Next year.
Oh, wow. We're looking at a whole 'nother year of tennis, starting in about a week's time. The off-season for tennis is remarkably short, but then fans can't really complain about this, can we?
A quick check of the rankings shows Nadal firmly ensconced at the top, with 6675 points; Federer and Djokovic are at 2 and 3 respectively, with Djokovic just 10 points behind Federer (Federer 5305, Djokovic 5295). I did hear during the Shanghai Masters that Djokovic will be playing at one of the pre-Australian Open events that carries points, so it won't be completely shocking if Federer goes into the Australian as the third seed.
In fourth place, quite a ways behind at 3720, is Andy Murray. Murray only really started pulling his weight in the second half of this year, so I'd put some money on him at least drawing closer to the guys at the top in the months to come. Especially since his second-half performance took him from the high teens to 1000 points ahead of #5 (Davydenko).
So, where next?
My take (and a view that is shared by many) is that Nadal has come into his own this year. Whether or not he has peaked remains to be seen, but personally I believe the best is yet to come. The slow hardcourts of Melbourne Park are perhaps a better venue for him, compared to the fast courts of Flushing Meadows, to continue building up his all-surface cred, but although he's definitely going to be a strong contender in Melbourne (better odds than this year), I think someone else will win the first Grand Slam of 2009. The reason? Nadal's strategy is to peak in time for the clay season, then ride the high through grass and into summer. It got him Wimbledon this year, and I suspect he'd want to repeat the same success in 2009. Not that he doesn't give his all at all times, but I suspect it's a factor of his conditioning programme that he's never been that great at the beginning of the year (merely *ahem* making semifinals), and if he shows blazingly good form come January I'd start seriously worrying about injuries by the time the grass season rolls around. Which may never actually happen; this guy is full of surprises. Maybe he'll have a blazing year.
Federer. Let me see. It's quite likely he'll slip into third in early January, and if he slips up during the Australian Open, he might be in for a two-month stay in that position, or even drop to #4 (depending on how much/how well Murray plays). Come March, he might make up a little ground at Dubai, Miami and Indian Wells, tournaments at which he this year didn't gain many points for, due to mono completely wreaking havoc with his conditioning. After that... well, it's really hard to say. Either a further slide, not down the rankings for a while (since the top 4 are really up there), but away from the top position, or maintaining his ground. Taking back #1 doesn't look like a distinct possibility, at least not at the beginning of the year, as it's not just Nadal hoovering up points left and right, but Djokovic and Murray as well. Will there be others? Possibly.
But first we talk about Djokovic and Murray. Both enjoyed a sharp rise in fortunes at the end of a tennis season; Djokovic's preceded Murray's by a year. Both are good all-surface contenders, with Djokovic's weak point possibly being grass (who knows, though? Could've been those shoes, or losing to Nadal at Queen's) and Murray's being clay (oh, miserable Andy). Again, we don't really know, because of their relative youth. I hope to see interesting things from this pair in 2009.
Now, the stalwarts in the top 10: Nikolay Davydenko and Andy Roddick. These two have had great longevity in the top 10. I expect a bit of a slide in the next year, especially if more young players start coming into their own. It takes a lot of motivation to play and win so many matches, and these two definitely have that in spades. Age and match fatigue might have other things to say, though.
Moving on... to the young'uns. I draw attention to a pair of Frenchmen in the year-end top 10: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gilles Simon, at 6 and 7 respectively. They're not really that young, I don't think (older than Murray and Djokovic), but exciting additions to the top 10 nonetheless. Tsonga has a bit of a hill to climb at the beginning of this year, with a Australian Open semifinal appearance to defend, but even if he slides down the rankings there, his injury-ridden 2008 means that there's lots of points to be earned everywhere else. That is, if he doesn't have an injury-ridden 2009. As for Simon, he doesn't look all like much (very deceptively), but if he continues working hard and maintaining his iron determination, he could be hanging around this part of the rankings for a while.
Then there's Del Potro. He still has to improve aspects of his game to really be in contention at the large tournaments, but he's young and learning. I say... Up. Maybe not in the next few months, but he's not going away, either.
People not currently in the top 10 to watch out for in 2009 and beyond:
1) Gael Monfils - if he could stop camping out 20 feet behind the baseline...
2) Fernando Verdasco - not a one-dimensional clay player by any measure; his only fault is being a bit of a headcase
3) Marin Cilic - made good progress this year, but still young and could do better in 2009
4) Ernests Gulbis - too erratically inconsistent, but if he settles down he could do great things
5) Eduardo Schwank - a bit of a clay player, but he'd be getting into ATP draws more regularly this year because of his great Challengers clay record last year
6) Kei Nishikori - one of the greatest movers of 2008, and an exciting player to watch
7) Jeremy Chardy - had a remarkable run at the French this year, beating players people thought would win hands-down
A quick check of the rankings shows Nadal firmly ensconced at the top, with 6675 points; Federer and Djokovic are at 2 and 3 respectively, with Djokovic just 10 points behind Federer (Federer 5305, Djokovic 5295). I did hear during the Shanghai Masters that Djokovic will be playing at one of the pre-Australian Open events that carries points, so it won't be completely shocking if Federer goes into the Australian as the third seed.
In fourth place, quite a ways behind at 3720, is Andy Murray. Murray only really started pulling his weight in the second half of this year, so I'd put some money on him at least drawing closer to the guys at the top in the months to come. Especially since his second-half performance took him from the high teens to 1000 points ahead of #5 (Davydenko).
So, where next?
My take (and a view that is shared by many) is that Nadal has come into his own this year. Whether or not he has peaked remains to be seen, but personally I believe the best is yet to come. The slow hardcourts of Melbourne Park are perhaps a better venue for him, compared to the fast courts of Flushing Meadows, to continue building up his all-surface cred, but although he's definitely going to be a strong contender in Melbourne (better odds than this year), I think someone else will win the first Grand Slam of 2009. The reason? Nadal's strategy is to peak in time for the clay season, then ride the high through grass and into summer. It got him Wimbledon this year, and I suspect he'd want to repeat the same success in 2009. Not that he doesn't give his all at all times, but I suspect it's a factor of his conditioning programme that he's never been that great at the beginning of the year (merely *ahem* making semifinals), and if he shows blazingly good form come January I'd start seriously worrying about injuries by the time the grass season rolls around. Which may never actually happen; this guy is full of surprises. Maybe he'll have a blazing year.
Federer. Let me see. It's quite likely he'll slip into third in early January, and if he slips up during the Australian Open, he might be in for a two-month stay in that position, or even drop to #4 (depending on how much/how well Murray plays). Come March, he might make up a little ground at Dubai, Miami and Indian Wells, tournaments at which he this year didn't gain many points for, due to mono completely wreaking havoc with his conditioning. After that... well, it's really hard to say. Either a further slide, not down the rankings for a while (since the top 4 are really up there), but away from the top position, or maintaining his ground. Taking back #1 doesn't look like a distinct possibility, at least not at the beginning of the year, as it's not just Nadal hoovering up points left and right, but Djokovic and Murray as well. Will there be others? Possibly.
But first we talk about Djokovic and Murray. Both enjoyed a sharp rise in fortunes at the end of a tennis season; Djokovic's preceded Murray's by a year. Both are good all-surface contenders, with Djokovic's weak point possibly being grass (who knows, though? Could've been those shoes, or losing to Nadal at Queen's) and Murray's being clay (oh, miserable Andy). Again, we don't really know, because of their relative youth. I hope to see interesting things from this pair in 2009.
Now, the stalwarts in the top 10: Nikolay Davydenko and Andy Roddick. These two have had great longevity in the top 10. I expect a bit of a slide in the next year, especially if more young players start coming into their own. It takes a lot of motivation to play and win so many matches, and these two definitely have that in spades. Age and match fatigue might have other things to say, though.
Moving on... to the young'uns. I draw attention to a pair of Frenchmen in the year-end top 10: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gilles Simon, at 6 and 7 respectively. They're not really that young, I don't think (older than Murray and Djokovic), but exciting additions to the top 10 nonetheless. Tsonga has a bit of a hill to climb at the beginning of this year, with a Australian Open semifinal appearance to defend, but even if he slides down the rankings there, his injury-ridden 2008 means that there's lots of points to be earned everywhere else. That is, if he doesn't have an injury-ridden 2009. As for Simon, he doesn't look all like much (very deceptively), but if he continues working hard and maintaining his iron determination, he could be hanging around this part of the rankings for a while.
Then there's Del Potro. He still has to improve aspects of his game to really be in contention at the large tournaments, but he's young and learning. I say... Up. Maybe not in the next few months, but he's not going away, either.
People not currently in the top 10 to watch out for in 2009 and beyond:
1) Gael Monfils - if he could stop camping out 20 feet behind the baseline...
2) Fernando Verdasco - not a one-dimensional clay player by any measure; his only fault is being a bit of a headcase
3) Marin Cilic - made good progress this year, but still young and could do better in 2009
4) Ernests Gulbis - too erratically inconsistent, but if he settles down he could do great things
5) Eduardo Schwank - a bit of a clay player, but he'd be getting into ATP draws more regularly this year because of his great Challengers clay record last year
6) Kei Nishikori - one of the greatest movers of 2008, and an exciting player to watch
7) Jeremy Chardy - had a remarkable run at the French this year, beating players people thought would win hands-down