Not Russia

[topum]

The Ukrainians staying with us are constantly in a state of extreme anxiety which is bordering on a total breakdown at times. They try to find and stick to various routines to distract and calm themselves down. They bake, they garden, they help me in the vineyard. And they also got hooked on this video, it helps them calm down. This is Norway

Comments

[bluemeanybeany]

Oooo I don't know, that mountain at 9:19 looks awfully like Hitler to me. I mean it's starting to lean to the right. And we wouldn't want to risk leaving a Nazi Mountain unencircled by troops. I think we better invade it.

[topum]

Fair enough. There this tiny thing though, we happen to be a founding member of NATO. I think it might complicate things a bit.

[bluemeanybeany]

Oh that is irritating. It would be helpful if you could stop being in NATO then and dissolve your 70 year alliance with multiple foreign partners?

[topum]

Yeah, sounds like a good idea...we probably won't though. Sorry for the inconvenience.

[bluemeanybeany]

you probably know this already but fyi the British news just said the plans the Belarus President was seen with today indicated that the southern Russian military column was next heading for Transnistria and the Moldova border area, and that the Russian plans had the whole of Transnistria blocked out.

[topum]

I do not see a scenario in which Transnistria will not be taken as part of this campaign. It has been separate from Moldova and de facto run and subsidised by Russia for more than quarter of a century (own currency, borders, etc), it is mostly ethnic Russians (most of them with Russian passports already), completely Russian-speaking (with very few Romanian speakers there) with the majority in favour of joining Russia (I believe if a fair referendum was held there, that's how they would vote). It is much more straightforward than even Crimea for them. And like Crimea in Ukraine, it is historically not Romanian / Moldovan land, that part was given and attached to Moldova by Stalin after WWII I think.

[eyeofthundera]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/belarus-president-stands-in-front-of-battle-map-indicating-moldova-invasion-plans/ar-AAUu7xm?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

Be safe brother!

[topum]

Thanks. I do not see a scenario in which Transnistria will not be taken as part of this campaign. It has been separate from Moldova and de facto run and subsidised by Russia for more than quarter of a century (own currency, borders, etc), it is mostly ethnic Russians (most of them with Russian passports already), completely Russian-speaking (with very few Romanian speakers there) with the majority in favour of joining Russia (I believe if a fair referendum was held there, that's how they would vote). It is much more straightforward than even Crimea for them. And like Crimea in Ukraine, it is historically not Romanian / Moldovan land, that part was given and attached to Moldova by Stalin after WWII I think. They will take Transnistria but I hope they do not try to invade "proper" Moldova.

[eyeofthundera]

What would stop them from invading the rest of Moldova? I mean, might as well take it while you can.

[topum]

I think he needs at least some kind of flimsy pretext to do it. He went into Ukraine because "Nazis were bombing Donbass for 8 years and NATO was pumping weapons into Ukraine militarising and radicalising it". He does not have these excuses in case of Moldova. Moldova is not bombing anyone, is not planning to join NATO, they are not "slavic brothers = one people", he does not have many Russians to save (they are mostly in Transnistria). I do not think he wants to be seen as not stopping at Ukraine and just going further west. Ukraine is also not going as great as he hoped I think. In addition, Romania (a NATO member) will be super antagonized by the invasion of Moldova (Moldovans are Romanians). So I think it will only be Transnistria. Possibly Gagauzia (Russian and Turkish speaking region in the south) but that would antagonise Turkey. He still might invade Moldova of course, he seems to be completely unhinged, but this is my prediction. Btw, I predicted that he would not invade Ukraine but would only annex Donbass (which was

[heleninwales]

I have been to Norway twice and loved it. I'm glad your Ukrainian guests have found something that is calming and distracting.

I am so sad about this whole situation. I'm old enough to remember (vaguely, I was very young!) the Cuban missile crisis when we came within a hairsbreadth of nuclear war. Then it was the Russians who seemed more sensible than the Americans. But Putin seems to have seriously miscalculated how easy it would be to take Ukraine and he appears increasingly unhinged, especially with his hints about using nuclear weapons. It's difficult to see a way out in which he can save face and declare victory.

[topum]

We have no evidence what his expectations were though and writing off Russian military's intelligence claiming that their expectations were unrealistic with little evidence behind it and just because we would like it to be that way is a good coping mechanism and a good way to keep up the morale but it might have little to do with reality. Putin mentioned the nukes right from the start to warn NATO against getting involved. One of his key military officers in the previous conflict (Donbass and Crimea) stated right from the start that this would definitely not be a quick war. They might have miscalculated to some extent but we don't really know how much.

He can just lie when he needs to "declare victory" I think. He will take Donbass+, withdraw and squeeze some kind of neutrality from the Ukrainians and claim that he freed Donbass, degraded Ukraine's military infrastructure (demilitarization) and ensured that NATO will not set foot there, i.e. "win".

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