My debate notes--Foreign Policy
As promised last night, here are my notes/liveblog of the foreign policy section of the debate (behind the cut). I've also included my final thoughts at the end.
8:40: QUESTION: What are the lessons of Iraq?
McCain: We need a good strategy, not a bad one. McCain claims that he fought for a good strategy all along. Says that we are winning in Iraq and that we can come home with honor. We have to win because of Iran, and if we don’t win we’ll have to go back.
Obama: Says the real question is whether we should have gone in the first place. Gives all the reasons why going in was bad and how he saw all of this coming. Notes all the bad consequences that have come from our going into Iraq: Increased power and presence of Al Qaeda, $600 billion spent, 4000 dead, 30,000 wounded, $10 billion a month in additional spending. Says that he won’t hesitate to use force when necessary, but we have to be wise in using it. **It seems to me that the two of them are going to have competing lenses through which we are supposed to view the issue: Obama wants us to look at the judgment in making the original decision. McCain wants us to think about who is right about what is happening right now and the past is irrelevant.**
McCain: Says that the next president is not going to have to address whether or not to go into Iraq, the surge worked and Obama opposed it. Then says that Obama never held hearings on Afghanistan. **Yup, looks like I was right about what McCain is trying to do**
8:43: Obama: He explains the hearing thing, saying that Joe Biden is the chairman of the committee and when the chairman wants to hold full committee hearings on the subject, that’s what you do. Obama then says to McCain, “you want to pretend that the war started in 2007!” **This was a very good answer by Obama, and the “pretend” comment is just the kind of soundbite that Obama wants played over and over again**
McCain: Says that Obama doesn’t understand the difference between a tactic and a strategy. Tells a story about the re-enlistment ceremony in Iraq and being told by the soldiers “let us win this thing.” Says that we are winning and that we will do the same thing in Afghanistan. Also tries to paint Obama as voting against funding for the troops.
8:47: Obama: Obama responds to this funding argument by pointing out that he was voting against an open-ended commitment and that McCain voted against a bill that had a withdrawal timetable. Obama goes back to trying to re-frame the question to point out that the initial decision to go in is extremely important and it shows judgement (or lack thereof). Says that we need to re-focus on Afghanistan and prevent that from collapsing. Says we need to get out of Iraq within 16 months and re-deploy to Afghanistan and that the commanders on the ground agree with him. **Obama did a good job of dealing with the troop funding thing. Again, Obama tries to make this about the initial decision**
8:49: McCain: Iraq is the central battleground in the battle against Al Qaeda. Says that setting a date for withdrawal would be to “snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.” **McCain is putting everything on the surge**
8:50: QUESTION: AFGHANISTAN
Obama: Things are getting worse in Afghanistan. We need 2-3 additional brigades. Says that we made a strategic mistake in ignoring Afghanistan. Points out a number of things that we need to do in order to get the situation under control. Among them are: controlling the poppy trade and doing something about AQ having a safe haven in Pakistan.
8:52: McCain: Says that he would not repeat the mistake of ignoring Afghanistan like we did after the Soviets left. He goes after Obama for saying that he’d target Pakistan-“if you aim a gun, pull the trigger”-Don’t threaten Pakisan, “don’t say that out loud.” He explains the border situation and says that we have to use the same strategy that we are using in Iraq.
8:55: Obama: Clarifies the Pakistan thing by saying that we’d only attack a target it we knew that OBL or a high-ranking AQ official was present and Pakistan refused to do anything about it. He says that there are already cross-border attacks by AQ and that we have to do something about it. Brings up McCain’s “Bomb Iran” song and insinuates that McCain doesn’t have the temperment.
McCain: Says that Pakistan was a “failed state’ before Musharraf took over. He says that he has good judgment because he voted against the Marines going to Lebanon and talks about how he supported all the military operations where we did well in the last 20 years. Says “I have a record.” Then gives the story about a town hall where he got a bracelet from the mother of a fallen soldier and she said “don’t let my son’s death be in vain.” **The town hall story might resonate with some people. But he made a major mistake here, Pakistan was not at all a “failed state” when Musharraf seized power via a coup against Nawaz Sharif**
Obama: Has a counter-narrative-talks about the bracelet he got from a mother in Green Bay who said that she wanted him to make sure that no other mother goes through this. Obama says that “we took our eye off the ball.” Hits McCain by pointing out that McCain said that we could “muddle through in Afghanistan” while we are in Iraq. **Good counter to McCain’s narrative and a good shot at McCain with the “muddle through” jab.”
9:02: McCain: Hits Obama for never having gone to Afghanistan. McCain says that he went so he knows what needs to be done. Says that if we do Obama’s plan in Iraq, we’ll have a collapse in Afghanistan. Says “[Obama] doesn’t seem to understand that there is a connection between the two.”
9:03: QUESTION: WHAT IS YOUR READING OF THE THREAT FROM IRAN?
McCain; Says that Iran constitutes an “existential threat to Israel” and that we cannot allow a “second holocaust.” Says that we need to form a “league of democracices” to do new tough sanctions on Iran because Russia and China are causing problems on the UN security council. Says Iran is causing problems in Iraq and hits Obama for not supporting the Kyl Amendent, says Obama doesn’t want to label them as supporting terrorism. **McCain is clearly making a play for Florida with this answer. Did he really just call for functionally abolishing the UN? Wow”
Obama: Obama answers the Kyl amendment argument, saying that while Iran supports terrorism, the amendment was waaaay to similar to the AUMF that we had with Iraq. He says that it was Iraq that led to Iran having increased influence. He went back to his extensive work on non-proliferation issues, but agrees that Iran having a nuclear weapon would be really really bad. Criticizes McCain for thinking that we can solve the Iran problem without working with Russia or China because those countries trade with Iran too much to make sanctions work unless they participate. Says that we need direct diplomacy. **Here we go, the big fight about whether to negotiate is about to heat up**
9:08: McCain: Blasts Obama for his comments about being willing to met with leaders of our enemies without pre-conditions. Says that we can’t meet with a leader who has been talking about wanting to “wipe Israel off the map.” He goes back and talks about how we set preconditions before we talked with China and the Soviet Union. **McCain is just wrong here, especially when it comes to China. China approached us in the 70s, right after the Cultural Revolution, they didn’t change anything but we still talked.**
Obama: Says that Ahmadinejad is not the most powerful person in Iran, so maybe we don’t meet with him. Notes that Kissinger says that we need to engage in diplomacy with Iran. Says that preconditions are not the same as preparations and that of course we would’t have some summit immediately with Ahmadinejad, we’d have extensive low-level contacts first and we’d see what happens. Notes that even Bush thinks that we need some diplomacy, because, for one reason, it would help strengthen our alliances and make sanctions more effective. Then says McCain isn’t credible because he said he might not meet with the leader of Spain, a NATO ally. **This was not a great answer by Obama because I think that its incredibly risky to invoke the other’s advisor, even if he had said things to make Obama correct. I do think the Spain jab could potentially be very effective.**
9:13: McCain: Says that Kissinger does not say that we want face-to-face meetings between the leaders. He says that NK has broken every agreement they’ve ever entered into.
Obama: Says obviously you don’t stay silent if they were threatening Israel.
9:15: QUESTION: HOW DO YOU SEE RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA?
Obama: We have to re-evaluate the whole approach to Russia. Says that Russia’s resurgence is a threat to the safety of the entire region. Says that we have to insist that places like Ukraine get into NATO. BUT, we can’t return to a cold war posture. Plays up his non-proliferation credentials and talks about the danger of Russian loose nukes.
McCain: Calls Obama Naieve for calling for restraint from both sides are the beginning of the Georgia crisis. Says that this is all about energy and Russia’s desire to control the pipelines and the supplies. Says that countries in the region are scared of the Russian threat and that we need to expand NATO to places like Georgia and Ukraine. Says that Russia is violating the terms of the cease-fire and that we have the right to expect Russia to follow the rules.
9:22: Obama: Says that McCain is lying about Obama’s response to the Georgia situation. Says that he immediately condemned Russia as the aggressor. Notes that he’s called for us to help re-build Georgia and its economy. Says that as far back as April he was warning about the presence of Russian peace keepers in the break-away provinces and that they needed to be replaced by international peacekeepers. Says that we need an energy strategy to reduce Russia’s influence. Says McCain has voted 23 times against alternative energy over his career. **Overall, I think this was a very good answer by Obama.**
McCain: “No one from Arizona is against solar power.” Says off-shore drilling is a bridge to alternative energy. Says he voted for Nunn-Lugar in the early 90s.
9:25: QUESTION: WHAT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER 9/11 TYPE ATTACK ON THE UNITED STATES?
McCain: Says that its much less than it was on 9/12, but we still could be safer. Claims credit for setting up the 9/11 commission. Says we’ve done most of the things that the commission proposed. Says that we need better intelligence and better interrogators so that we don’t torture again.
Obama: Says that we are safer in some ways, but we have a long way to go. Says that we need to secure our chemical plants, our transit systems and our ports. Says missile defense is a good idea, but that suitcase nukes are the bigger threat and that we aren’t spending enough on non-proliferation. Says we have to increase our cooperation with our allies in order to solve these problems and we have to restore the respect that we used to have from the rest of the world.
9:30: McCain: Praises missile defense and criticizes Obama for saying that we should only spend the money on it if it actually works. Points to SDI saying that it didn’t work, but it helped end the Cold War anyway. Says that we cant lose Iraq because we’d be wasting the sacrifice that we made. Says we’d be screwed if we followed Obama’s ideas.
9:32: Obama: Says that the sole focus of McCain and the administration has been on Iraq, and they have ignored everything else. Says that we have totally lost the ability to project power because of these policies. We’ve lost focus on the economy and we don’t focus on veterans issues. Says that we need a “broader strategic vision.”
McCain: Says that he’s been involved in every issue of national security in the last 20 years. He says that Obama has Bush’s stubbornness and says that we need more flexibility. **Did he really just compare Obama to Bush? Really?!”**
Obama: Says his dad was from Kenya and that he believed that America was the only place on Earth where you can make it. Says that this country does not inspire people anymore, because of the Bush/McCain policies. Says that we cannot be safe until we become that inspirational country again.
McCain: He says that he worked hard to normalize relations with Vietnam, so he knows how to heal the wounds of war.
My Final Impressions:
I think that on substance, this was pretty much a draw. I think that Obama did better than McCain on the economy because he was almost certainly better able to connect with the ordinary middle class voters and speak to the concerns that they have. McCain had two arguments: earmarks and government spending. But I do not think that those two things are going to resonate strongly with the public this time around, especially since McCain didn’t really bother to explain how those issues are really connected to the current crisis. I also think Obama did a pretty good job of diminishing the importance of earmarks as a percentage of the federal budget.
I also think Obama did very well on tax policy. He talked about the necessity of ordinary people getting tax relief and how his plan would provide that and how McCain’s would not. He also did a very good job of beating back McCain’s argument about corporate taxes.
All that being said, I think that he could have gone more on the offense on the economy. He should have spoken more about how deregulation led to the current crisis and how McCain has always been a champion that sort of deregulation and he can’t speak credibly about wanting to regulate. Maybe that will come in the next debate…I hope so.
I thought McCain probably came out a bit ahead on the substance of the foreign policy debate. While I think Obama did a great job of painting McCain as having had horrible judgment at the beginning of the war and how it would unfold, I think he did a poor job addressing the issue of the surge and why withdrawal with a time table would be ok. He should take a cue from Joe Biden on that issue as Joe handled it very well on the news networks after the debates. I also think McCain probably came out ahead on the Iran discussion because I think Obama got himself bogged down in the whole Kissinger thing.
While the substance was a draw, I think Obama is the winner of the debate. First, he was calm, knowledgeable and spoke directly to the American people and I think he did a better job of at least acknowledging the problems that they had. That is reflected in the early polling numbers about the debate which suggest that he had about a 40 point lead in the category of candidate “that better understands my problems.” Second, this was McCain’s best subject-foreign policy. McCain needed to come in here and kick Obama’s ass and he clearly did not do it. Regardless of whether or not you agree with Obama, I think everyone will have to admit that he showed a tremendous understanding of all the issues and was able to speak with authority and went toe-to-toe with McCain on his greatest strength. I think he allayed a lot of fears with his performance. That leads me into the third reason, McCain’s personality and attitude. McCain never looked at Obama the entire night, Obama constantly addressed and looked at McCain. Was he scared? Angry? What? I think that the public is going to react poorly to that, it could be for McCain what Bush I’s habit of looking at his watch was in 1992….bad. Also, McCain was clearly very dismissive and contemptuous of Obama on the foreign policy part of the debate. He kept saying that Obama didn’t understand things, but that is not going to work unless Obama clearly can’t hang with McCain on these issues, but its obvious that Obama has all the knowledge he needs. Those accusations aren’t going to hold water and I think they are going to turn off a lot of people, and that is reflected in the reports from the focus groups that some of the networks were running.
We don’t see the full impact of the debates for a few more days, but I expect that this is going to help Obama.
8:40: QUESTION: What are the lessons of Iraq?
McCain: We need a good strategy, not a bad one. McCain claims that he fought for a good strategy all along. Says that we are winning in Iraq and that we can come home with honor. We have to win because of Iran, and if we don’t win we’ll have to go back.
Obama: Says the real question is whether we should have gone in the first place. Gives all the reasons why going in was bad and how he saw all of this coming. Notes all the bad consequences that have come from our going into Iraq: Increased power and presence of Al Qaeda, $600 billion spent, 4000 dead, 30,000 wounded, $10 billion a month in additional spending. Says that he won’t hesitate to use force when necessary, but we have to be wise in using it. **It seems to me that the two of them are going to have competing lenses through which we are supposed to view the issue: Obama wants us to look at the judgment in making the original decision. McCain wants us to think about who is right about what is happening right now and the past is irrelevant.**
McCain: Says that the next president is not going to have to address whether or not to go into Iraq, the surge worked and Obama opposed it. Then says that Obama never held hearings on Afghanistan. **Yup, looks like I was right about what McCain is trying to do**
8:43: Obama: He explains the hearing thing, saying that Joe Biden is the chairman of the committee and when the chairman wants to hold full committee hearings on the subject, that’s what you do. Obama then says to McCain, “you want to pretend that the war started in 2007!” **This was a very good answer by Obama, and the “pretend” comment is just the kind of soundbite that Obama wants played over and over again**
McCain: Says that Obama doesn’t understand the difference between a tactic and a strategy. Tells a story about the re-enlistment ceremony in Iraq and being told by the soldiers “let us win this thing.” Says that we are winning and that we will do the same thing in Afghanistan. Also tries to paint Obama as voting against funding for the troops.
8:47: Obama: Obama responds to this funding argument by pointing out that he was voting against an open-ended commitment and that McCain voted against a bill that had a withdrawal timetable. Obama goes back to trying to re-frame the question to point out that the initial decision to go in is extremely important and it shows judgement (or lack thereof). Says that we need to re-focus on Afghanistan and prevent that from collapsing. Says we need to get out of Iraq within 16 months and re-deploy to Afghanistan and that the commanders on the ground agree with him. **Obama did a good job of dealing with the troop funding thing. Again, Obama tries to make this about the initial decision**
8:49: McCain: Iraq is the central battleground in the battle against Al Qaeda. Says that setting a date for withdrawal would be to “snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.” **McCain is putting everything on the surge**
8:50: QUESTION: AFGHANISTAN
Obama: Things are getting worse in Afghanistan. We need 2-3 additional brigades. Says that we made a strategic mistake in ignoring Afghanistan. Points out a number of things that we need to do in order to get the situation under control. Among them are: controlling the poppy trade and doing something about AQ having a safe haven in Pakistan.
8:52: McCain: Says that he would not repeat the mistake of ignoring Afghanistan like we did after the Soviets left. He goes after Obama for saying that he’d target Pakistan-“if you aim a gun, pull the trigger”-Don’t threaten Pakisan, “don’t say that out loud.” He explains the border situation and says that we have to use the same strategy that we are using in Iraq.
8:55: Obama: Clarifies the Pakistan thing by saying that we’d only attack a target it we knew that OBL or a high-ranking AQ official was present and Pakistan refused to do anything about it. He says that there are already cross-border attacks by AQ and that we have to do something about it. Brings up McCain’s “Bomb Iran” song and insinuates that McCain doesn’t have the temperment.
McCain: Says that Pakistan was a “failed state’ before Musharraf took over. He says that he has good judgment because he voted against the Marines going to Lebanon and talks about how he supported all the military operations where we did well in the last 20 years. Says “I have a record.” Then gives the story about a town hall where he got a bracelet from the mother of a fallen soldier and she said “don’t let my son’s death be in vain.” **The town hall story might resonate with some people. But he made a major mistake here, Pakistan was not at all a “failed state” when Musharraf seized power via a coup against Nawaz Sharif**
Obama: Has a counter-narrative-talks about the bracelet he got from a mother in Green Bay who said that she wanted him to make sure that no other mother goes through this. Obama says that “we took our eye off the ball.” Hits McCain by pointing out that McCain said that we could “muddle through in Afghanistan” while we are in Iraq. **Good counter to McCain’s narrative and a good shot at McCain with the “muddle through” jab.”
9:02: McCain: Hits Obama for never having gone to Afghanistan. McCain says that he went so he knows what needs to be done. Says that if we do Obama’s plan in Iraq, we’ll have a collapse in Afghanistan. Says “[Obama] doesn’t seem to understand that there is a connection between the two.”
9:03: QUESTION: WHAT IS YOUR READING OF THE THREAT FROM IRAN?
McCain; Says that Iran constitutes an “existential threat to Israel” and that we cannot allow a “second holocaust.” Says that we need to form a “league of democracices” to do new tough sanctions on Iran because Russia and China are causing problems on the UN security council. Says Iran is causing problems in Iraq and hits Obama for not supporting the Kyl Amendent, says Obama doesn’t want to label them as supporting terrorism. **McCain is clearly making a play for Florida with this answer. Did he really just call for functionally abolishing the UN? Wow”
Obama: Obama answers the Kyl amendment argument, saying that while Iran supports terrorism, the amendment was waaaay to similar to the AUMF that we had with Iraq. He says that it was Iraq that led to Iran having increased influence. He went back to his extensive work on non-proliferation issues, but agrees that Iran having a nuclear weapon would be really really bad. Criticizes McCain for thinking that we can solve the Iran problem without working with Russia or China because those countries trade with Iran too much to make sanctions work unless they participate. Says that we need direct diplomacy. **Here we go, the big fight about whether to negotiate is about to heat up**
9:08: McCain: Blasts Obama for his comments about being willing to met with leaders of our enemies without pre-conditions. Says that we can’t meet with a leader who has been talking about wanting to “wipe Israel off the map.” He goes back and talks about how we set preconditions before we talked with China and the Soviet Union. **McCain is just wrong here, especially when it comes to China. China approached us in the 70s, right after the Cultural Revolution, they didn’t change anything but we still talked.**
Obama: Says that Ahmadinejad is not the most powerful person in Iran, so maybe we don’t meet with him. Notes that Kissinger says that we need to engage in diplomacy with Iran. Says that preconditions are not the same as preparations and that of course we would’t have some summit immediately with Ahmadinejad, we’d have extensive low-level contacts first and we’d see what happens. Notes that even Bush thinks that we need some diplomacy, because, for one reason, it would help strengthen our alliances and make sanctions more effective. Then says McCain isn’t credible because he said he might not meet with the leader of Spain, a NATO ally. **This was not a great answer by Obama because I think that its incredibly risky to invoke the other’s advisor, even if he had said things to make Obama correct. I do think the Spain jab could potentially be very effective.**
9:13: McCain: Says that Kissinger does not say that we want face-to-face meetings between the leaders. He says that NK has broken every agreement they’ve ever entered into.
Obama: Says obviously you don’t stay silent if they were threatening Israel.
9:15: QUESTION: HOW DO YOU SEE RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA?
Obama: We have to re-evaluate the whole approach to Russia. Says that Russia’s resurgence is a threat to the safety of the entire region. Says that we have to insist that places like Ukraine get into NATO. BUT, we can’t return to a cold war posture. Plays up his non-proliferation credentials and talks about the danger of Russian loose nukes.
McCain: Calls Obama Naieve for calling for restraint from both sides are the beginning of the Georgia crisis. Says that this is all about energy and Russia’s desire to control the pipelines and the supplies. Says that countries in the region are scared of the Russian threat and that we need to expand NATO to places like Georgia and Ukraine. Says that Russia is violating the terms of the cease-fire and that we have the right to expect Russia to follow the rules.
9:22: Obama: Says that McCain is lying about Obama’s response to the Georgia situation. Says that he immediately condemned Russia as the aggressor. Notes that he’s called for us to help re-build Georgia and its economy. Says that as far back as April he was warning about the presence of Russian peace keepers in the break-away provinces and that they needed to be replaced by international peacekeepers. Says that we need an energy strategy to reduce Russia’s influence. Says McCain has voted 23 times against alternative energy over his career. **Overall, I think this was a very good answer by Obama.**
McCain: “No one from Arizona is against solar power.” Says off-shore drilling is a bridge to alternative energy. Says he voted for Nunn-Lugar in the early 90s.
9:25: QUESTION: WHAT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER 9/11 TYPE ATTACK ON THE UNITED STATES?
McCain: Says that its much less than it was on 9/12, but we still could be safer. Claims credit for setting up the 9/11 commission. Says we’ve done most of the things that the commission proposed. Says that we need better intelligence and better interrogators so that we don’t torture again.
Obama: Says that we are safer in some ways, but we have a long way to go. Says that we need to secure our chemical plants, our transit systems and our ports. Says missile defense is a good idea, but that suitcase nukes are the bigger threat and that we aren’t spending enough on non-proliferation. Says we have to increase our cooperation with our allies in order to solve these problems and we have to restore the respect that we used to have from the rest of the world.
9:30: McCain: Praises missile defense and criticizes Obama for saying that we should only spend the money on it if it actually works. Points to SDI saying that it didn’t work, but it helped end the Cold War anyway. Says that we cant lose Iraq because we’d be wasting the sacrifice that we made. Says we’d be screwed if we followed Obama’s ideas.
9:32: Obama: Says that the sole focus of McCain and the administration has been on Iraq, and they have ignored everything else. Says that we have totally lost the ability to project power because of these policies. We’ve lost focus on the economy and we don’t focus on veterans issues. Says that we need a “broader strategic vision.”
McCain: Says that he’s been involved in every issue of national security in the last 20 years. He says that Obama has Bush’s stubbornness and says that we need more flexibility. **Did he really just compare Obama to Bush? Really?!”**
Obama: Says his dad was from Kenya and that he believed that America was the only place on Earth where you can make it. Says that this country does not inspire people anymore, because of the Bush/McCain policies. Says that we cannot be safe until we become that inspirational country again.
McCain: He says that he worked hard to normalize relations with Vietnam, so he knows how to heal the wounds of war.
My Final Impressions:
I think that on substance, this was pretty much a draw. I think that Obama did better than McCain on the economy because he was almost certainly better able to connect with the ordinary middle class voters and speak to the concerns that they have. McCain had two arguments: earmarks and government spending. But I do not think that those two things are going to resonate strongly with the public this time around, especially since McCain didn’t really bother to explain how those issues are really connected to the current crisis. I also think Obama did a pretty good job of diminishing the importance of earmarks as a percentage of the federal budget.
I also think Obama did very well on tax policy. He talked about the necessity of ordinary people getting tax relief and how his plan would provide that and how McCain’s would not. He also did a very good job of beating back McCain’s argument about corporate taxes.
All that being said, I think that he could have gone more on the offense on the economy. He should have spoken more about how deregulation led to the current crisis and how McCain has always been a champion that sort of deregulation and he can’t speak credibly about wanting to regulate. Maybe that will come in the next debate…I hope so.
I thought McCain probably came out a bit ahead on the substance of the foreign policy debate. While I think Obama did a great job of painting McCain as having had horrible judgment at the beginning of the war and how it would unfold, I think he did a poor job addressing the issue of the surge and why withdrawal with a time table would be ok. He should take a cue from Joe Biden on that issue as Joe handled it very well on the news networks after the debates. I also think McCain probably came out ahead on the Iran discussion because I think Obama got himself bogged down in the whole Kissinger thing.
While the substance was a draw, I think Obama is the winner of the debate. First, he was calm, knowledgeable and spoke directly to the American people and I think he did a better job of at least acknowledging the problems that they had. That is reflected in the early polling numbers about the debate which suggest that he had about a 40 point lead in the category of candidate “that better understands my problems.” Second, this was McCain’s best subject-foreign policy. McCain needed to come in here and kick Obama’s ass and he clearly did not do it. Regardless of whether or not you agree with Obama, I think everyone will have to admit that he showed a tremendous understanding of all the issues and was able to speak with authority and went toe-to-toe with McCain on his greatest strength. I think he allayed a lot of fears with his performance. That leads me into the third reason, McCain’s personality and attitude. McCain never looked at Obama the entire night, Obama constantly addressed and looked at McCain. Was he scared? Angry? What? I think that the public is going to react poorly to that, it could be for McCain what Bush I’s habit of looking at his watch was in 1992….bad. Also, McCain was clearly very dismissive and contemptuous of Obama on the foreign policy part of the debate. He kept saying that Obama didn’t understand things, but that is not going to work unless Obama clearly can’t hang with McCain on these issues, but its obvious that Obama has all the knowledge he needs. Those accusations aren’t going to hold water and I think they are going to turn off a lot of people, and that is reflected in the reports from the focus groups that some of the networks were running.
We don’t see the full impact of the debates for a few more days, but I expect that this is going to help Obama.