And Dirk has a rather disappointing MVP trophy, it is time for basketball fans to start looking towards the next season. And by basketball fans, I mean Mav fans.
I have had to listen to a lot of crap over the last few weeks about how "you can't win a title with Dirk Nowitski as your #1".
Hogwash.
These are the same people who said you shouldn't draft a white German high schooler over a proven black collegiate player (tractor Trayler). We all know how wrong they were there.
These are the same people who said that we should dump Steve Nash before he made his first all-star game and bring in a proven point guard.
My point is not that most basketball fans show racist tendencies against white players (although they do, evidenced by the fact that the last 3 MVP trophies are owned by white foreigners. Wake up America, the best 2 players in the world are white foreigners.), my point is that most basketball fans do not have a good grasp on what it takes to win.
Lucky for you all, I do. ;)
The mavs are a good but flawed team. They have components that work very well and components that do not.
If you want the reason that the Mavs do not have a title and why they are not on the way to a second, the answers are Mark Cuban and Avery Johnson. Heresy you say?
To get to the bottom of the whys, you have to go back a good 4-6 years ago. Shawn Bradley's contract was up. Bradley went from being a top 15 center in NJ to lazy worthless "defense only" fuck under Don Nelson's watch. Nellie decided his offense was too poor to work on and had him strictly playing the defensive side as a shotblocker. Bradley clearly lost his love of the game. His contract was up and he seemed ready to retire. Nellie as much as he was dissappointed in Bradley, thought he could coax some good minutes out of him. He went to Cuban and said "lets resign him". Cuban, the man who once in assuring Mavs fans that we would never lose a coveted free agent for lack of finances, told Nellie that he could sign him, but that they would not sign anyone else if they did. Nellie agreed to the terms.
Then Milwaukee's dynamic young shooting guard Michael Redd became available. Nellie and son went back to the boss and said, "hey now, this guy is a near all-star and Milwaukee has little space and an all-star in Ray Allen in front of him. We can get him."
Dallas could have offered the full exception (like 5.5+ Mil a year) to get him. Milwaukee could not have matched that easily and based on their operating procedures to that point probably would not have.
Cuban instead offered Redd 1/2 the exception, trying to get him on the cheap. Milwaukee easily matched. Micheal Redd has been Milwaukee's best player since.
A starting 5 of Bradley, Nowitski, Finley, Redd, and Nash would have been awesome. Bradley aside, that would have been 4 all-star caliber players.
Then Steve Nash's deal came up. Cuban again lowballed him offering him fewer years than Pheonix, using the logic that he didn't want to have a declining player making max money. I wonder if an equal part of it was that the Mavs TOTAL cap was pretty high at that point. To me, the decision amounted to a salary cap bottom line --- having the Bradley salary anchor and wanting to sign Marquis Daniels (since traded) --- as well as a coaches decision --- avery wanting to develop their other PGs, force Dirk to be the man, and not liking Nash's defense.
Well Nash has won 2 of the last 3 MVP awards and even if he didn't reach that level in Dallas, is there any question he'd have produced much more against Baron Davis and last year's Mav killer Dwayne Wade than our backcourt did?
Passing on Michael Redd because Cuban didn't want to pay has been a awful mistake. He would have fixed a ton of our structural problems. Letting Nash go broke Nowitski's heart and ripped the heart out of this team.
Well, that's history. What are the problems today?
This team has some nice playoff parts, but is built for the regular season. Lets take some time and peel the Mavs like an onion. The Mavs have two players who can compete against anyone, their two all-stars Dirk and Josh Howard. They have two other players who can give a solid effort vs. most players but lack in certain area, DeSagana Diop and Devin Harris. Everyone else on the team is a situational substitution, IMO.
That works fine in the regular season where teams cannot do a ton to prepare for an opponent. You can sneak in Jason Terry's fine shooting at the 2 and teams really don't take advantage of you too much. You can run out Erick Dampier and get good production out of him vs. the slower moving rank and file. Jerry Stackhouse can score points for you.
IMO these guys are regular season minute eaters, ala Michael Finley. When the playoffs role around, these guys get geat eaten alive in a lot of matchups. Terry gets pushed around and shot over, Dampier gets forced to the bench vs. andy mobile team, and Stackhouse gets matched or outscored with better shooting numbers. IMO, #3 is too early in your rotation to have guys who cannot hold their own.
If you look back at the Lakers and Celtics, yes those teams had larry Bird and Magic, but they also had guys who wouldn't wilt under pressure around them. The bulls teams had Jordan and Pippen with a lesser team around them, but they were also chock full of clutch shooters like steve kerr.
Aside from Dirk and Terry, I don't see anyone on the Mavs who excells when the games are on the line. You need more killer than that.
If you look back at those teams they could win games in the playoff with their top 5. The Mavs cannot. Their froncourt is fine. Their backcourt gets abused in the playoffs.
Jason Terry won a collegiate title as a 3rd guard. Starting him puts him in over his head and makes him a target. I think his cheap shots come from the fact that it is emotionally tiring for him getting abused defensively every night in the playoffs. I say he is a keeper, but he should be your sixth man.
Devin Harris is not a player I like much. He is a soft finisher offensively and seems timid on that end. He does a great job of playing under control, but his game is all regular season. How much of his defensive game is pulling charges? In the playoffs very few charges are called. He has modify his mindset and play tougher in the regular season. He has to focus a little more on bodying and denying position. I think Harris's best days are ahead of him and avery is a good coach to direct him, but he has to get stronger and play stronger.
DeSagana Diop should be Dallas's starting center full time already. He needs to work on catching the ball and I'd try and teach him a low post baby hook. Guy scored 3.5 points a game in the GS series. I think with some work this offseason he could get up to 8-10. He is a legit defensive presence in the paint.
Dirk needs to develop the skyhook. Dirk used to develop a new skill every offseason, why not the skyhook this offseason? Kareem was not the most physical center of all time, but his skyhook made him a deadly scorer from the edge of the paint. Dirk could do that. IMO, dirk proved that he is not a playoff choaker last season when he took tim Duncan in the paint to carry Dallas past San Antonio. Even in the GS series where they had a great game plan for him, Dirk still took over game 5 late after having a miserable game and got the game back to GS. In game six avery took him out of the late, but honestly it was probably too late even for dirk. Having a move like the skyhook would have killed GS's gameplan for dirk.
Josh Howard is what he is --- a very consistent all-star SF. He doesn't take over games late and got caught out of position helping too often vs. Golden state. Still, defenite keeper.
Jerry Stackhouse is a strength and a weakness of the Mavs. He is the Mavs best at play in the paint. In years passed the Mavs looked to Michael Finley for scoring in the paint, but Finley usually took jumpers. The Mavs brought in Stackhouse and he provided a real boost in that area, but Stackhouse is not that great of a shooter. He is OK from 3 point range, but loves shooting from there. He is a little below average shooting in front of the line. The probablem with Stackhouse is that he gives the mavs what they need Interior scoring, size in the backcourt, but runs hot and cold and shoots a lot at a poor percentage. He thinks he can take over a game, but those days are behind him. In the playoffs, he is less of a factor because an opponent can break even with him pretty regularly.
Erick Dampier is a solid top 15 center. He can score in the paint and keep his position but is not much vs. mobile teams.
Devean George just sucks.
Greg Buckner has seen better days. He was great defender and tough guy with a very polished low post game. He didn't show much vs. GS.
Austin Croshere is in exactly the right spot. He is a very good backup for Dirk and IMO a very underrated player. He will deliver in the playoffs.
Maurice Ager should have gotten a lot of stackhouse & Terry's minutes vs. GS IMO. He didn't embarrass himself. I am eager to see more.
Coaching, I think Avery was schooled. He did absolutely NOTHING to get his star unchecked all series and was owned by Don Nelson. It has been well discussed that Johnson started the series off the wrong way by deviating from the lineup that got him there. I think the lion's share of the coaching faults can be placed on Avery, just as they could in the finals last season. GS was a very tough matchup for the top 7 that got Dallas to this point, but it isn't like Dallas didn't have the parts to adjust. Avery just made the wrong decisions.
He's still a work in progress though. Too early to think about a change, but management should work with him to develop better game plans for those teams we match up poorly with. Donnie Nelson Jr. may be a better coach than his dad --- no excuse not to get imput from him when your team is struggling.
I think he should have gone with what brung him vs. GS. I am not convinced that Dampier would have been abused vs. the run and gun GS. I would have gone with my normal starting lineup and prepped Dampier to have the series of his pro career, really amped him up. Remember he did spend a number of underappreciated years in GS. I'd have instructed my starting guards who have a speed advantage that they have to cover vs. breaks better because with Dampier in the line GS is going to try to run more. I'd have forced the ball in low to dirk and dampier the first game and seen how it went. I think Dampier could have scored 15-20 per game and that would have been the differrence. GS would still have scored as they did, but with Dampier throwing in 15 + in the paint, Dirk could have played his game more. I'd also have jumped on Stackhouse about the 3's and probably given some of his and Terry's minutes to Ager. Too many times Dirk passed the ball out to Stackhouse for 3's. Stackhouse had 1 game in the series that he shot the 3's well. The rest of the series he was average to below average in that regard. I'd have rather had a swingman who attacked or tossed the ball back inside. Harris did OK on offense but just got pushed around the first few games of the series. We would have had to have a number of talks about that. I think a leopard doesn't change his stripes, so ultimately, I would have to go with the idea that Davis was going to push around my points and would have tried to tire him out by having Harris and Terry trading out and being as physical as they could vs. him at the point spot. I'd cut there minutes to free energy for that. Terry would definitely finish the games at the 1 spot. I think Johnson made a few really bad assumptions in this game. He assumed that if he left his game breakers (Dirk and Terry) in for most of the games they would eventually click. In a series like this where you are facing a great coach who knows your personel, you have to make the game easier for your guys --- to me, that means having a low post scorer in the game at all time and not letting Terry get pounded on for 38 minutes a night.
The minute breakdown for the series looked like this:
5 - Diop 23, Nowitski 40, Dampier 6, Croshere 5,
4 - Nowitski 40, george 18,
3 - Howard 41, Stackhouse 28
2 - Terry 38, Stackhouse 28, Auger 4, Buckner 7
1 - Harris 27, Terry 38,
I'd have probably had the minute breakdown looking something like this.
5 - Dampier 26, Diop 17, Willis 5
4 - Nowitski 36, Croshere 10, George 2
3 - Howard 40, Stackhouse 8
2 - Terry 12, Stackhouse 12, Auger 12, Buckner 12
1 - Harris 27, Terry 20,
with
5 - Dampier
4 - Nowitski
3 - Howard
2 - Terry
1 - Harris
starting, giving the warriors two interior scorers to deal with early, good rebounding to stop breaks before they start, and good speed to cover their breaks in the backcourt, and finish with
5 - Diop
4 - Nowitski
3 - Howard
2 - Auger
1 - Terry
this lineup has Dirk, Howard, and Terry taking the shots to win the game and is pretty solid defensively.
So much of what GS did was predicated off taking Dirk out of the game and abusing the guards on the offensive end, that I think you would have really stripped their gears by sitting Dirk a little more and trying to keep him in a comfort zone. I think Avery would have been smart to figure out what Dirk could get on GS and run the offense to create that opportunity repeatedly. Make GS adjust then give dirk a break and bring in croshere. (AJ figured out too late that croshere was a good play vs. GS.) So much of that series was lost because Avery decided from Day 1 that he couldn't play Dampier and put all low post scoring on dirk. IMO that was where he lost the game. Vs. a short team like GS, any good interior scorer can have success. If anything they played Dirk too much. I'd have sat dirk a bit and attacked the paint with Dampier, Stackhouse, Buckner, Willis, and Croshere. Vs. GS's D, they'd have done alright.
Anyway enough with what should have been done.
There are structural problems on the Mavs. They need a more solid starting 5. I think you should be able to turn that collection of talent into hardened playoff help.
Stackhouse, Croshere, Diop, Willis, and George are all ending deals. Diop is already taken care of. I'd resign Croshere and Willis. I'd offer big money short term to get mutumbo to backup and guide Diop. I'd happily walk away from george. I think I'd let Stackhouse walk too. That would be the hardest call, but I think you let him go for the reason the Mavs let Finley (right decision) and Nash (wrong decision) go --- because Dirk defers to him and the team waits for him to do what they should be doing.
I'd go hard after San Antonio's Tony Parker. I'd offer a package of Dampier, Harris and at least 1 #1 pick for Parker and Robert Horry. Horry is an average player now in the twilight of his career, but can still take a pass from a star and hit a crunch time 3 pointer in the playoffs. Dallas needs that despirately. Parker is considered a good starting PG, but not one of the elite. In spite of this Parker almost always breaks even vs. every elite PG he plays in the playoffs. Dallas needs that uppity toughness in their backcourt.
Why might San Antonio do this? I think they might consider it if they lose to Pheonix. They are at a plateau. Their talent is maxed out---as in they are not a team on the rise. They are a team that is pretty good and if things fall right might find their way to the championship, but that would be consecutive years of having a western rival end their season. Pheonix and Dallas knowing that they can take the spurs is no good. Tim Duncan's 29. Most teams win titles when their best player is in the 28-32 range. Throwing out Dampier at center and Duncan at 4 might really grab SA management as a way to take advantage of their window of opportunity. Additionally Harris would be a better point guard with that makeup than he is in Dallas. I think it would be considered, no idea if they'd bite. A lot of things would have to fall right. That would be the KIND of move I'd pursue though.
That would allow me to end games with:
5 - Diop
4 - Nowitski
3 - Howard/Horry
2 - Terry/Howard
1 - Parker
That, IMO would be a championship team, and, if Diop and Nowitski could do some modest work on their interior games as suggested above, could be the basis of multiple title runs. IMO.
Now if cuban would just sell the team already....