Comments | rodney_g_graves: Of Threats and their Neturalization

rodney_g_graves

Of Threats and their Neturalization

Jul 07, 2008 20:21

Being a response to Chris Gherrib's How Wars Are Won - Iran

Introduction

Beginning with the Revolution of 1978 and continuing to this day, Iran has engaged in a series of war like acts, provocations, and war by proxy against the United States and the allies of the United States.

Iranian Revolution and an Act of War against the United States ( Read more... )

war on terror, iran

Comments 3

chris_gerrib July 8 2008, 13:28:12 UTC

I'd quibble about the Al Queda link, but generally your history is correct.

Where I disagree is in the presription. Attacking the Iranian homeland is the quickest way to get everybody to rally around an otherwise unpopular government. This is especially the case if we're not prepared to follow up with sizeable ground forces, which we're not because we don't have any to spare at the moment.

Air campaigns alone have very low success rates in causing governmental collapse. See WWII, Vietnam (Operation Linebacker I and II) and for that matter Kosovo. (The Serbs pulled out, but the government survived.)

Don't get me wrong - we may yet have to destroy Iran. I just don't think we're there yet.

Causation rodney_g_graves July 8 2008, 14:00:02 UTC

Chris,

There has to be a price, and a steep one, associated with waging a proxy war against the United States. It would be best if that price became due immediately, but it must be inevitable.

Furthermore, the OpPlan I proposed, while considerably more involved than an air campaign alone, would not so much destroy Iran, as defang them for a generation. While it could buttress the position of the Mullah's, it could also be the last straw between the people and the counter revolution.

Would you care to reconsider rodney_g_graves July 31 2008, 14:34:05 UTC

In light of current news:

Al-Qaeda in Iraq Leader May Be in Afghanistan
By Amit R. Paley
Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, July 31, 2008; Page A01BAGHDAD, July 30 -- The leader of the Sunni insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq and several of his top lieutenants have recently left Iraq for Afghanistan, according to group leaders and Iraqi intelligence officials, a possible further sign of what Iraqi and U.S. officials call growing disarray and weakness in the organization ( ... )