In this position, your opponent could see that you didn't play LA for 10 (or even LAT for 7 -- it HAD to be ALP for only 5, leaving that dangerous spot open). That to me would signal you're up to something because the lanes off QUEEN aren't great and words starting with L aren't that big of a threat there.
I think I'm more impressed first with the kind of mind that is able to even see two moves ahead and that from that rack that kind of pure setup is possible. Not many people are able to do even that that effectively.
But if you always block, the hot spot, your opponent is better off playing ALP for 5 instead of LA for 10 with their bingo racks as well. The spot is somewhat dangerous, but not super-dangerous, especially with this pool (which isn't here)
Let's say your down 20. As long as one person isn't far ahead of far behind it doesn't much matter.
Pool is AAABDDEEEEGIJNOOOPRRRSSTTTUWY?, though again, it's not super-relevant. The opponent's skill level does matter (as do tendencies) but even starting to wrap my mind around questions such as how often they will block, their range, their perception of your range, etc. is just really tough.
This sort of position comes up more in Collins, I think. You see more setups in general, and so more of this sort of thing where responding to a bingo threat by creating an obvious setup makes sense. So I've played several of these, on both sides, and I'm starting to get a bit of intuition about what to do. But it's tough, and gets tougher the better your opponent is. You've identified the problems appropriately. I'm sure at some point someone will feint one of these against me; I'm surprised it hasn't happened yet.
I think it's a little deeper than that. I have no problem understanding that basic problem: it's when the variables are thrown in that this situation turns into a complete nightmare
( ... )
Let me just add this: ..."makes for a large *subjective* component of the game: estimating what they have, or what they are going to do."
In some cases, particularly at the low levels of strategy in many games, intuition might be more powerful than strict analysis at low levels of opponent skill. Sometimes in Scrabble, poker, chess, etc. you can gain tremendous advantage in this way: however, when you get to the higher levels of poker and chess this isn't the case. Scrabble is a young game so a lot of "experts" still fall prey, but as Scrabble theory evolves (read: as more money and attention and emphasis is placed on getting better on Scrable) this strategy will lose its effectiveness, just like it has in poker, chess. Another area where this is true (and you can see this becoming true before your eyes) is professional sports. Sabermetrics was all about this, and Quantitative Analysis in basketball is going to do the same thing to a lesser extent.
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I think I'm more impressed first with the kind of mind that is able to even see two moves ahead and that from that rack that kind of pure setup is possible. Not many people are able to do even that that effectively.
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Pool is AAABDDEEEEGIJNOOOPRRRSSTTTUWY?, though again, it's not super-relevant. The opponent's skill level does matter (as do tendencies) but even starting to wrap my mind around questions such as how often they will block, their range, their perception of your range, etc. is just really tough.
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In some cases, particularly at the low levels of strategy in many games, intuition might be more powerful than strict analysis at low levels of opponent skill. Sometimes in Scrabble, poker, chess, etc. you can gain tremendous advantage in this way: however, when you get to the higher levels of poker and chess this isn't the case. Scrabble is a young game so a lot of "experts" still fall prey, but as Scrabble theory evolves (read: as more money and attention and emphasis is placed on getting better on Scrable) this strategy will lose its effectiveness, just like it has in poker, chess. Another area where this is true (and you can see this becoming true before your eyes) is professional sports. Sabermetrics was all about this, and Quantitative Analysis in basketball is going to do the same thing to a lesser extent.
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