Elections 2010 Special!

[will_sample]

Because we're getting into the thick of election season (US party primaries, the British GE tomorrow, and November of course), it's time for a periodic update, including predictions for tomorrow's British poll numbers

Comments

[sares2000]

There's a chance - a fading chance - that the Lib Dems will beat Labour in the vote share. Given that they'll get far, far fewer seats, that would do a wonderful job of making 'first past the post' look unfair, making it much easier for Clegg to demand electoral reform.

Very true...

[will_sample]

...but the Lib Dems aren't going to get electoral reform, because its not in the interests of either of the Big Two-- and until the Lib Dems are part of a governing coalition, it's simply not going to happen.

I always find it somewhat funny, as an observer of British politics-- the Lib Dems and Labour would make a reasonably robust set of coalition partners, but the entrenched electoral interests of Labour almost make it impossible in the current environment.

That said, I like looking at all the different polling methodologies-- and some late swing is being concealed with the overall LSE/BBC models, mainly because not everyone has multiple polls of likely voters over the past 5 days, to see the break.

Labour's going to really outperform expectations, I think. It wouldn't take but a 0.5% swing in vote from some of the most recent snapshot, to give them the most MPs.

Re: Very true...

[will_sample]

...at least in terms of MPs. Vote share will be a disappointment, but they'll be tickled by the number of seats they retain, despite a steep decline in vote share since 2005.