interesting... i like the idea about men being legally responsible for the pregnancy they helped cause also, and that there should be more invested into social programs that would help out young mothers (but i feel like this would come with higher taxes, or at least better managed taxes, not lower). i totally agree about adoption. my brother in law was looking into it, and it was going to cost more than having invitro. that makes no sense to me
so sorry to take forever to reply to this. im travelling around the world right now, and dont have reliable internet all the time. will be back in toga dec 20-27 if youre around and free at all
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Suppose there were 1 million abortions in 1983, that people aged 23 in 2006 had a median income of $30,000, and that their income was all OASDI taxable payroll. These numbers are really approximate, but roughly consistent with Guttmacher data on abortion and Census data on income.
If we assume that aborted fetuses instead grew up to be median productivity adults, that makes an additional inflow to Social Security of a little less than $2 billion in 2005. At the peak of their earnings potential they would represent an inflow of about $4 billion (in 2009 dollars). Social Security disbursed about $516.2 billion in 2008. Tweak my assumptions as you like, but it's clear that this guy is being silly.
If you really want to postpone the entitlement benefits collapse by population engineering, the ticket is worker visas with no path to citizenship, no benefits - and no quota.
On second thought, it's not quite that silly, because the $4 bn is per year, per year. In 2036, some post-Roe abortions will have happened 63 years ago. There would be 40 to 45 years' worth of hypothetical additional workers, all in the workforce simultaneously, and none of them drawing Social Security checks yet. $160bn/year is real money, even on the federal scale. In fact, it's roughly the difference between the fully meeting the program's obligations, and the 75% payout actually projected for the late 2030s. Sound right? Someone please correct me, if not.
Of course, the boost is temporary, because then all those extra people start retiring themselves.
The bit about the boost being temporary is mostly what I had in mind.
But also:
Your reasoning doesn't really think about how many fewer abortions criminalizing it actually makes. I don't really know. (But certainly more dead women. Maybe that's an important factor...)
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If we assume that aborted fetuses instead grew up to be median productivity adults, that makes an additional inflow to Social Security of a little less than $2 billion in 2005. At the peak of their earnings potential they would represent an inflow of about $4 billion (in 2009 dollars). Social Security disbursed about $516.2 billion in 2008. Tweak my assumptions as you like, but it's clear that this guy is being silly.
If you really want to postpone the entitlement benefits collapse by population engineering, the ticket is worker visas with no path to citizenship, no benefits - and no quota.
Reply
Of course, the boost is temporary, because then all those extra people start retiring themselves.
Reply
But also:
Your reasoning doesn't really think about how many fewer abortions criminalizing it actually makes. I don't really know. (But certainly more dead women. Maybe that's an important factor...)
Reply
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