(Untitled)

[ultraswank]

OK, most of you know how obsessed I am with real estate and the whole mortgage fiasco we're in the middle of, and if you have no interest in me ranting about it ignore this now. Anyway one of the message boards I read suggested that to really see how quickly the bottom is falling out of the bay area market you should check out south Oakland. This

Comments

[jgcr]

that's ... really bad. hopefully this will help.

[ultraswank]

My problem with this program is it isn't the rate that's killing homeowners, its the principle. Houses were simply too expensive so people had to turn to funny money programs they didn't understand in order to buy them. This program might help people stay in their houses, but those houses will still be worth less then the value of the mortgage. Then if they have to move anytime in the next 10 years, they won't be able to sell, eventually walk away, and will just go into foreclosure then instead of now. In the meantime we'll still have all this bad debt floating around poisoning the financial system. If congress really wanted to help they'd provide some form of relocation assistance to people foreclosed on, undo the bankruptcy restrictions from a few years ago so banks will worry again about loaning money to people who can't pay them back, and maybe give out a one time forgivance so any foreclosure between '06-'10 won't show up on your credit report. We need to take the hit, get rid of the bad debt and move on, or this thing

[incorpore]

totally agreed about having to ride it out.

I was just reading something about how the government is thinking about about bailing out Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae if it becomes necessary (and by their recent declines in value, it looks like it may become necessary), and how, in the worst case scenario, if the goverment backs their entire portfolios (about $6 trillion?), and if they both tank, the national debt would double, which would make the dollar crash, and we'd probably be in a depression that would make the 1930s look prosperous.

[mooflyfoof]

Ho-lee shit. Seeing a house in Oakland for under $100k is absolutely ASTOUNDING to me. Like, I don't think I've ever seen that before.

[angel_boi]

wow.
thanks for being another ray of sunshine in my day.

[jafitz]

This is, of course, also particularly depressing for those of us who were stupid and/or unlucky enough to, oh say, buy a condo in Oakland in 2006.

*bitter*

More rationally: From what I understand, there is a huge skew in terms of areas and price ranges that are effected. Really high-end home sales are still doing much better than "moderate" housing, and of course certain demographics (and therefore certain neighborhoods) were heavily targeted by the insane no-asset/no-income verification mortgages. (But you know all that.)

I guess my main point is, I don't think this the trend in south Oakland necessarily means Alameda (or my neigborhood, for that matter) is sure to follow.

[ultraswank]

I agree that different areas are being impacted well, differently. Real estate is all about location, location, location after all and the increase in homicides in the area puts additional downward pressure on prices on top of all the mortgage troubles. Still it wasn't that long ago that we were hearing that the Bay Area was going to be immune to any price declines. One neighborhood dropping 70% is sure to have an impact on the surrounding area, and while more livable areas might fare better, price declines have finally come here. In my opinion, if you saw double digit annual appreciation in '01-'04, you're going to see double digit annual depreciation from '07-'10.

[jafitz]

You're not saying anything I can disagree with. But please stop rubbing salt in my self-inflicted wound :(

[ultraswank]

Sorry, I didn't mean to rub your nose in it. Frankly watching such a huge economic and financial catastrophe take place while I'm taking so many financial and economic classes is a little exciting and I tend to get worked up talking about it. If its any consolation I'm dealing with the pain this is causing my my family right now. Plus think how much worse it could be, you could have bought a house.

[aergern]

dude .. if I could get a house in Alameda (1k sq ft or so) for $200k .. we'd be back out there faster then Karl Rove says no to Congress.

[valree]

It's good to hear you say that :>

[aergern]

Yeah. I've been saying it to Shann for quite a while now. The sticking point is my parents .. it is the reason we moved back here. If I could afford to move them with us .. sheeeet .. we'd never have left. :/

[ultraswank]

We've been keepin the place nice for you too. We have bookstores, a tiki bar and a movie theater too.