100 元

[decrypt_era]

(That's 100 RMB, or 100 yuan, if you prefer)

Great Recession? Come on, a little honesty in labelling, please. The Greater Depression, at least. Or, if we don't get off our arses soonish, The New Dark Ages, perhaps.

In 2008 I asked if any of you would care to guess the date of the demise of the US dollar. I put 100 RMB on 15 August 2011. That bet

Comments

[tcpip]

I am of the opinion that the US is not in an economic depression, great or otherwise, and hasn't been since in recession the end of 2009. Now productivity is of course different (although often related) to the situation you describe, the ownership of (US) hard currency by foreign powers (China); so China is the world's biggest creditor state and the US is the world's biggest debtor state.. and buying up gold by the yokels is just going to make the problem worse.

Do I think this means the US dollar is going to cease to exist? No. Put me down as a nay-sayer.

BTW my reading of strangedave's deflation refers to the value of the currency; something that can be achieved via inflation of the supply. Does that make more sense?

[decrypt_era]

Well, I'm relieved someone responded - with no takers for a wager, out of fifteen people, I was beginning to wonder if I was still in Australia.

I am of the opinion that the US is not in an economic depressionHmm. Their GDP is increasing, certainly. Neglecting, for the time being, the arcane methods by which this number is generated, let's consider that most of the growth in this number is attributed to the financial sector. Given the manner in which those bandits conduct business, I feel drawn to ask, is there actually any product there? That is, do their activities produce any goods or services which the holders of all that US currency might value? Or do their current profit margins and unprecedented reserve deposits indicate nothing more than their skill at theft

[tcpip]

My problem with GDP calculations is that it is not arcane enough. All it measures is economic activity; good, bad or indifferent. If, as you say, most of the US gains have been in the finance sector that could be bad, and such things often are equal to real estate speculation (which was overlooked by most in the last recession).

[decrypt_era]

GDP, along with such figures as the CPI and unemployment rates, have (especially in the US) become fictions more useful as propaganda tools than as indicators for planning.

The gains in the financial sector are due to large-scale pillaging of public treasuries.

The Fed's "Quantitative Easing" (read "money printing") policy, while doing little for the US economy but stave off the inevitable, is producing "hot money flows" overseas, fuelling asset bubbles in these other economies (eg: real estate speculation in China), which is why China is complaining about American dollars increasing market volatility worldwide. This is the beginning of a trade war

on a completely different topic

[foamiethegreeny]

coz you never e-mailed me...

http://www.eenee.com.au/

If you think you are interested then ping me on karenatimmortalisdotiidotnet and I'll detail what we actually have.

[decrypt_era]

So, didja get my mail?