Words like bullets
A lot of ink has been spilled over the Israeli-Turkish scandal in the wake of the Israeli raid on the flotilla. One thing keeps getting repeated: "Nothing will be the same any more". That was repeated by the Turkish PM Erdogan himself, as well. I think his words summarise the situation in the Middle East very properly. And things are of course much deeper than what they seem on the surface.
Not surprisingly, most people are focusing on blame games without delving much deeper into the root cause for the whole situation. And it has little to do with humanitarian aid and its even not about the Palestinians. Its now obvious that Turkey's aspirations for playing a more active role in the Mideast is changing the situation in the region very fast, and the Palestinian issue is only getting caught in the process on a very secondary level.
Whether the flotilla episode was a provocation from Turkey, or a poorly planned act by the Israeli troops, or both, depends on your point of view. The only certain thing in the whole story is that the bloody showdown on that ship has highlighted the huge rift between the two regional powerhouses who used to be allies until very recently. But it is in no way the very reason for that rift - assuming so would be a too short-sighted thing to do. True, i dont remember the world having ever heard such a sharp reaction coming from Turkey ever in modern history, as the rhetoric we're hearing these days from their prime minister, Erdogan. Some Turkish newspapers called Erdogan's speeches "words like bullets". The whole verbal aggression made lots of people predict even the coming of a real "hot war", but even if that doesnt happen (and i surely think it won't), it marks the death of a very unusual friendship. In his reaction speech, Erdogan noted that "Turkey's animosity is as strong as its friendship is valuable".
For many years, Turkey used to be Israel's only ally within the Muslim world, but this friendship was fatally shot as early as the Israeli strikes on Gaza in 2009, and the long series of diplomatic rows which ensued only contributed to worsening the situation. So it now turns out the Turko-Israeli relations can no longer be seen as part of the Middle East equation. And there doesnt seem to be any way they could be repaired in the near future. At least not while both Erdogan and Netanyahu are in power. Because of the unusually harsh rhetoric of the Turkish PM, many analysts have hurried to declare a sharp turn in Turkey's foreign relations. But thats simply not true. Erdogan is not stupid, and none of his actions are ever dictated by some momentous whimsical reaction or emotion. His policies on the diplomatic front have been pretty consistent, and they follow a certain pattern and a well-thought long-term strategy which is subject to influence by a host of domestic factors. Actually the shift we're talking about has been happening for quite some time, and its only now that most people are beginning to realise that. The only different thing in this particular case is not the essence of his policies, but rather the tone he uses to assert them. And this is mostly due to Erdogan's decision himself, not an effect from the thus developed situation.
We have to understand Erdogan's motivation in all this. And i do mean Turkey's motivation. Not Erdogan the person, but Erdogan the prime minister. Because it would've been too easy and simplistic to just assume that he's butthurt from the insult which Israel did to him with their actions in Gaza in 2009, and he's taken it personally, end of story.
But sure, the Israeli offensive in Gaza from a year ago indeed did hit not only Hamas and the Gaza Palestinians, but also Erdogan's prestige, as it was him who had invested great efforts acting as a mediator, and he actually had some success in facilitating the negotiations with Syria. So its normal to conclude that he never managed to overcome this slap across his face, and it'd be easy to see how his actions ever since 2009 have steered the Turko-Israeli relations to the point where we're seeing them now.
Meanwhile, its important to note that these actions are not something isolated - Erdogan is following a policy which enjoys a huge support back in his country - simply because it is a result from processes that are underway in Turkey itself. A large middle class of peope with a strong Islamic mindset has been developing in Turkey for years, and it would be too mild to say that they dont approve Israel's policy towards the Palestinians. Even if a sharp change in the direction of Ankara's foreign relations is not exactly the case, its certain that one of its pillars has been undermined anyway - the so-called "zero problems with our neighbours" policy. This policy was very useful to Ankara for improving their relations with the Kurds and with most countries in the region, which fact wasnt always to Israel's taste. After the latest events, Turkey's position on the Middle East peace process has irretrievably changed..
Turkey's role as a mediator is now in the past. The equation is changing. They're showing a more active, and by the way openly pro-Palestinian position. But i repeat: they're not doing it for the beautiful eyes of the Palestinians. Even if there's still some chance for Turkey to retain their positive role in solving problems in other regions of the world, as they've done on the Balkans. Really, there's no "new" general line in the Turkish foreign policy: Erdogan's recent visit to Greece, and Turkey's efforts to reconcile Bosnians and Serbs on the Balkans, or his huge efforts to improve Turkey's relations with Russia (resulting in serious talks about some shared strategic energy projects) simply show Ankara's desire to be more active, rather than being taken for granted.
Turkey's anger has certainly made some red lights to beep across the Pond as well. While during the Cold War, Turkey was being seen by the US simply as the "lesser partner" in the big game against the Soviets, now their role has grown a lot (and not only because they're now the 16th biggest economy in the world), and Turkey has enjoyed a significant geopolitical emancipation since then. This process became particularly evident on the Middle East front, where Turkey turned from a mere spectator into an active player.
The culmination came a few weeks ago when, together with Brazil, Turkey managed to grab a deal with Iran for exchanging nuclear fuel. After this controversial deal and in the light of this week's events which lead to the ultimate rift with Israel, the concerns expressed in some US media are logical - they're afraid Turkey is turning from America's key partner in the Middle East into an actual competitor for the dominant role in the region. After the Ankara vs Tel Aviv scandal, the White House now finds itself in a very delicate position between its two "spoilt kids" in the region, and Obama should be looking very carefully at every step he makes.
But IMO all that should rather have a positive effect. Here's why. Obama's administration will now have to do some extra effort and use their brains to seek a more active involvement in the Middle East peace process. He'll surely need to do more than just sending Biden over there to deliver a couple of nonsensical speeches. Maintaining the dialogue between the Israelis and the Palestinians is the single most important task in the region, because thats the only way that the West could possibly focus on dealing with another sensitive issue - Iran's nuclear program.
I'm thinking what is needed right now in this hot situation with the ships to Gaza is that everyone slows down the tempo a bit and chills, because lots of things have been said over a short span of time, and lots of emotional statements have been made which some people could later regret. I'm afraid such an overwinding of the spring would only divert the attention away from the main mission in the region - the peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.
Ankara's behaviour from the last few days has probably also confused lots of smartheads in Europe, where the prospect of Turkey's entry to EU remains a very controversial topic. The sight of thousands of people protesting on the streets of all major cities from Cairo to Jerusalem, flying the Turkish flag and carrying Erdogan's portrait, is evidence for Turkey's increasing popularity in the Arab world; but it has probably fueled the anti-Turkish sentiments in most European cities in the meantime.
But completely writing off Turkey's European future would be equally rash as praising Turkey's new role... These events will only make the debate about Turkey's European future and Turkey's Middle East future more complicated, on both sides of the Atlantic.
Not surprisingly, most people are focusing on blame games without delving much deeper into the root cause for the whole situation. And it has little to do with humanitarian aid and its even not about the Palestinians. Its now obvious that Turkey's aspirations for playing a more active role in the Mideast is changing the situation in the region very fast, and the Palestinian issue is only getting caught in the process on a very secondary level.
Whether the flotilla episode was a provocation from Turkey, or a poorly planned act by the Israeli troops, or both, depends on your point of view. The only certain thing in the whole story is that the bloody showdown on that ship has highlighted the huge rift between the two regional powerhouses who used to be allies until very recently. But it is in no way the very reason for that rift - assuming so would be a too short-sighted thing to do. True, i dont remember the world having ever heard such a sharp reaction coming from Turkey ever in modern history, as the rhetoric we're hearing these days from their prime minister, Erdogan. Some Turkish newspapers called Erdogan's speeches "words like bullets". The whole verbal aggression made lots of people predict even the coming of a real "hot war", but even if that doesnt happen (and i surely think it won't), it marks the death of a very unusual friendship. In his reaction speech, Erdogan noted that "Turkey's animosity is as strong as its friendship is valuable".
For many years, Turkey used to be Israel's only ally within the Muslim world, but this friendship was fatally shot as early as the Israeli strikes on Gaza in 2009, and the long series of diplomatic rows which ensued only contributed to worsening the situation. So it now turns out the Turko-Israeli relations can no longer be seen as part of the Middle East equation. And there doesnt seem to be any way they could be repaired in the near future. At least not while both Erdogan and Netanyahu are in power. Because of the unusually harsh rhetoric of the Turkish PM, many analysts have hurried to declare a sharp turn in Turkey's foreign relations. But thats simply not true. Erdogan is not stupid, and none of his actions are ever dictated by some momentous whimsical reaction or emotion. His policies on the diplomatic front have been pretty consistent, and they follow a certain pattern and a well-thought long-term strategy which is subject to influence by a host of domestic factors. Actually the shift we're talking about has been happening for quite some time, and its only now that most people are beginning to realise that. The only different thing in this particular case is not the essence of his policies, but rather the tone he uses to assert them. And this is mostly due to Erdogan's decision himself, not an effect from the thus developed situation.
We have to understand Erdogan's motivation in all this. And i do mean Turkey's motivation. Not Erdogan the person, but Erdogan the prime minister. Because it would've been too easy and simplistic to just assume that he's butthurt from the insult which Israel did to him with their actions in Gaza in 2009, and he's taken it personally, end of story.
But sure, the Israeli offensive in Gaza from a year ago indeed did hit not only Hamas and the Gaza Palestinians, but also Erdogan's prestige, as it was him who had invested great efforts acting as a mediator, and he actually had some success in facilitating the negotiations with Syria. So its normal to conclude that he never managed to overcome this slap across his face, and it'd be easy to see how his actions ever since 2009 have steered the Turko-Israeli relations to the point where we're seeing them now.
Meanwhile, its important to note that these actions are not something isolated - Erdogan is following a policy which enjoys a huge support back in his country - simply because it is a result from processes that are underway in Turkey itself. A large middle class of peope with a strong Islamic mindset has been developing in Turkey for years, and it would be too mild to say that they dont approve Israel's policy towards the Palestinians. Even if a sharp change in the direction of Ankara's foreign relations is not exactly the case, its certain that one of its pillars has been undermined anyway - the so-called "zero problems with our neighbours" policy. This policy was very useful to Ankara for improving their relations with the Kurds and with most countries in the region, which fact wasnt always to Israel's taste. After the latest events, Turkey's position on the Middle East peace process has irretrievably changed..
Turkey's role as a mediator is now in the past. The equation is changing. They're showing a more active, and by the way openly pro-Palestinian position. But i repeat: they're not doing it for the beautiful eyes of the Palestinians. Even if there's still some chance for Turkey to retain their positive role in solving problems in other regions of the world, as they've done on the Balkans. Really, there's no "new" general line in the Turkish foreign policy: Erdogan's recent visit to Greece, and Turkey's efforts to reconcile Bosnians and Serbs on the Balkans, or his huge efforts to improve Turkey's relations with Russia (resulting in serious talks about some shared strategic energy projects) simply show Ankara's desire to be more active, rather than being taken for granted.
Turkey's anger has certainly made some red lights to beep across the Pond as well. While during the Cold War, Turkey was being seen by the US simply as the "lesser partner" in the big game against the Soviets, now their role has grown a lot (and not only because they're now the 16th biggest economy in the world), and Turkey has enjoyed a significant geopolitical emancipation since then. This process became particularly evident on the Middle East front, where Turkey turned from a mere spectator into an active player.
The culmination came a few weeks ago when, together with Brazil, Turkey managed to grab a deal with Iran for exchanging nuclear fuel. After this controversial deal and in the light of this week's events which lead to the ultimate rift with Israel, the concerns expressed in some US media are logical - they're afraid Turkey is turning from America's key partner in the Middle East into an actual competitor for the dominant role in the region. After the Ankara vs Tel Aviv scandal, the White House now finds itself in a very delicate position between its two "spoilt kids" in the region, and Obama should be looking very carefully at every step he makes.
But IMO all that should rather have a positive effect. Here's why. Obama's administration will now have to do some extra effort and use their brains to seek a more active involvement in the Middle East peace process. He'll surely need to do more than just sending Biden over there to deliver a couple of nonsensical speeches. Maintaining the dialogue between the Israelis and the Palestinians is the single most important task in the region, because thats the only way that the West could possibly focus on dealing with another sensitive issue - Iran's nuclear program.
I'm thinking what is needed right now in this hot situation with the ships to Gaza is that everyone slows down the tempo a bit and chills, because lots of things have been said over a short span of time, and lots of emotional statements have been made which some people could later regret. I'm afraid such an overwinding of the spring would only divert the attention away from the main mission in the region - the peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.
Ankara's behaviour from the last few days has probably also confused lots of smartheads in Europe, where the prospect of Turkey's entry to EU remains a very controversial topic. The sight of thousands of people protesting on the streets of all major cities from Cairo to Jerusalem, flying the Turkish flag and carrying Erdogan's portrait, is evidence for Turkey's increasing popularity in the Arab world; but it has probably fueled the anti-Turkish sentiments in most European cities in the meantime.
But completely writing off Turkey's European future would be equally rash as praising Turkey's new role... These events will only make the debate about Turkey's European future and Turkey's Middle East future more complicated, on both sides of the Atlantic.