Ukraine Notes

Mar 30, 2022 01:06

Nukes and chemical/biological weapons aside, no wonder Putin doesn't want NATO involved! Things look really bleak for the Russians.



Ukraine Notes

In conflicting news reports, another article says US military officials have not seen Russian preparations for chemical attacks. This could be a matter of publication timing, I.e. reading articles out of order or conflicting sources. Or maybe Putin isn’t stupid and he’s not going to use chemical weapons. Which would be good.

A SEVENTH Russian general has been killed in battle, this their second Lt. General - the highest rank reported killed. It is speculated that the generals are working closer to the front due to poor morale. Continuing in the BBC article, “On Friday, a western official reported that a Russian colonel had been deliberately run over and killed by his own men, as a result of the scale of losses taken by his brigade.” Russia has finally updated their official casualty numbers and says some 1400 have been killed. Putin has only acknowledged the death of one general.

In war, secure communications are everything. Russia went to a lot of time and effort developing a secure comm system for their army. And it doesn't work. I heard one of its problems was that it required cell towers to work, and that was one of the army's first targets. Seems a little counter-productive. Regardless, the army has been seizing/stealing insecure walkie-talkies and personal cell phones whenever they can to give them communication devices, and since the Ukrainians control the remaining cell phone infrastructure, it's child's play to intercept and listen in on what the Russians are saying. This was how they confirmed that they had killed one of the Russian Generals. Russia has lots of orbiting communications satellites: why didn't they use them?

A Russian commander was heard shouting over these open communications "DON'T USE LAST NAMES!" Apparently Ukraine has a special radio intercept unit trying to identify where the Russian high-level commanders are, then they send out a special army unit to try to take them out. And with some success.

A report says that Russian troops have three days of supplies left. With the rails from Belarus shut down and very bad resupply from the very beginning, this will greatly hamper their operational tempo and probably increase the defection rate of troops. The shelling of Mariupol from the fleet in the Sea of Azov will probably continue as at-sea replenishment is a practiced maneuver so they can continue their bombardment.

Supply problems are an issue on both sides. Ukraine apparently is also running low on most weapons and munitions and a Guardian report says UK PM BoJo was told they go through a week’s worth of munitions in TWENTY HOURS.

A Russian ship has been lost! The Orsk, described as an amphibious landing craft capable of transporting 20 tanks, 45 armored personnel carriers, and 400 men caught fire and sank. Explosions were reported, probably internal ammo cooking off. Two other ships berthed nearby were damaged. Source of the fire is unknown. It was reported that the Russians had been intercepting every rocket and missile thrown against the harbor installation, so it could have been a simple internal mistake: ships burn easily, that’s why there’s always supposed to be an internal fire watch patrolling high-risk spaces.
Russian warship destroyed in occupied port of Berdyansk, says Ukraine https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60859337

Ukrainian troops have pushed the Russians BACK from Kyiv! They’ve actually regained ground in the northwest section! They’re still under attack by missiles and artillery, but the ground attack has been repulsed, which is good. One month in to the war, and Russia has taken no new cities. It was reported that the Ukrainians were attempting an encirclement of the Russian army!

The FBI is trolling the Russian Embassy in Washington, DC by doing geographically-targeted ads on Facebook, Twitter, and Google trying to recruit individuals who speak Russian. A Washington Post reporter received the ad in their FB feed while standing next to the embassy but didn’t when standing across the street. Basically trying to tap anyone. Disaffected by the invasion of the Ukraine. ROFL!

Slashdot is where I got the above FBI trolling story from. At the bottom of each page they publish a little saying. Today it said "Any excuse will serve a tyrant." -- Aesop. Gee, how applicable to current events.

Again, from Slashdot: Ukraine has destroyed over 270 tanks - nearly 10% of Russia’s total! Which brings up the question, are tanks over? If (comparatively) cheap drones and Javelin missiles are so effective, are tanks worth it? Now, chances are these tanks are at a minimum T-72s or better as that tank was introduced in 1969. Wikipedia says those cost of 0.5 to $1,200,000 per unit. Times 270. So that’s easily $200m right there, plus the men killed in them. Plus losing the Orsk and any equipment on that: ships start at over half a billion and go up from there. This is another big Putin mistake: he’s not going to be able to afford to replace all of this equipment that is burning!

A privately-owned computer museum in Mariupol with more than 500 pieces of vintage gear was destroyed by a bomb, the owner also lost his house. This was confirmed by the Ukrainian Software and Computer Museum, which operates museums in Kharkiv and Kyiv. The owner, at least, is safe.

Russia is considering accepting Bitcoin for oil and gas as a way to get around the sanctions being imposed on them. The Rouble is down over 20%.

Russia launched the invasion with disabling tens of thousands of KA band satellite modems, disabling communications for lots of people and companies. This just goes to highlight the vulnerability of bad firmware and lack of updates. The company, Viasat, now has the joy, trouble, and expense of replacing all of those units. Washington Post reported ‘this may have had a serious impact on degrading Ukrainian military capabilities at the onset of the war’, if so, they sure recovered quick.

Recently, as in the past few days, Russia has stepped up the cyber attacks on Ukraine’s remaining internet providers in an attempt to disrupt government communications.

This is just lovely news. The components for making dirty bombs, i.e. non-nuclear bombs containing nuclear ingredients that really mess up landscapes when detonated, have gone missing from the Chernobyl site since the Russians have complete control over it. Troops stole radioactive isotopes used to calibrate radiation monitoring equipment, and this is the exact sort of stuff you would use to mix with conventional munitions to make dirty bombs. I have no idea if this is a short or long time-frame thing, i.e. could these be turned around quickly and be used in the Ukraine war.

A video has surfaced that allegedly shows Ukrainian army personnel shooting captured Russian forces in the knee while interrogating them. The head of the Ukrainian army is investigating. This is obviously a war crime, but kind of pales compared to the war crimes that Putin has propagated, not that there is justification in responding like for like.

Russia has been taking prisoners from Ukraine deeply into Russia and dispersing them around the country. First reported as a group of 40, including reporters, now being reported as a group of over 4,000 from Mariupol. They are being sent as far east as the Sakhalin Islands, which is pretty much the Arctic/Pacific oceans. They are also being forced to sign identity cards that bans them from leaving Russia for two years!

In an interesting bit of news, Ukraine has more tanks now than at the start of the war! Russia has lost over 500 tanks in combat. Ukraine has lost 74 of their own, but captured about 120, giving them a net gain! The Reddit for Tractors Stealing Tanks, which I previously posted, still has lovely photos and videos.

Russia has been losing a lot of their latest tech aircraft in combat. The reason being? They've used up pretty much all of their precision guided munitions, which means their latest toys have to use dumb bombs, forcing them to fly lower and slower to visually aim, making them a lot more vulnerable to anti-aircraft missiles.

It's obvious the war is going very badly indeed for Russia. So what's to be done for Russia? Move the goal posts! They've redefined the war, saying that the "first phase of the war in Ukraine has been a success" and they're now going to refocus operations in Donetsk. So a partial withdrawal? I expect they're going to continue their seaside bombardment unless something happens to stop those ships from operating.

It would appear that at a peace conference, a chemical agent was released. Participants reported eye irritation and skin peeling. Nothing more than that, no hospitalizations or deaths reported.

There's an interesting characteristic about the Russian army doing the invasion: their uniforms have a white stripe on the cuff. They are not ethnic Russians, they're taken from other races throughout the country. This is probably to reduce the chance of a popular uprising from people losing family in Moscow, St. Petersburg, etc. Bring the army in from all over the place outside of the major population centers, safer for the government. They also brought along a mobile crematorium so no pictures of lots of body bags going back home, but reports are that they're leaving bodies of the fallen where they lay when they withdraw, leaving a problem for the Ukrainian locals to deal with.

ukraine war

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