With October comes Major League Baseball's month-long payoff to the regular season, otherwise known as the Playoffs, culminating with the World Series. Let's dive right in!
National League
New York Mets [NL East Champions] vs. Los Angeles Dodgers [NL Wild Card]
The Mets have had a very satisfying regular season, the best in twenty years. But they also suffered injuries, most significantly losing SP Pedro Martinez and setup RP Duaner Sanchez. The Dodgers come in with pitching ailments of their own, as SP Brad Penny likely wouldn't pitch unless there is a Game Four in this series. 1B Nomar Garciaparra is also banged up, which may limit his playing time. The Dodgers also have been without CL Eric Gagne for most of the season, and he won't be available to finish games in the Playoffs, either.
Key to the series: For the Mets it's clearly the starting pitching, and whether it holds strong or buckles under the pressure. In general, this is a team with little Playoff experience between its players. But the pitching is one area that has some Playoff experience, although not necessarily a lot of Playoff success. So the Mets will need to find out whether they can withstand Playoff pressure.
For the Dodgers, they need to produce runs for their pitchers. If they can hit the Mets pitching, then it will take a lot of pressure off the starters. The longer the games remain low scoring and tight, the more the advantage sways in favor of the Mets.
Prediction: NY Mets win series, 3-1.
San Diego Padres [NL West Champions] vs. St. Louis Cardinals [NL Central Champions]
This will be the more competitive series in the NL. It wouldn't be if the Cardinals were the Cardinals of the past few years, but they clearly aren't that team. Injuries and age have withered the power and dominance of the Cardinals, leaving a void at the top of the NL, which the Mets have seemingly filled. We'll find out about that this month, but the Cards have bigger problems. Mainly the fact that they nearly blew their division lead, finally securing it on the final day of the season. That near meltdown has exposed the flaws St. Louis possesses.
San Diego isn't going to be a cakewalk to beat this time around, either. They're playing well enough, having won the NL West over Los Angeles, and for a couple veterans this will probably be the final time around the block, their final chance. Players like C Mike Piazza, who has provided an adequate slugger for the Padre lineup; and SP David Wells, who I'd be surprised to see pitching again next season. Additionally, the Padres wouldn't mind some payback for the past couple years of disgraceful Playoff performances. Beating the Cardinals and advancing to the NLCS would be something they haven't done since 1999.
Key to the series: The Cardinals have got to start playing serious baseball. It's as simple as that. They've looked horrible in every aspect. SP Chris Carpenter has been the bright spot, with another great season, and 1B Albert Pujols had another season to solidify his spot as, in my opinion, the best player in all of baseball. But two players won't win a Playoff series. This is a team who, in the past, could roll over the Padres. But will they be able to recapture that aura with only a couple days' worth of rest?
The Padres are probably their own worst enemy in this series. The Cardinals are vulnerable, ready to be officially dethroned as the most dominant force of the National League over the past few years. But if the Padres want to accomplish that, they can't think about how bad they were the past couple years. Veteran leaders like Mike Piazza and CL Trevor Hoffman, the soul of that team, need to be on board with Manager Bruce Bochy, keeping this team pointing in the right direction.
Prediction: San Diego Padres win series, 3-2.
American League
New York Yankees [AL East Champions] vs. Detroit Tigers [AL Wild Card]
Despite all the criticism, all the concern, all the injuries, and all the drama surrounding the 2006 New York Yankees... in the end, it's just another 97 win season; another AL East pennant; the best record in the American League; and another year the Bronx Bombers are favored to go to, and win, the World Series. And nobody really thought it would be much different. People thought, perhaps, Boston would make things interesting, possibly forcing the Yankees into the Wild Card. In the early summer, with the injuries, there were doubters that the Yankees would make it to the Playoffs. But this team is really something special. As a Mets fan, it isn't plesant for me to see it happen, the Yankees facing little to no resistance to getting into the Playoffs, when all is said and done. But as a baseball fan, I can't help but be impressed by this team. The management of the Yankees, from owner George Steinbrenner to GM Brian Cashman to Manager Joe Torre, and everywhere in between, is stellar. They never fail to put a team out that can compete. They scout prospects and call up players who produce, consistently, and contribute in one way or another. They are hated by many, and respected by all. When George Steinbrenner is no longer around, it will be a very sad day in the history of the Yankees, because he has the passion to make all of this happen. He is the one who brought in everyone that molded and managed this team to what it is. And while I don't like George Steinbrenner, I can't help but respect his passion for baseball.
So the Yankees are in the Playoffs again, and of course the bar is set no lower than a World Series Championship. Theirs should be the closest to a breeze as any of the four divisional series this year. If St. Louis has had a meltdown in September, Detroit has been a complete and utter disaster zone. They didn't just not show up in September, they haven't done anything significant since sometime in August! They did blow their huge division lead. They did settle for the Wild Card, because Minnesota kicked them off the AL Central throne the Tigers had been sitting on for the entire season. And because they're the Wild Card, Detroit must now come into New York, and face the media blitz that will be running headlines about how bad Detroit is, and how easy the Yankees will have it during the first round. Detroit Manager Jim Leyland cannot afford to let his team lose their morale before the games even start, but who knows if they still have any morale to speak of? Who knows if he can channel the negative press into something positive on the field?
Key to the series: Will the Tigers show up? This is a young team, with practically zero Playoff experience, that hasn't played good baseball in about 45 days. Jim Leyland is a great Manager, so if anyone can motivate them it's him. But if the Yankees don't buy into the hype, and just play the way they've been playing, the Tigers won't have a chance. And that Joe Torre guy? I hear he's a pretty good Manager, himself. See: three consecutive World Series rings. See: four total World Series rings [1996, 1998-2000]. See: eleven AL East pennants. See: former Manager of the Year.
The only area the Yankees really need be concerned about is their pitching. Specifically, the health of their pitchers. Randy Johnson is questionable, although his back is said to be feeling good. Mike Mussina hasn't quite had his usual dominant season, and had to leave his last start prematurely. CL Mariano Rivera has had limited appearances in the past two weeks, due to being banged up. And who can really say for sure how Jaret Wright will pitch in the Playoffs? So yeah, the Yankees have some questions. But their lineup is so insanely loaded with run producers, and patient batters, that they may be able to outscore the Tigers, even if the pitching isn't great.
Prediction: NY Yankees win series, 3-0.
Oakland Athletics [AL West Champions] vs. Minnesota Twins [AL Central Champions]
Key to the series: Oakland has had their division crown on for a good week and a half, so they've been resting and preparing for this series. Like the Padres, they've been a big disappointment as far as Playoffs go for the past few years. They also have a psychological bump to get over. But they've got a better team than they've possibly ever had in the past few years. Though the starting pitching trio of Zito/Harden/Haren is less flashy than the past trio of Mulder/Hudson/Zito, it's been no less effective. And the offense is where the real difference comes in. By acquired DH Frank Thomas at a bargain price in the offseason, this lineup has transformed into one with a real slugging threat. In turn, it's sured up the rest of the lineup, and there have been good contributions from a bunch of players.
Minnesota is equally as good, though, if not better. Their pitching, led by AL Cy Young lock Johan Santana, has stepped up over the course of the season. The one fault is that they are without SP Francisco Liriano, the stud rookie arm who, during one stretch, was even outpitching Santana. He won't be pitching due to injury, so that takes away something from the pitching rotation. It's uncertain whether Brad Radke will pitch well in the Playoffs, and Carlos Silva as well, so there are questions. But if the starters can get the ball to CL Joe Nathan, who, in my opinion, was the best Closer in the American League this season, they should be able to breath easy.
Prediction: Oakland As win series, 3-2.
Next, the battle for a coveted spot in the World Series!
National League
New York Mets [NL East Champions] vs. San Diego Padres [NL West Champions]
This series will draw a lot of attention to Mike Piazza getting one more chance to return to Shea Stadium again, albeit for the opposition. He alrady came back to Flushing once this regular season, as the Mets and Padres play one series in each other's home stadium every year. The fans cheered and chanted his name, showing proper adoration for all Piazza did for the Mets franchise, being the face of the team for a while, and making a lot of good memories. However, in the Playoffs, and the NLCS no less, this won't be as much about Piazza returning. It's about Piazza and the Padres being all that stand between the Mets and the World Series.
Looking ahead: For both of the Championship Series, we'll have to see how healthy the teams emerge from the Divisional Series. But assuming all things remain the same, the Mets should be able to handle the Padres. Amidst the Piazza fanfare during their series at Shea this season, the Mets swept the Padres in three straight games. I don't think they'll have a problem winning in San Diego, either. The Mets are good enough to make it to the World Series, even without Pedro, and it would be a disappointment if they didn't win this series. For the Padres, it wouldn't be a disappointment to make it as far as the NLCS this season. But the Met bats should be warmed up and ready to go, and the pitching tested adequately from the Divisional Series.
Prediction: NY Mets win series, 4-0.
New York Yankees [AL East Champions] vs. Oakland Athletics [AL West Champions]
The last time these two teams met, in 2003, Oakland had a legitimate chance to win. They had a chance to stop the Yankees from reaching the world series. The series will forever be remembered for one play, in which SS Derek Jeter made a spectacular, on-the-run backhand toss to C Jorge Posada, to make a game breaking play at the plate. But the reality of that series was, in short, Oakland choked. This year, they could have a chance to wipe that memory from the conscience of the fans. They once again have a team that can stop the Yankees. But it'll be tougher this time, because the Yankees have a better team than they did in 2003. It should be an interesting series.
Looking ahead: Health of the players will play a factor, but let's assume Randy Johnson is up to pitching, and Mariano Rivera is Mariano Rivera. The biggest question mark, then, will be SS Alex Rodriguez and 1B Jason Giambi. The ALDS will reveal whether A-Rod can post some significant Playoff numbers, and clutch hits, as well as if Giambi can hit with his banged up wrist. He'll be at DH for the ALDS, it looks like, with Gary Sheffield taking on 1B duties in the field. That may change for the ALCS, depending on how Sheffield handles 1B. But the As pitching will have to find a way to silence the Yankee bats, and the offense will have to relieve some pressure from the starters by giving them some early leads. If the games are 1- and 2-run margins by the 7th inning, it favors the Yankees. The As have to take at least one of the first two games in the Bronx, too, or else the pressure will be supremely on them, heading back to Oakland. But clearly, the pressure will be on Oakland from the start of this series.
Prediction: NY Yankees win series, 4-2.
And finally, there will be two teams, and one World Championship!
Subway Series! It's completely within the realm of possibility that this will happen, but of course the games need to be played. Still, in my vision of the 2006 Playoffs, this is how it will conclude. The Mets and Yankees. Best of seven games, winner take all. This isn't like 2000, either. This time, the two teams are amazingly even on paper. They both have good starting pitching, offenses that can explode with production, and bullpens that are nearly as good as one another. In my opinion, the Mets have a better bullpen, while the Yankees have a better lineup. As far as the regular series goes, it all equated to exact replica records. The Mets and Yankees had the same exact overall record [97-65], including matching home and road records. So, record-wise, they are quite literally equal.
Looking ahead: 2000 is only in the memory of the fans, at this point, because both these teams have very different teams. The Yankees have their core guys from this era still around, but the Mets don't have one player remaining from their 2000 squad. Again, assuming team health remains the same, what will make or break either team will be their pitching. Whichever team's pitchers, starting and relief, especially in the middle innings, can halt rallies, will set their side up well for victory.
This is the series where not having SP Pedro Martinez will hurt the Mets. Without Pedro, they lose a pitcher who has a lot of experience against the Yankees, and success against them, at that. The Closers will be crucial, as well. Mariano Rivera has been such a lock for the Yankees, every year they've won during this era of their franchise. Billy Wagner will have to be just as exceptional in order for the Mets to beat the Yankees. He may be able to slip up once or twice in the series leading up to this one, and not kill the Mets' run. But he cannot afford to make mistakes, or buckle under the pressure, come World Series time. Every game becomes important in the Playoffs, for one reason or another, and even moreso in the World Series. This is when and where Wagner will earn all the millions he's making. This is what they signed him on for: to slam the door on opponents in the Playoffs, and the World Series, no matter who it is, or how talented their lineup is.
When all's said and done, baseball will live up to one of its core prophecies, with the team possessing better pitching being what determines the World Champions, and not hitting. But also, whoever has more left in the tank, has more depth, and gets the better managing will determine who wins this series. But it's impossible for me to make a confident call on this, really, either way. This would make a stellar World Series, probably the best one since Yankees-Marlins in 2003, if not even better.
Having said all that, when all's said and done, I feel this one goes seven exciting and close games... and the 20-year Championship drought will end in Flushing!
Prediction: NY Mets win series, 4-3.
There you have it, my 2006 Playoff and World Series predictions!