We really are doomed. It's official.

[thegreenman]

George Monbiot managed to get this recently out of Fatih Birol, the Chief Economist at the International Energy Agency:

“In terms of non-OPEC [countries outside the big oil producers’ cartel]”, he replied, “we are expecting that in three, four years’ time the production of conventional oil will come to a plateau, and start to decline. In terms of

Comments

[bateleur]

That's a lot earlier than even a pessimist like me was assuming.

But still not quite early enough to stop global warming by running out of oil. Even EU leaders would have trouble vetoing that one!

[thegreenman]

Indeed no. Plenty of other sources of human sourced CO2, Methane and Halocarbons.

I was referring specifically to peak oil.

[onebyone]

I've seen peak oil predictions placing the peak in the past. I can still get the bus into town OK.

With oil price ranging from $50 to $140 and back again in the last year or so, I don't quite see how one might go about predicting oil production in the short term. 3-4 years, I guess that you know no unexpected oilfields will be opened that soon, so isn't it largely a question of how much the producers choose to pump? Medium term, it's about what oil reserves the owners choose to exploit.

Does none of this depend at all on how much you or I is willing to pay for it? Anyone who can predict oil prices accurately should not be working on peak oil estimates, they should be becoming a multi-billionaire on the oil futures market.

[thegreenman]

Dunno mate.

I merely point out that the guy who does the numbers in the organisation that the governments of the world use for advice on energy resources has finally gone public with a date (well two dates - Opec and Non Opec) for when he thinks oil production will peak.

Not some saliva flecked zealot for the ultra green movement. Not some Scientist receiving his research money from Exxon.

The Chief Economist of the IEA. If he doesn't know then nobody does.