Space Colonization Economics, Part 4
In Part 3, I came to the conclusion that once humans decide to stay on the Moon or in orbit, they will be as self-sufficient as possible. So the question is, "why will humans go?"
The usual answer, "mining," is wrong, at least in my opinion. The right answer is "tourism," with a side of "research."
See, in the near future, there is a huge up-front cost in getting to the Moon, let alone setting anything up there. The logical (from a transportation infrastructure basis) intermediate point, low Earth orbit (LEO) is notably lacking in stuff to mine.
But if people will pay to visit the Gobi Desert, they'll definitely pay to visit LEO. Here's the key point - the people paying to go aren't paying so much for the experience - they are paying so they can sit around at parties and say "when I visited X, I..." So, virtual reality will never surpass actually visiting places.
Thus, we'll get orbital hotels first. The very first orbital hotels will be zero-gee "camps," but that will get old quick. The first celebrity who comes down from one and tell space-sick stories on a talk show will drive a move for spun stations, a la Von Braun. Actually, the fractional gravity of the sleeping / eating areas will be an additional selling point.
These orbital hotels and the infrastructure to get there will lead to (relatively) low-cost Lunar access. Taking an Earth-to-orbit capsule and modifying it to go to the Moon is fairly straight-forward. (Earth to Mars, not so much.) That will lead to Lunar hotels and research bases, a la Antarctica.
Well after we get those bases, we'll see Lunar mining. By then, the basic research needed to support life on the Moon will be in place, although I expect the Lunar mines to be mostly remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) driven from Earth, with a small human repair crew. The driver for Lunar mines will be second-order economics, or the NIMBY phenomenon.
Basically, mining, a dirty, dangerous and environmentally-challenged industry, will find itself being regulated and lawsuit-ed off of Earth. Once mining starts to move off of Earth, all sorts of mining operations, such as water for the Moon or metals to build space structures, become viable. A positive feedback cycle starts.
But at the beginning of it all, tourism is the driver. And the first tourism is orbital, which means cheap(er) orbital access.
Previous entries: Part 1, Part 2, whole series.
The usual answer, "mining," is wrong, at least in my opinion. The right answer is "tourism," with a side of "research."
See, in the near future, there is a huge up-front cost in getting to the Moon, let alone setting anything up there. The logical (from a transportation infrastructure basis) intermediate point, low Earth orbit (LEO) is notably lacking in stuff to mine.
But if people will pay to visit the Gobi Desert, they'll definitely pay to visit LEO. Here's the key point - the people paying to go aren't paying so much for the experience - they are paying so they can sit around at parties and say "when I visited X, I..." So, virtual reality will never surpass actually visiting places.
Thus, we'll get orbital hotels first. The very first orbital hotels will be zero-gee "camps," but that will get old quick. The first celebrity who comes down from one and tell space-sick stories on a talk show will drive a move for spun stations, a la Von Braun. Actually, the fractional gravity of the sleeping / eating areas will be an additional selling point.
These orbital hotels and the infrastructure to get there will lead to (relatively) low-cost Lunar access. Taking an Earth-to-orbit capsule and modifying it to go to the Moon is fairly straight-forward. (Earth to Mars, not so much.) That will lead to Lunar hotels and research bases, a la Antarctica.
Well after we get those bases, we'll see Lunar mining. By then, the basic research needed to support life on the Moon will be in place, although I expect the Lunar mines to be mostly remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) driven from Earth, with a small human repair crew. The driver for Lunar mines will be second-order economics, or the NIMBY phenomenon.
Basically, mining, a dirty, dangerous and environmentally-challenged industry, will find itself being regulated and lawsuit-ed off of Earth. Once mining starts to move off of Earth, all sorts of mining operations, such as water for the Moon or metals to build space structures, become viable. A positive feedback cycle starts.
But at the beginning of it all, tourism is the driver. And the first tourism is orbital, which means cheap(er) orbital access.
Previous entries: Part 1, Part 2, whole series.