. You can relax, listen to music and audiobooks, in the future work or watch videos. That will make spending time in traffic more tolerable.

[profpr]

В результате, будут массово отмирать придорожные отели.

[misha_b]

But restaurants will prosper.

[jnuk]

I am not sure about the States, but in the UK the number of cars has been getting down over the last twenty or so years. The has been an increase in the number of light delivery vans since about five years ago. The milage is getting down as well. Basically people are driving less. The cars are getting older as well. People are not buying new cars as often as before.
There are several factors. Increasing fuel prise is one of the. In general car ownership is getting more expensive.
Secondly people are trying to comute less and less or at least use the public transport if possible. In the UK it is awfully expensive but parking is even more so.
Then there is a factor of size. Yes, to be a passenger is less tiresome, but to a greater degree this advantage is offset by a short wheel base. The smaller the car the bampier the ride
Basically I do not think that autodriving is going to change the situation that much.

[profpr]

In the US the trends are different. Overall the number of cars is growing; given population growth, car ownership is stabilized at somewhere around 0.75 per person or 2.0 per household. Recent trend is towards higher ownership and larger size. The reverse trend is observed in younger population living in cities: car sharing and Uber are lesser hassle.

I don't think that public transportation will click in the foreseeable future. The most important, typical local population density is much lesser, making the public transportation routes heavily subsidized and slow. Say, it's 15 min for me to get to work driving but 1:15 by bus (which I never did). Once again, large cities are exemptions.

[russian_o]

В то же время, скорее всего, и пассажиров в машине в среднем станет больше, если такси будут работать по принципу pool, как Убер сейчас. Это явно будет дешевле, чем отдельное авто.