(no subject)
The NFL must still have it in for the Texans and Mr. McNair for stealing a team from L.A.
Consistently - year in and year out - the Houston Texans have had easily a schedule in the top five or ten (more consistently top five, if not #1) in difficulty ever since their inception. Now, certainly being in the loaded AFC South never helps matters, but the fact they always seem to be saddled with one of the toughest - if not THE toughest - schedule every year of any team has done much to choke any progress the team can make towards the playoffs.
The schedule this year:
Sep 12: Colts
Sep 19: @ Redskins
Sep 26: Cowboys
Oct 3: @ Raiders
Oct 10: Giants
Oct 17: Chiefs
Oct 24: BYE
Nov 1: @ Colts
Nov 7: Chargers
Nov 14: @ Jaguars
Nov 21: @ Jets
Nov 28: Titans
Dec 2: @ Eagles
Dec 13: Ravens
Dec 19: @ Titans
Dec 26: @ Broncos
Jan 2: Jaguars
A few key points to keep in mind: The Titans, coming off a subpar year, are almost certainly due to rebound this year, most likely in spite of Radio's performance. Expect them to run their record to 11-5 and contend for second place ... the Colts should expect another 12 wins even though they lost the Super Bowl, thanks to the Jaguars falling ever into disrepair. The Giants should also rebound from a disappointing season and likely throw up 10 or so wins. Except for the Broncos, Chiefs, Raiders, and Redskins, no team on the schedule this year is any kind of rebuilding or any retooling mode, and is expected to compete this year for good seeding in the playoffs, and in fact, seven of the 16 games this season are against playoff teams: Indy, Dallas, San Diego, Jets, Eagles, and Ravens. You do the math: that's practically half the entire schedule.
Prediction for this year: 7-9, though perhaps a one or two game swing contingent on injuries. Expect to see the Colts and Titans sweep the season series, though the Jags can be had for both games.
That said, the team is well on its way to stocking the shelves with tons of talent that eventually could produce multiple Hall of Famers and All-Pros... paramount to this continued building of the team is a most important draft this year.
2010 NFL DRAFT
1 St. Louis Rams
2 Detroit Lions
3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4 Washington Redskins
5 Kansas City Chiefs
6 Seattle Seahawks
7 Cleveland Browns
8 Oakland Raiders
9 Buffalo Bills
10 Jacksonville Jaguars
11 Denver Broncos
12 Miami Dolphins
13 San Francisco 49ers
14 Seattle Seahawks
15 New York Giants
16 Tennessee Titans
17 San Francisco 49ers
18 Pittsburgh Steelers
19 Atlanta Falcons
20 Houston Texans
21 Cincinnati Bengals
22 New England Patriots
23 Green Bay Packers
24 Philadelphia Eagles
25 Baltimore Ravens
26 Arizona Cardinals
27 Dallas Cowboys
28 San Diego Chargers
29 New York Jets
30 Minnesota Vikings
31 Indianapolis Colts
32 New Orleans Saints
Houston Texans:
* Primary Needs: DB, TB, NT
* Secondary Needs: OL (backup), LB, DB (nickel and backwards), DL (rotation)
* Analysis: It's a key indicator of just how far the hapless Texans have come that they only have a few holes to fill in now in order to improve the team; namels, an impact corner, an impact safety, a complimentary tailback, and a big nose tackle in the middle. At least, that's how it appears on the surface... in truth, the offense is set almost all the way across the board with the exceptions of the Center position, the Right Guard position, and at RB2. Slaton needs a complimentary piece, while the C/RG rotation - though okay - is a long ways from Elite. Chester Pitts is also getting long in the tooth at Left Guard, and the team likely has been trying to find a way to get rid of him for the last three years but been unable to because of his production. On defense, the linebacking corps is plenty deep enough, with only a single possible weakness at Weakside 'Backer, and the cornerbacks are plenty deep enough, but lack elite players at the starting positions. Bernand Pollard is a beast at one safety spot, but he needs a complimentary piece ... Mario Williams and Amobi Okoye won't be going anywhere at their positions, but they desperately need impact players at the other two positions. All in all, that's 2, 3, or 4 more DBs - elite DBs - the team still needs, one elite nose tackle, one elite defensive end, and one more elite linebacker.
* Draft Talent Analysis: Thankfully, this is an exceptionally deep draft - perhaps the deepest in over a decade. Starters can be found literally into the fifth round, and the Texans have eight selections total this year - two in the sixth round, which is ideal for finding rotational players along both interior lines. This draft is particularly deep at defensive line, offensive line, and running back, with production available well into the fourth and fifth rounds, which again bodes well for the Texans, who won't need to reach for D-linemen as they have in the past (i.e., Travis Johnson, Jason Babin, et al ...).
* Round-by-round Predictions:
1 #20: DB ; in one form or another, this will be a defensive back. In a perfect world, Earl Thomas falls into this hole, but more than likely, this will turn out to be a corner.
2 #51: RB ; there'll be no avoiding it this year: the teams needs to take a power back with this selection, as all the good ones will be gone before they select in the third round.
3 #81: DT ; thankfully, the draft is deep at nose tackle, and they won't need to feel pressured to move up or reach to grab a serviceable one.
4 #118: OL ; the smart money should be offensive line here ... the team knows as well as anyone they need a guard/center hybrid to compete for playing time and provide a larger, more powerful presence in the middle on running downs. Chris White is too small and too weak to be a consistent run blocker.
5 #150: DB ; an ideal place to find another corner or safety, as plenty of talented ones will slip back here because of a variety of issues... poor combine performance, playing at a small school, you name it. In almost every one of Rick Smith's previous drafts, he's taken one or more defensive back in rounds four through seven.
6 #187: CL ; expect to see Smith look for even more rotation talent in round six.
6 #197: DB ; ... as well as even more defensive backfield help.
7 #227: WR/DB/OL ; Here would be a good place to look for special teams players, which is a position Smith and top special teams coach Joe Marciano always look to fortify (and smartly so... it keeps the Texans among the absolute best ST units in football).
* Final analysis: The Texans never look to make a splash in the draft, only to put together a good, solid one that won't draw raves until years down the line. Expect Smith to continue this tradition, selecting players that are considered "okay but not great" in every round, but who can all come in, compete, and earn playing time right away. The emphasis is never on Right Now with this team: it's always on Three Years From Now.
* The Perfect Texans Draft (Rnds. 1-5):
1: Earl Thomas (S)
2: Toby Gerhart (TB)
3: Geno Atkins/Lamarr Houston (NT)
4: Ciron Black (OL)
5: Alex Carrington (DE/DT)
Overall Draft Predictions:
It's almost a foregone conclusion that Bradford's coming off the board at No. 1 to the Rams... after that, it's a throwup over Suh or McCoy to the Lions, with the remainder heading to Tampa Bay. All three teams here will be satisfied with their picks, and they should be: they all have the potential for Hall of Fame careers.
After that, it gets tricky... with selection No. 4, the Redskins looked locked into Clausen until they nabbed McNabb in a trade earlier this month. Ergo, they would be smart to trade back, but it seems likely they'll go offensive line and take the best offensive tackle off the board. At five, it gets tricky yet again... K.C. would much prefer to trade back, but nobody wants No. 5, meaning they'll probably have to take the best remaining tackle off the board here as they desperately need to rebuild their line; don't listen to talk about Clausen here: they already traded for Matt Cassel last year. Seattle at No. 6 is an intriguing selection... surely they, too, would prefer to trade back, but forgoing that, will likely take Eric Berry or a similar player here. Then come the Browns, Raiders, and Bills ... in Cleveland's case, they need Clausen in the worst way, but could yet wind up trading or down in any number of scenarios... and the Raiders, well... you can expect a defensive player of some sort to be selected here far higher than he should be - possibly Jason Pierre-Paul - or some other player who will throw the entire draft out of order for the next ten selections. The Bills will then be left with the highest rated player left on the board - either Clausen or an offensive tackle - and then the run on tackles and defensive linemen will begin, with the Jags, Broncos, Dolphins, 49ers, Seahawks (again), Giants, Titans, and 49ers all coming after, in that order.
This is actually a highly unpredictable draft, as opposed to years past... dozens of trades will be happening over the three days, and the wild card - Al Davis - is going to throw the entire order off several times by reaching for players. In addition, the ludicrous overload of offensive and defensive line talent will make the first two rounds look like a watch list for the Rotary Lombardi Award, with just a sprinkling of skill position players tossed in-between them. In fact, don't be surprised if a grand total of five wideouts, tight ends, and running backs each go in the first two rounds, as the league's teams will be jumping all over linemen early and often and waiting until later to get their skill players.
Plus, with so many controversial and debateable players all over the boards this year - Dez Bryant and Tim Tebow among them - the entire draft is sure to be thrown into chaos at least three to six times in each of the first three rounds thanks to teams reaching, trading, and otherwise making questionable moves. In all, this is gonna be three days of high drama for all teams involved, but this much is for certain: the Raiders still won't get it right.