In thinking about The Hobbit today, I've hit a guess as to the proximate reason that Jackson decided he wanted three films. (The studio's reason is clearly "more money".) I think it may be significant that nobody has ever said a word about where Jackson planned to split the story into two films. My guess is that after watching a rough cut of most
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And I see your point about breaking up the story into three points rather than two. The logical spots to break are then at the Eagles' nest (or Beorn's home) and then just after the escape from the Elvenking's lair.
All that said, if Jackson chooses three two-hour movies over two three-hour movies, I think we'll all be well-pleased with the results. (Well, except for the extra $10/head that we'll have to lay out in the summer of '14.)
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