Good news, or a calendrical blip?zaimoniJanuary 7 2005, 12:53:25 UTC
There's a fairly reliable weakening of the U.S.$ vs. € in the last two weeks of December. [Kosovo killed it Dec. 2001.] The counter-strengthening in early January isn't as reliable, but it's there often enough I can't call this a surprise. I'd assume the macro cause is a combination of flushing dollars for local currency in order to balance the books, and converting dollars to local currency post-Christmas.
Re: Good news, or a calendrical blip?wendersfanJanuary 7 2005, 13:46:40 UTC
Can you refer me to some good sources for this type of information/analysis? I find it necessary to continually streamline my information-gathering. There's just too much out there.
Re: Good news, or a calendrical blip?zaimoniJanuary 7 2005, 14:07:21 UTC
I'll look later tonight. (When I'm too crashed to have any hope of working. Currently, I'm spinning off comments while yanking myself around into working condition.)
I grabbed the raw data from OANDA's FXHistory. Dec. 1, NNNN to Jan 31, NNNN+1.
But I wouldn't even have known to do the spot-check last week. I'm in the middle of importing U.S. current account data into MySQL. [Quarterly breakdown, both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted.] The current account components causes "automatic supply" and "automatic demand" in the currency markets, uneven time distribution of those components translates into cyclical effects driven by accounting.That, incidentally, is why I'm doing the data import. I'm thinking of seeing whether it's possible to predict a mass private debt default from near-real-time exchange rates, and projected current account figures. The proposed mechanism is what happened in Indonesia/July 1997 and Argentina/Dec. 2001. South Korea's LG Card liquidity crunch/Jan. 2004 appears to have been a different
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[Scanning: interbank rates on OANDA.]
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I grabbed the raw data from OANDA's FXHistory. Dec. 1, NNNN to Jan 31, NNNN+1.
But I wouldn't even have known to do the spot-check last week. I'm in the middle of importing U.S. current account data into MySQL. [Quarterly breakdown, both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted.] The current account components causes "automatic supply" and "automatic demand" in the currency markets, uneven time distribution of those components translates into cyclical effects driven by accounting.That, incidentally, is why I'm doing the data import. I'm thinking of seeing whether it's possible to predict a mass private debt default from near-real-time exchange rates, and projected current account figures. The proposed mechanism is what happened in Indonesia/July 1997 and Argentina/Dec. 2001. South Korea's LG Card liquidity crunch/Jan. 2004 appears to have been a different
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For low-level spot-checks, I highly recommend OANDA and OzForex Guru. [The latter has a direct form entry for "seasonality of exchange rates".]
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