Comments | bakedweasels: 7 points? Really?

bakedweasels

7 points? Really?

Jan 26, 2009 08:55

I'm not a gambler, but I do enjoy betting on sports. Historically I've only done it through the NCAA basketball tournament, but I really like having a dog in every fight. If I ever go to Vegas again I'm going sometime when I can bet on sports ( Read more... )

Comments 5

countertorque January 26 2009, 17:15:04 UTC

Yeah, this has all the makings of a blow out where everyone talks about how they only came to see the commercials. Prior to 2001, we wouldn't even be questioning it. It's funny how recent history has skewed everyone's perception of the Cardinals' chances. I'm not going to bet, but this one looks pretty obvious.

bakedweasels January 26 2009, 17:18:56 UTC

I'll be coming to your place for the snacks more than the commercials.

kirisutogomen January 26 2009, 20:06:10 UTC

You sound like me, last year.

That probably has something to do with the line. People have a recent prominent example of a severe underdog surprising everyone, so they overestimate the probability of it happening again.

Also, the location helps Arizona some -- if they were holding the Super Bowl at Lambeau Field the line would be 17 instead of 7.

countertorque January 27 2009, 19:10:22 UTC

2008 Cards are 20th in DVOA at -0.5%, while Steelers are 4th at 27%. 2007 NYG were 15th at 0.0% while Pats were 1st at 52.7% So, I think we'd have to call last year a bigger upset. I don't remember what the spread was... like 42 or something, right?

twe January 26 2009, 23:51:58 UTC

I have to admit, I'm still baffled as to how they ended up in the Superbowl at all.