Comments | darlox: A collapse of confidence

darlox

A collapse of confidence

Jun 16, 2009 09:40

I've been diligently avoiding making posts lately about politics, economics or business. Perhaps the biggest reason for this is that, lately, I feel like I know almost zero about any of them. Anything predictable by my particular brand of common sense has gone straight out the window, and for the first time in at least the last decade, I feel ( Read more... )

Comments 12

sweetypotatoe June 16 2009, 16:53:35 UTC

I must add that we haven't spent all the stimulus money yet-- I believe there is something like a 2.5 year roll-out of the spending.

Many things in the news are depressing and frustrating. Also, disingenuous and full of magic. It is special sort of magic, you understand, that can make large deficits have no long run effects. And a special sort of magic that will give health care to all without exorbitant costs.

Magic, magic, magic.

darlox June 16 2009, 19:20:30 UTC

You have to believe sweetypotatoe! Believe as hard as you can!!!

... and maybe click your heels together. I'm unsure on that part.

We've been through this before... wandering_rangr June 16 2009, 17:44:29 UTC

"No Country, however rich, can afford the waste of its human resources. Demoralization caused by vast unemployment is our greatest
extravagance. Morally, it is the greatest menace to our social order." -F.D.R

(Second Fireside Chat on Government and Modern Capitalism, Washington, D.C., September 30, 1934.)

Dare I say that Goethe's quote of "Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it" is also applicable here? We've been through this before. And, as much as I hate to say it, we will again.

Keep the faith.

Re: We've been through this before... cynic51 June 16 2009, 23:51:38 UTC

Didn't it take a World War to finally get us out of the mess last time around?

khiron1416 June 16 2009, 18:22:07 UTC

As my father is fond of saying "we ain't seen nothin' yet."

The next big disaster looming on the horizon is commercial real-estate. Take you friend with the adjustable rate mortage. Of the 100,000 guys like him around the country a percentage of them are going to be unable to make their payments (and seriously, whoever thought an adjustable rate mortgaage was a good thing to have?). Generally, commercial property is more valuable that residential and we are going to see the last 18 months replayed starting in about 6 months except at half as many address but each address being much more valuable. Commercial mortgages will go into default (this is why they are stress testing banks and making sure they've got the money to cover their asses), the credit default swaps on the mortgages will kick in and the insurers of those mortgages will be on the hook for billions (this is why we are pumping $$$ into and through companies like AIG). Only THEN will we see the real bottom. If it's not the second great depression by 3 years from now, we'll ( ... )

darlox June 16 2009, 19:17:52 UTC

Universal health care will actually help because employers won't have to worry about it anymore. there will, hopefully, be a powerful nationwide plan capable of negotiating lower costs.

I'm going to have to go with economist sweetypotatoe on this one and attribute that belief to magic, I'm afraid.

I (and thus far every fellow business owner I've spoken to on the matter) am sort of sketchy on the details about how this will lower costs. First, just because the recipient isn't paying for it, doesn't mean that it costs less. "I get free health care" != "My health care is free." As business owners, we're already paying exorbitant health care costs. You're going to suggest that my costs will go down paying for a similar standard of care for everybody else in addition to my own employees? Huh. I'm pretty sure this is the same argument that got us Social Security, because it will be sooooooo much cheaper than expensive individual pension plans, and accessible to all. Can't say that's working out so well in the final analysis, and I know exactly ( ... )

ext_25661 June 17 2009, 01:43:51 UTC

Oh, cool, we're believing economists now? Okay, I pick Paul Krugman. Oh wait, he's got a different conclusion. Now what ( ... )

sweetypotatoe June 17 2009, 03:01:56 UTC

Such ire for the economists! Uncalled for ire, I do believe.
You may believe Paul Krugman all you want. And I am in full agreement with him on some issues-- including a firm belief that UHC will be too costly without major cost cutting measures. Yet, I have not seen much discussion on how costs will be cut. Besides magic, of course.
I also must add that the "Free Market Fairy" hasn't paid a visit to the U.S. healthcare system in many, many years.

Thread 6

cynic51 June 16 2009, 23:53:25 UTC

Looking forward to a rant on Dimora, Russo, and company. Gotta love the headlines on those guys.

anonymous June 17 2009, 14:22:19 UTC

Setting aside the Universal Health Care arguement, I found it funny how the initial solution to the recession was to get people to buy stuff again. Of course, part of the problem to begin with was that people were buying too much stuff with money they don't have. So all we have to do is have people start spending irresponsibly again.

rob