Eisenberg and Portman are excellent choices. As for their shot of winning... don't count them out. Even though Colin Firth has been pretty much sweeping the critics choice awards for best actor, there is a lot of buzz for The Social Network and we might be able to see a semi-sweep for the film, including Eisenberg for actor.

As for Portman, I'd actually say it's between her and Annette Bening in a two-way race at the moment. So in that case, she has a very good chance at winning.