(5) Speculations I

Mar 11, 2011 15:42

[Phone, standard filter: Sasaki, having returned from Westport in a contemplative mood, has decided to air a few of her speculations.]

cut for tl;dr speculation )

red sniper, lithuania, tavros nitram, patchouli knowledge, garviel loken, yuki nagato, !: speculations, wilhelm

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Comments 148

bogusmagicker March 11 2011, 21:06:09 UTC
Interesting.

. . . . . . . . If this is their aim, however, they will not find the answers they seek.

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cramschoolgod March 11 2011, 21:36:39 UTC
Why do you say that, Nagato-san? It's entirely possible that the answer they seek is something analogous to what our own defeat of the authorities here would be.

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bogusmagicker March 11 2011, 22:15:37 UTC
'A society that will advance more quickly' . . . I would suggest that our 'society' has not advanced, and will not advance due both to the nature of the residents and the actions of the town.

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cramschoolgod March 11 2011, 22:21:36 UTC
Ah, I see what you mean. Yes, that's a good point, Nagato-san.

Perhaps advance would not be the goal, then, but the creation of a potential. You probably know from history of the great examples of cultural mixing among humans; when trade routes opened between Europe and Asia, for instance, or when Genghis Khan conquered all of Asia, or even during the Crusades. Thanks to the spread of human interaction, the rate of -- realized potentials within society was much larger than at times of isolationism. The most striking example is that of the European expansion to the Americas, which completely displaced native cultures, but caused, in the long term, a vast realization of potentials thanks to cultural admixing. In the same sense, it seems possible on a grander scale in terms of diversity, though lesser in terms of resources, that residents of so many vastly different worlds would generate incredibly unprecedented qualities.

[WAY TOO LONG; READ NOTHING AT ALL]

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wizardoftheweek March 12 2011, 00:05:33 UTC
Evidence has been given that this is something of a highly advanced fallout shelter.

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cramschoolgod March 12 2011, 00:22:00 UTC
What evidence are you referring to?

And if that's so, it doesn't truly explain all the mechanics of it.

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wizardoftheweek March 12 2011, 06:32:16 UTC
Pamphlets associated with a Soviet version of this very program.

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cramschoolgod March 12 2011, 06:57:58 UTC
I see. But that is only really a first-level purpose. It raises the question of "why is it so advanced?" What purpose can that serve? And that is the question I'm trying to address.

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repeatsalvation March 12 2011, 00:37:50 UTC
Quite impressive.

From what I've seen, there has been a heavy amount of evidence implying that the world we are currently in is post-apocalyptic. However, if this is indeed an experiment, presenting this information to us may, in fact, merely be part of the experimental condition. It's something I've considered before myself, although I have a hard time imagining the exact nature of the experiment. It may, indeed, be to create a society that advances quickly, but if that is the case why impose the obstruction of punishing us for refusing to behave as status quo for the decade the place disguises itself as?

I concede more to the third option, as the first seems unlikely and capturing me would be counterproductive to the second.

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cramschoolgod March 12 2011, 01:47:30 UTC
Hmm, I don't know if any of the three options I presented are likely, truthfully. They have a certain amount of evidence, in fact, but I have the suspicion that a few other hypotheses-- stranger and more complicated ones-- may be closer to the truth. As a rule, of course, Occam's Razor suggests that we should accept a simple explanation over a complicated one, if they cover the same facts, and the complexity of the situation means that no explanation can cover all the factors ( ... )

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repeatsalvation March 12 2011, 02:11:32 UTC
Ah. But therein also lies the fallacy that permeates Occam's Razor. While it can often be a useful tool, it makes the assumption that the simple answer will, in general, be the correct one. The problem with this is that simplicity is honestly rarely applied by people in their motives. Many are, yes, but often times it fails to take into effect the fact that people may make things even more complex and difficult for themselves then need be. And the likelihood of any answer is, at the moment, I would say near equal since we still know so little despite having much evidence ( ... )

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cramschoolgod March 12 2011, 02:24:45 UTC
Yes... precisely. Occam's Razor is a tool that's meant to apply to abstract ideas and philosophical concepts, not those things devised with the intricacies of the human mind. Mayfield appears to be a mixture of both, but I would still not apply the principle without caution ( ... )

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lunawolves10th March 12 2011, 02:17:41 UTC
"I believe this is an interesting speculation. I am inclined towards the idea of it being a prison. I would like to know which of the theories you lean towards."

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cramschoolgod March 12 2011, 02:28:37 UTC
Ah, Captain Loken... Frankly, I'm not sure I adhere to any of them--I have many others. But out of the three simple ones I outlined, the idea that it's an experiment appeals to me. Perhaps that's my bias.

The prison idea has a certain amount of appeal. It explains why some very powerful beings have been placed here. One seeming error in it, however, is that one would imagine that threats that require an imprisonment of this level could never be released--and yet people are permanently droned, with the implication that they have been released, fairly frequently.

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lunawolves10th March 12 2011, 03:01:16 UTC
"I am not sure. Could it not be that their wills broke and they accepted their role within the town? That is how I interpreted someone becoming a drone permanently. I am open to other interpretations, given proper evidence. Most of my knowledge on the behavior of drones is second though I trust the source implicitly."

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cramschoolgod March 12 2011, 03:03:21 UTC
It is a possibility, but it seems unlikely to me. The behavioral changes are extremely abrupt, and furthermore, they occur in such a regular and predictable fashion, yet in very different personalities.

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cramschoolgod March 12 2011, 02:47:41 UTC
That was the first theory, sir. As I said, it's possible that someone with too much power and no judgment of how to use it is playing with us at their whim. It seems like a child, as you said, and we know there is a child that seems to have a great deal of power here; so far, so good.

On the other hand, there's a certain regularity to the occurrences, as well as certain patterns, which I think counterindicate this.

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cramschoolgod March 12 2011, 15:33:52 UTC
First off, something major seems to happen roughly every month. Secondly, the variation in them is relatively predictable--from events of little consequence to those that seemingly involve the powers underpinning the town.

Thirdly, the stability of the town on a typical day undercuts the idea that its masters are capricious. It's generally pretty unchanging, which you would not expect from someone who acts on every whim.

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