Obama

[stormlorde]

Based on my personal analysis Obama will recieve 303 electoral votes, you heard it here first.

Comments

[barking_iguana]

Which of his 2008 states do you see him losing? Any pickups?

[stormlorde]

No Pickups, but this election will be closer, I see him losing NC and FLA this time around. My gamesmanshipesq analysis is that the simplest win for romney is to sweep OH, VA, and FLA conversely Obamas simplest win is to hold any one of those three states. I predict that he loses FLA and wins Va winning the election. I think OH will be close but I expect him to win there antway.

[barking_iguana]

I'd keep an eye on NC and at least for a while, on MI. I think ultimately, Obama wins because the contestable northern states have GOP governors, so resentment against incumbents in a bad economy stays real but doesn't turn into a juggernaut against one party.

[stormlorde]

I would not concede NC I just think he is behind to start with and the Gay marraige issue adds to much current to swim against, as for Michigan I thinks Romneys opposition to the Auto bailout makes michigan unwinnable for Romney.