Well, crap.

[zunger]

It looks like the US may have actually managed to do something which will change the situation in Afghanistan in the long term, not just the short term: discovered large mineral deposits.It's going to take a while to process the potential implications of this. Afghanistan has been an isolated place, ruled by tribal warlords and resisting any

Comments

[merovingian]

Can I be optimistic here?

This is probably total cockeyed optimism, I know, and I don't know nearly enough about the situation...

But maybe this will mean there's something profitable to do there instead of opium poppies?

[zunger]

It's quite possible. In fact, it's almost certain to bring all sorts of new industries... but I'm not sure how that's going to play out for the people on the ground, especially when the various powers get involved.

[heef]

Think of it this way - they can use the lithium to level out their opiated binges.

[shandrew]

Indeed! More to do, more money to enrich the corrupt few, more money to spend on weapons. Hooray!

Unfortunately, modern mining is the most destructive industry on the planet. Without any regulation to keep mining relatively clean, and with massive corruption preventing any regulations from being enforced, mining behemoths can contaminate a country's worth of freshwater.

I also am not convinced that this is anything new. My fear is that this is yet another attempt at hinting "this war will pay for itself!"

[benrosenbaum]

I dunno, the US's best strategic option might be to ask China in. Possibly Brer Rabbit style? "Well! We want the people of Afghanistan to live in freedom and tranquility! So we'll just remove our armies now! We sure hope China doesn't move in or anything! Hear that, China?"

Let them be the overstretched empire for a while!

[zunger]

*grin* My fear is that China would deal better with the briar patch than we would. I could easily see them just walking in to the spots they wanted to be in, making a deal with the local warlords, and setting up shop. When things get rough, either kill everyone or pull out. No conquest, no attempt to build political or physical infrastructure, no problems.

[benrosenbaum]

I'm sort of unclear why this is a "fear". Is it because you have faith that the American nation-building, democracy-grounding project in Afghanistan is viable and will ultimately yield positive results? (I'm not mocking this position, I don't know enough to be sure one way or another myself.) Is it because you see America and China in a zero-sum game of great-power competition? Or is it because you think Afghanistan's current rural, tribal, decentralized poverty is preferable in human terms to becoming an exploited satellite of post-Maoist Chinese robber-baron capitalism?

[zunger]

I would say a combination of (b) and (c). I think that America's current project in Afghanistan is highly unlikely to have a lasting positive impact, since it doesn't ultimately address any underlying issues or even build much physical infrastructure. But I do foresee an increased period of competition between the US and China, and expect that it will take on more and more of the forms of a Cold War-type battle of ideologies. In that context, I think that US strategic interests are served by having as much "resource leverage" as possible over China; but I'm not convinced that the US actually attaining that level of leverage would be good for all, or even any, concerned. Sometimes having two great powers is better than having one