min maxing cancer

[thebenedictine]

using the breast cancer risk calculator at http://www.cancer.gov/bcrisktool/Read more... )

Comments

[chrsjxn]

That's... just a little bit creepy.

And now I'm somewhat morbidly curious if they have calculators for other types of cancer...

[thebenedictine]

i don't know, but i will make one just for you!

lung cancer
do you smoke?
yes -> a billion
no -> not a billion

colon cancer
do you eat carcinogens?
yes -> a billion
no -> how do you know?

prostate cancer
flip a coin
heads -> a billion
tails -> not a billion

[rjmccall]

I'm pretty sure prostate cancer is more like

flip a coin
heads -> yes
tails -> yes

and then it's just a question of whether it'll kill you in five years or two hundred.

[Edited for markup]

[chrsjxn]

I might like her odds better.

[thebenedictine]

but if i had known that it would go down to 7.3% if I had had my first kid before 20...

[rjmccall]

You're assuming a causative influence.

[lars_chan]

Thank you... this may have saved my sanity. Reading all of the "Things that increase risk of _____" at my doctors' offices has made me feel doomed, especially because of seemingly innocent things such as not having kids. (WTF biology?!?)

[rjmccall]

Suppose that a given child has a fixed annual probability of killing and eating their parents, and similarly that a woman has a fixed annual probability of developing breast cancer. We can safely assume, I think, that these events are independent. Now, let us consider a mother who falls into both groups - i.e. one who develops a cancer and then is subsequently slain and consumed by her progeny. Whether such a woman is actually counted towards the incidence rate of breast cancer depends solely on whether her cancer has been previously detected: her startling and horrific death precludes any subsequent detection. Thus such women will likely be undercounted in the reported incidence rates.

[lillokiangel]

Given what I do for a living, I'm pretty convinced that we're all going to get breast cancer (women) and prostate (men) and lung/colon cancer.

[jameel]

Yes, but the trick is to get it when you're like ninety.

[aleffert]

Does consider a possible third variable such as women who have kids younger die younger (note I do not actually know if this is true, but it seems likely), hence are less likely to get breast cancer?