A question.

[thomasblair]

Is there any credence to the idea that part of the reason for the market's continuing slump is the high probability of Obama's election?

If yes: if he is to be elected, and it seems all but certain now, how long might this last?

If no: what is your prediction for the bottom of the slump? Dow @ 8000? 7000? 6000? Gold @ $700? 600? 500?

Comments

[charl33t]

What gives you the impression that the mere probability of Obama winning is contributing to the economic crisis? He has little to nothing to do with the big reason of why it has happened.

The market is irrational, to be sure, but...

[thomasblair]

He's openly advocated raising the capital gains tax to 28%. The top income tax bracket will almost certainly go back to Clintonian levels (+4.6 percentage points to 39.6%) and others may follow. There's even been talk in recent days of eliminating the tax-favored treatment of 401(k) plans and instituting a national pension system (wholly separate but similar in practice to Social Security).

These things tend to ruffle the knickers of anyone with money in the market, which is to say, nearly everyone.

You're right - he has little to nothing to do with why it happened. I'm curious to know if anyone thinks it will continue to act this way if he's elected.

Re: The market is irrational, to be sure, but...

[charl33t]

A national pension system? Great-- another government run money pool that will be abused by lazy people looking to steal the money made by hard working people.

Re: The market is irrational, to be sure, but...

[thomasblair]

Great-- another government run money pool that will be abused by lazy people looking to steal the money made by hard working people.

Aye. It's a messy, messy shit creek we're heading down here. I'm curious to know when this particular section of Class IV shitwater rapids will be over.