Benediction
This is, I think, the last I will write about predictions of doom, if not the last thing I will write here at all. There was a debate about when we would reach the maximum per-month extraction rate of oil, and now unless a miracle occurs that debate is settled. There has been a debate between proponents of "fast crash" and "slow crash" scenarios, and that has now been settled as well. Any "crash" will happen slowly- not "building a million hydrogen fueling stations" or "converting to solar electricity" slow, but not that fast either. I say "will happen" but I think the proper phrase would be "is happening"- we're probably, in the long view, two years into a five year collapse of the United States as a viable economic and political entity, and folks, this is what it will look like.
Parodying teenagers is almost always a cheap shot, but many web sites will talk about catabolic collapse as a terrible six weeks some time in the near future- after I buy my land and finish blacksmithing school, but before the sheeple realize what's happening- and this is nonsense. This is simply reproducing the classic American story of the violent redemption of the elect: in a suddenly rules-free world the powerful will be brought low, while those who have evidenced their inherent virtue by making certain preparations will emerge as kings. This has nothing to do with history and everything to do with religion. Forget about it.
There are also three separate but interrelated phenomena being frequently confused with each other- the inability to expand production of petroleum and petro products, the failure of the American financial system, and climate change. While all three of these appeal to anyone scanning for a Millennium, they are fundamentally different, and operate on completely different time scales. The US economy has been undercutting its own security for three decades and is about over, the global "shortage" of petroleum is mostly going to unfold in the next decade, and climate change we can't even imagine yet. When people allegedly discussing oil markets start hyperventilating about volcanos under Yellowstone, you can change the channel. Similarly when environmentalists start talking about "Ameros." I'm concerned with the US economy because that's where I live.
What I mean when I say "crash" or "collapse," or what I actually expect to happen is probably depressingly pedestrian. Jobs will be harder to find, money will be scarce, everything will cost more, people will have to move more frequently, often in with each other. The best predictor of future economic crunches is past economic crunches- population movement into cities that maintain close economic ties with other economies, a lesser concern for worker rights, worse nutrition, lower life expectancy, more provisional local power structures... nothing you didn't see in Manhattan at the turn of the last century.
Do I think gas prices will go through the roof? Well, define roof. Gas could double in the US and still be significantly cheaper than it is right now in the UK. "Experts," whoever they are, say it would take $7/gal gas to change American consumer habits, which is high even compared to the supposedly apocalyptic scenario floated in the WorldWithoutOil game last summer. We can take increases in pump prices for a long time without flinching, really. Ask Britons if their country has dissolved into Mad Max chaos.
Similarly, food prices will probably go up too- wait, I mean they already are going up a lot. Commodity prices are at record highs- that's the corn, wheat and soybeans that form the basis of the American diet- and processed foods (like hippie whole wheat bread, or free range chicken) derived from these commodities will probably go up soon as well. Again, the story is that there is no story- we spend very little of our household budget on food, and what we do spend could probably be spent better. If food prices triple, or quadruple, we could probably all maintain our current budgets or even improve on them just by cooking more at home. If everybody bought fifty-pound bulk sacks of flour, dried beans, raisins, etc, we could manage through enormous increases in food costs.
This is one reason I've become (hypocritically) dubious about Moving To Land And Becoming Self Sufficient lately- it just seems ridiculous. I saw a pro-salvage article on the web about how a single steel girder could be cut up into usable chunks with a hacksaw and supply a village blacksmith (and hence a village) with necessary tools for years. My first thought was, here is a man who spends very little time with hacksaws. The most accessible aspect of self sufficiency- food- is probably not even worth it. If you're considering growing your own complete diet, may I recommend buying in bulk, planting a couple hundred square feet with leafy greens and using the time you save to run for the school board? I'm not anti-DIY food, obviously. Raising pigeons on the roof in a dovecote probably won't be your only access to protein, but the savings in your grocery bill might add up to the difference between getting your kids vaccinated or not. But the idea that what you grow is all you will have is romanticism, nothing more.
I mentioned school boards there. I think this is probably the single most important thing to remember- human social institutions are phenomenally durable. We are, as a species, fond of genocide, warlords, raiding, subjugation and misery, but also collective education, storytelling, celebratory feasting, and religion, and its remarkable how the latter group have historically survived the worst depradations of the former. It seems really crazy to think that oil shortages, or inflation would render libraries and fire department fish fries irrelevant, or that hiding out protecting your patch of jerusalem artichokes would somehow be a better use of your one lifetime than fixing roads or otherwise maintaining civic engagement. I don't mean dancing will end nuclear power or anything woo like that, but don't give up on other people just yet. They're still worth it.
So instead of the usual being-willing-to-kill and hiding-your-chicken-house, here are my suggestions for useful skills for my doom apocalypse scenario, tell me how you fare and suggest your own:
1) Being able to work for a jerk, who is mean to you, sixty hours a week for crap pay, if that's what it takes to feed your family-however-defined.
2) living with strangers for months at a time
3) cooking for lots of people including yourself
4) mending clothing
5) wearing mended clothing
6) eating weird food that happens to be available
7) sharing tools
8) making friends readily
9) compromise!
10) not sticking a knife up the ass of people whose interest in Jaysuss or whatever is annoying
11) not freaking out too much when you lose most of your stuff suddenly
12) recognizing opportunities
13) being willing to get up, move on, and start over somewhere else
The hero of the future isn't a tense, gritty mountain man warrior. The hero of the future is an affable, friendly person with tolerant attitudes and a decent head for other folks intentions. Period.
A
look, livejournal and similar blogs are really just celebrations of the self, and right now I don't feel like anyone who should be celebrated. So I will probably go away for a while. Please be nice to Sara- I have trouble remember to do that sometimes- and I will still probably respond to emails. thanks everybody
Parodying teenagers is almost always a cheap shot, but many web sites will talk about catabolic collapse as a terrible six weeks some time in the near future- after I buy my land and finish blacksmithing school, but before the sheeple realize what's happening- and this is nonsense. This is simply reproducing the classic American story of the violent redemption of the elect: in a suddenly rules-free world the powerful will be brought low, while those who have evidenced their inherent virtue by making certain preparations will emerge as kings. This has nothing to do with history and everything to do with religion. Forget about it.
There are also three separate but interrelated phenomena being frequently confused with each other- the inability to expand production of petroleum and petro products, the failure of the American financial system, and climate change. While all three of these appeal to anyone scanning for a Millennium, they are fundamentally different, and operate on completely different time scales. The US economy has been undercutting its own security for three decades and is about over, the global "shortage" of petroleum is mostly going to unfold in the next decade, and climate change we can't even imagine yet. When people allegedly discussing oil markets start hyperventilating about volcanos under Yellowstone, you can change the channel. Similarly when environmentalists start talking about "Ameros." I'm concerned with the US economy because that's where I live.
What I mean when I say "crash" or "collapse," or what I actually expect to happen is probably depressingly pedestrian. Jobs will be harder to find, money will be scarce, everything will cost more, people will have to move more frequently, often in with each other. The best predictor of future economic crunches is past economic crunches- population movement into cities that maintain close economic ties with other economies, a lesser concern for worker rights, worse nutrition, lower life expectancy, more provisional local power structures... nothing you didn't see in Manhattan at the turn of the last century.
Do I think gas prices will go through the roof? Well, define roof. Gas could double in the US and still be significantly cheaper than it is right now in the UK. "Experts," whoever they are, say it would take $7/gal gas to change American consumer habits, which is high even compared to the supposedly apocalyptic scenario floated in the WorldWithoutOil game last summer. We can take increases in pump prices for a long time without flinching, really. Ask Britons if their country has dissolved into Mad Max chaos.
Similarly, food prices will probably go up too- wait, I mean they already are going up a lot. Commodity prices are at record highs- that's the corn, wheat and soybeans that form the basis of the American diet- and processed foods (like hippie whole wheat bread, or free range chicken) derived from these commodities will probably go up soon as well. Again, the story is that there is no story- we spend very little of our household budget on food, and what we do spend could probably be spent better. If food prices triple, or quadruple, we could probably all maintain our current budgets or even improve on them just by cooking more at home. If everybody bought fifty-pound bulk sacks of flour, dried beans, raisins, etc, we could manage through enormous increases in food costs.
This is one reason I've become (hypocritically) dubious about Moving To Land And Becoming Self Sufficient lately- it just seems ridiculous. I saw a pro-salvage article on the web about how a single steel girder could be cut up into usable chunks with a hacksaw and supply a village blacksmith (and hence a village) with necessary tools for years. My first thought was, here is a man who spends very little time with hacksaws. The most accessible aspect of self sufficiency- food- is probably not even worth it. If you're considering growing your own complete diet, may I recommend buying in bulk, planting a couple hundred square feet with leafy greens and using the time you save to run for the school board? I'm not anti-DIY food, obviously. Raising pigeons on the roof in a dovecote probably won't be your only access to protein, but the savings in your grocery bill might add up to the difference between getting your kids vaccinated or not. But the idea that what you grow is all you will have is romanticism, nothing more.
I mentioned school boards there. I think this is probably the single most important thing to remember- human social institutions are phenomenally durable. We are, as a species, fond of genocide, warlords, raiding, subjugation and misery, but also collective education, storytelling, celebratory feasting, and religion, and its remarkable how the latter group have historically survived the worst depradations of the former. It seems really crazy to think that oil shortages, or inflation would render libraries and fire department fish fries irrelevant, or that hiding out protecting your patch of jerusalem artichokes would somehow be a better use of your one lifetime than fixing roads or otherwise maintaining civic engagement. I don't mean dancing will end nuclear power or anything woo like that, but don't give up on other people just yet. They're still worth it.
So instead of the usual being-willing-to-kill and hiding-your-chicken-house, here are my suggestions for useful skills for my doom apocalypse scenario, tell me how you fare and suggest your own:
1) Being able to work for a jerk, who is mean to you, sixty hours a week for crap pay, if that's what it takes to feed your family-however-defined.
2) living with strangers for months at a time
3) cooking for lots of people including yourself
4) mending clothing
5) wearing mended clothing
6) eating weird food that happens to be available
7) sharing tools
8) making friends readily
9) compromise!
10) not sticking a knife up the ass of people whose interest in Jaysuss or whatever is annoying
11) not freaking out too much when you lose most of your stuff suddenly
12) recognizing opportunities
13) being willing to get up, move on, and start over somewhere else
The hero of the future isn't a tense, gritty mountain man warrior. The hero of the future is an affable, friendly person with tolerant attitudes and a decent head for other folks intentions. Period.
A
look, livejournal and similar blogs are really just celebrations of the self, and right now I don't feel like anyone who should be celebrated. So I will probably go away for a while. Please be nice to Sara- I have trouble remember to do that sometimes- and I will still probably respond to emails. thanks everybody