One Year Down
Today marks one year since the release of HBP. Let me then mark the occasion with a few comments, in three categories:
(1) The Book, In Retrospect
At the time I commented: "Wow, what a book. Not always what I expected; but, I would say, the best installment since PoA." I still hold that view ("best since PoA"), of course-- OotP, while certainly filling an important role in the overall series, is not really the type of story that JKR is best at; and, while GoF and HBP are somewhat comparable in various ways, I think that HBP holds together better and is more satisfying (when viewed as an individual installment, at least).
PoA still stands out, chiefly on the strength of its amazing final-adventure sequence (with the MWPP revelations, the Time-Turner episode, and the culminating realization: "Prongs"). The more interesting question to me is whether I like HBP better than CoS. It's a tough comparison to make; HBP is about twice the length, which has a big impact on how a story fits together. Sometimes I'm tempted to say CoS is better, but that's probably when I'm being biased more toward short and compact stories. It's probably best to say that I like them both about equally-- "Each in its own way" (as Beethoven said when asked which of his string quartets he thought was best).
One interesting facet of HBP-- which I don't think I've mentioned here before-- is the effect that the Dumbledore's Pensieve excursions have on the overall flow of the book. GoF has, to this point, the strongest peaks-and-valleys type of storyline, with repeated buildups to the three Tasks (and the QWC and Yule Ball also serving as peaks with buildups of their own). PoA is somewhat the same way (the peaks being the three Quidditch matches, supported by Harry learning the Patronus as preparation after the Grim Defeat by Cedric and Hufflepuff). PS and CoS are more "linear" in the sense of being a more straightforward buildup to the ending, without any big sub-adventures along the way. OotP is also kind of like that, but on a much larger scale; JKR did well with it, but it's really hard to make that sort of plot work in an 870-page book.
HBP is similar to the PoA/GoF type of plot, but in a different way. Its recurring feature (like the Quidditch in PoA and the Tasks in GoF) is not a set of intense peaks in the plot, but a set of excursions, the trips into the past with Dumbledore to learn about Voldemort's background and how he came to set up his Horcruxes. Instead of giving a peaks-and-valleys feel to the narrative, it's more like we go off to the side every three chapters or so (10, 13, 17, 20, and 23), and then come back to "real life"-- except that the excursions of course turn out to have the greatest importance in the overall scheme. I'm not sure I can explain it better than that; but I really do like the effect it gives.
One interesting feature of HBP was that the "Final Adventure" sequence (starting with Dumbledore asking Harry to come to the Cave) was shorter than the corresponding sequences in OotP, GoF, and perhaps even PoA. This I think I liked less well; it kind of made the ending feel cut-off (specifically, cut off by the death of Dumbledore-- or at least that was where the feeling set in). I could still reconsider that opinion, but for now it still kind of feels like "too short" of a climax for that long of a book. (I still like the book very much, of course; just that I view that as possibly a weakness in its structure.)
(By the way: I still think I got this post right. I got a lot of the details wrong, of course; but I still like my prediction for the general tone.)
(2) The Fandom Since HBP
I don't have as much to say here, but I did want to comment on the idea of a "Platinum Age" of the fandom ( floated most notably by arabellasq in the wake of HBP). I don't think it's really turned out that way, or at least not for those of us who were at SQ in the "Golden Age." It may be different for those who are newer to the fandom, or who enjoy the debate-society atmosphere more than I do. But for me, at least, it's not really even a "Silver Age"-- that was the PoA-to-GoF era.
So this is more of a personal perspective, rather than an objective assessment of how things must be. Some will agree with me more, and some less (though, unfortunately, the ones who agree with me more are probably less likely to be reading this!). To some extent, my lack of enthusiasm for fandom these days is a matter of the series not being fresh to me anymore, and perhaps it's partly that we know pretty much where things are going, and so there's not as much room for exploration by fanfic (at least not the type that explore where canon might go, which was the kind I usually most liked).
But it's also that the fandom has shifted away from being a group that shares my mindset. The groups that I was most comfortable with (UHPFC in late 1999-early 2000, and SQ in 2001 and early 2002) tended to be relatively small, or at least with a small core of intelligent commenters who kind of steered the discussions-- with the core sharing more than the usual amount of my perspective, not only on what was correct and incorrect, but also on what was established and what was speculative. Not only that, but the cores tended to be at least approximately compatible with my approach of interpreting the series "through JKR's glasses," and toward keeping our own preferred social views mostly in the background. Also, I tend to dislike the Deathmatch-type debate environment; if somebody can't see what seem to me relatively basic things about the books, I'd rather not discuss the books with them at all. And I suspect that I have much stricter views than most about what constitutes "proof," what constitutes a "realistic possibility," and what's best left in the "conspiracy theory" bin.
It may be that my preferred discussion approach leaves limited room for discussion, and that once a group has been together for a while, we'll naturally run out of things too talk about (unless we like speculative theories or fanfic that's more removed from canon). After all, the HP books may be multi-faceted, but they're not inexhaustibly so. And I'd rather enjoy some discussions for a short time, and then bid everyone a polite farewell, rather than try and stay in discussions that I don't like. (I did the latter in the last six months before OotP, somewhat to my regret-- but I really wanted to stay in touch with fandom people through the book release. I'm not sure that it worked well.)
So I'm not lamenting the passing of the previous Ages of the fandom-- just observing that this hasn't been a particularly special one for me (nor, I suspect, for most other early Quillers; or at least several of them don't seem to be around much more than I am). It's not a tragedy; it's just Life.
(3) Looking Ahead to Book 7
And now I get to (hopefully) the most interesting part. :-)
Recall my remarks above about the "peaks" in the PoA and (especially) GoF plots, and the partly-similar "excursions" in HBP. In the case of Book 7 (or, as I'm preferring to call it until JKR tells us otherwise, "GHH"-- which, of course, is short for Harry Potter and the Great Horcrux Hunt), we already know pretty much what the plot structure is going to be. Specifically, we know that the plot is going to be built around Harry going after the four remaining Horcruxes, and then going for the Big Final Smackdown with Voldemort.
This seems quite likely to give "GHH" a structure more similar to GoF than to any other previous installment. There can of course be variations; JKR can certainly stick in an extra adventure not directly related to a Horcrux pursuit, or she can have Harry find two of them back-to-back (or-- and this seems reasonably likely-- to have Harry go after Nagini and Voldemort on the same trip). She can also have one of Harry's trips be a false positive (kind of like the Cave adventure in HBP; in fact, it would almost surprise me if there werent' at least one mistaken Horcrux pursuit at some point in GHH). But still, the basic structure will remain (as it does in GoF even though JKR threw in the QWC and YB alongside the Tasks).
In addition to this, there will need to be a lot of work to figure out where the Horcruxes are; and there will presumably be various other supporting subplots to resolve as well. So a lot of stuff has to happen. In particular, more stuff has to happen in the summer than before-- the B/F wedding, the Godric's Hollow visit (by the way, I used to think that GH was a village, but am coming to the view that it was more likely a hiding place for Gryffindors in hard times, or something like that), the Privet Drive visit, possibly the first Horcrux pursuit, and (I suspect) a visit from Lupin & Tonks or McGonagall or somebody convincing Harry to come back to school (which I expect that he will). So I could see this being the longest Summer section yet; and I don't see the school-year section being any shorter than GoF.
Now, the key element of a book's length is the word count; the chapter and page counts largely follow from that (as well as the weight of the hardcover edition, etc.). The previous three books ran 191K words (GoF), 255K (OotP), and 174K (HBP). For this one, I'm guessing:
Word Count: 220,000.
That is, I expect it to be clearly longer than GoF. I don't know if it will exceed OotP; it's possible (especially given the way JKR commented in her journal about things expanding), but that's an extreme enough result that I'm not going to jump to a prediction of it. 220K seems fairly safe and reasonable.
US Page Count: 800.
Again, about halfway between GoF and OotP. That's down to a publisher decision about fonts and margins and so forth; the back pages of the US editions say that they used 11.5-point Garamond for OotP and 12-point for the others. Clearly there's some point at which they start taking steps to increase the page density; since I'm guessing a word count halfway in between GoF and OotP, I'm guessing the publishers will split the difference in page density too (11.75-point Garamond?).
Chapter Count: 39.
I can, however, see the chapter count this time exceeding OotP's. OotP was notable for its big long chapters (about 6700 words a chapter; GoF was about 5200, HBP about 5800). The thing with OotP is that there's not that many big definite events to make the chapters divide, so they can expand almost indefinitely, constrained only by JKR's feeling that "this is too long for one chapter." GHH (or Book 7, to use its more normal designation) seems likely to be somewhere in the GoF-HBP range on average chapter length. (I could just have easily have said "40 chapters," even, but am not feeling quite that bold today!)
Release Date: 7/7/07 (?)
I expect JKR to finish the manuscript late this year, with a summer 2007 release. I don't know what the publishers will think about coming out a week before the 7/13/07 movie; but still, 7/7/07 seems like it would be too good to pass up if JKR gave them the book in anywhere near the right time range for it.
A Few Things I Expect to Happen
Kind of shotgunning here, but....
Summer
Chapters 1-2. The Wedding
Chapters 3-4. The Godric's Hollow visit. (Maybe they'll find a Horcrux there? Nah, seems a bit early in the book for that.)
Chapter 5. (Time passes-- kind of like the Phlegm chapter in HBP, only not as relaxed.)
Chapters 6-8. The Privet Drive visit (on July 30, with Death Eaters attacking at midnight as Harry's protection expires).
Chapters 9-11. Maybe the first Horcrux pursuit? Maybe they realize that RAB's Locket was at Grimmauld Place, but find that Mundungus has already sold it, and have to go and buy it off of Borgin & Burkes before the Death Eaters do?
Chapters 12. Return to Hogwarts (including somebody convincing Harry to do so).
School Year
Chapters 13-14. Beginning of the new school year, including new DADA teacher.
Chapters 15-17. Early school year stuff, and Horcrux research.
Chapter 18. Pursuit of second Horcrux (about November), perhaps during first Quidditch match (Ginny is new Captain).
Chapter 19. December of school year.
Chapter 20. Christmas break.
Chapters 21-22. January and a bit of February. More preparations.
Chapter 23. Attempted Horcrux pursuit during February Quidditch-- false alarm.
Chapter 24. More research...
Chapter 25. Somehow get out of school, get real third Horcrux.
Chapters 26-28. Latter parts of school year, plans for facing Nagini and Voldemort.
Chapter 29. Spring Quidditch; find Nagini separated from LV, talk her out of hosting a Horcrux. ("Dangerous to confide a Horcrux to something that can move and think for itself," Dumbledore says.)
Chapter 30. NEWT's.
Final Adventure
Chapter 31-37. Pursuit of Voldemort.
Chapter 38. Final Smackdown. Death of Voldemort, in the locked room at the Ministry.
Chapter 39. Epilogue, years later. H/G and R/H married, H/G with their first child; looks like Harry, with his (mother's) eyes-- but with one difference: "He doesn't have a scar."
(1) The Book, In Retrospect
At the time I commented: "Wow, what a book. Not always what I expected; but, I would say, the best installment since PoA." I still hold that view ("best since PoA"), of course-- OotP, while certainly filling an important role in the overall series, is not really the type of story that JKR is best at; and, while GoF and HBP are somewhat comparable in various ways, I think that HBP holds together better and is more satisfying (when viewed as an individual installment, at least).
PoA still stands out, chiefly on the strength of its amazing final-adventure sequence (with the MWPP revelations, the Time-Turner episode, and the culminating realization: "Prongs"). The more interesting question to me is whether I like HBP better than CoS. It's a tough comparison to make; HBP is about twice the length, which has a big impact on how a story fits together. Sometimes I'm tempted to say CoS is better, but that's probably when I'm being biased more toward short and compact stories. It's probably best to say that I like them both about equally-- "Each in its own way" (as Beethoven said when asked which of his string quartets he thought was best).
One interesting facet of HBP-- which I don't think I've mentioned here before-- is the effect that the Dumbledore's Pensieve excursions have on the overall flow of the book. GoF has, to this point, the strongest peaks-and-valleys type of storyline, with repeated buildups to the three Tasks (and the QWC and Yule Ball also serving as peaks with buildups of their own). PoA is somewhat the same way (the peaks being the three Quidditch matches, supported by Harry learning the Patronus as preparation after the Grim Defeat by Cedric and Hufflepuff). PS and CoS are more "linear" in the sense of being a more straightforward buildup to the ending, without any big sub-adventures along the way. OotP is also kind of like that, but on a much larger scale; JKR did well with it, but it's really hard to make that sort of plot work in an 870-page book.
HBP is similar to the PoA/GoF type of plot, but in a different way. Its recurring feature (like the Quidditch in PoA and the Tasks in GoF) is not a set of intense peaks in the plot, but a set of excursions, the trips into the past with Dumbledore to learn about Voldemort's background and how he came to set up his Horcruxes. Instead of giving a peaks-and-valleys feel to the narrative, it's more like we go off to the side every three chapters or so (10, 13, 17, 20, and 23), and then come back to "real life"-- except that the excursions of course turn out to have the greatest importance in the overall scheme. I'm not sure I can explain it better than that; but I really do like the effect it gives.
One interesting feature of HBP was that the "Final Adventure" sequence (starting with Dumbledore asking Harry to come to the Cave) was shorter than the corresponding sequences in OotP, GoF, and perhaps even PoA. This I think I liked less well; it kind of made the ending feel cut-off (specifically, cut off by the death of Dumbledore-- or at least that was where the feeling set in). I could still reconsider that opinion, but for now it still kind of feels like "too short" of a climax for that long of a book. (I still like the book very much, of course; just that I view that as possibly a weakness in its structure.)
(By the way: I still think I got this post right. I got a lot of the details wrong, of course; but I still like my prediction for the general tone.)
(2) The Fandom Since HBP
I don't have as much to say here, but I did want to comment on the idea of a "Platinum Age" of the fandom ( floated most notably by arabellasq in the wake of HBP). I don't think it's really turned out that way, or at least not for those of us who were at SQ in the "Golden Age." It may be different for those who are newer to the fandom, or who enjoy the debate-society atmosphere more than I do. But for me, at least, it's not really even a "Silver Age"-- that was the PoA-to-GoF era.
So this is more of a personal perspective, rather than an objective assessment of how things must be. Some will agree with me more, and some less (though, unfortunately, the ones who agree with me more are probably less likely to be reading this!). To some extent, my lack of enthusiasm for fandom these days is a matter of the series not being fresh to me anymore, and perhaps it's partly that we know pretty much where things are going, and so there's not as much room for exploration by fanfic (at least not the type that explore where canon might go, which was the kind I usually most liked).
But it's also that the fandom has shifted away from being a group that shares my mindset. The groups that I was most comfortable with (UHPFC in late 1999-early 2000, and SQ in 2001 and early 2002) tended to be relatively small, or at least with a small core of intelligent commenters who kind of steered the discussions-- with the core sharing more than the usual amount of my perspective, not only on what was correct and incorrect, but also on what was established and what was speculative. Not only that, but the cores tended to be at least approximately compatible with my approach of interpreting the series "through JKR's glasses," and toward keeping our own preferred social views mostly in the background. Also, I tend to dislike the Deathmatch-type debate environment; if somebody can't see what seem to me relatively basic things about the books, I'd rather not discuss the books with them at all. And I suspect that I have much stricter views than most about what constitutes "proof," what constitutes a "realistic possibility," and what's best left in the "conspiracy theory" bin.
It may be that my preferred discussion approach leaves limited room for discussion, and that once a group has been together for a while, we'll naturally run out of things too talk about (unless we like speculative theories or fanfic that's more removed from canon). After all, the HP books may be multi-faceted, but they're not inexhaustibly so. And I'd rather enjoy some discussions for a short time, and then bid everyone a polite farewell, rather than try and stay in discussions that I don't like. (I did the latter in the last six months before OotP, somewhat to my regret-- but I really wanted to stay in touch with fandom people through the book release. I'm not sure that it worked well.)
So I'm not lamenting the passing of the previous Ages of the fandom-- just observing that this hasn't been a particularly special one for me (nor, I suspect, for most other early Quillers; or at least several of them don't seem to be around much more than I am). It's not a tragedy; it's just Life.
(3) Looking Ahead to Book 7
And now I get to (hopefully) the most interesting part. :-)
Recall my remarks above about the "peaks" in the PoA and (especially) GoF plots, and the partly-similar "excursions" in HBP. In the case of Book 7 (or, as I'm preferring to call it until JKR tells us otherwise, "GHH"-- which, of course, is short for Harry Potter and the Great Horcrux Hunt), we already know pretty much what the plot structure is going to be. Specifically, we know that the plot is going to be built around Harry going after the four remaining Horcruxes, and then going for the Big Final Smackdown with Voldemort.
This seems quite likely to give "GHH" a structure more similar to GoF than to any other previous installment. There can of course be variations; JKR can certainly stick in an extra adventure not directly related to a Horcrux pursuit, or she can have Harry find two of them back-to-back (or-- and this seems reasonably likely-- to have Harry go after Nagini and Voldemort on the same trip). She can also have one of Harry's trips be a false positive (kind of like the Cave adventure in HBP; in fact, it would almost surprise me if there werent' at least one mistaken Horcrux pursuit at some point in GHH). But still, the basic structure will remain (as it does in GoF even though JKR threw in the QWC and YB alongside the Tasks).
In addition to this, there will need to be a lot of work to figure out where the Horcruxes are; and there will presumably be various other supporting subplots to resolve as well. So a lot of stuff has to happen. In particular, more stuff has to happen in the summer than before-- the B/F wedding, the Godric's Hollow visit (by the way, I used to think that GH was a village, but am coming to the view that it was more likely a hiding place for Gryffindors in hard times, or something like that), the Privet Drive visit, possibly the first Horcrux pursuit, and (I suspect) a visit from Lupin & Tonks or McGonagall or somebody convincing Harry to come back to school (which I expect that he will). So I could see this being the longest Summer section yet; and I don't see the school-year section being any shorter than GoF.
Now, the key element of a book's length is the word count; the chapter and page counts largely follow from that (as well as the weight of the hardcover edition, etc.). The previous three books ran 191K words (GoF), 255K (OotP), and 174K (HBP). For this one, I'm guessing:
Word Count: 220,000.
That is, I expect it to be clearly longer than GoF. I don't know if it will exceed OotP; it's possible (especially given the way JKR commented in her journal about things expanding), but that's an extreme enough result that I'm not going to jump to a prediction of it. 220K seems fairly safe and reasonable.
US Page Count: 800.
Again, about halfway between GoF and OotP. That's down to a publisher decision about fonts and margins and so forth; the back pages of the US editions say that they used 11.5-point Garamond for OotP and 12-point for the others. Clearly there's some point at which they start taking steps to increase the page density; since I'm guessing a word count halfway in between GoF and OotP, I'm guessing the publishers will split the difference in page density too (11.75-point Garamond?).
Chapter Count: 39.
I can, however, see the chapter count this time exceeding OotP's. OotP was notable for its big long chapters (about 6700 words a chapter; GoF was about 5200, HBP about 5800). The thing with OotP is that there's not that many big definite events to make the chapters divide, so they can expand almost indefinitely, constrained only by JKR's feeling that "this is too long for one chapter." GHH (or Book 7, to use its more normal designation) seems likely to be somewhere in the GoF-HBP range on average chapter length. (I could just have easily have said "40 chapters," even, but am not feeling quite that bold today!)
Release Date: 7/7/07 (?)
I expect JKR to finish the manuscript late this year, with a summer 2007 release. I don't know what the publishers will think about coming out a week before the 7/13/07 movie; but still, 7/7/07 seems like it would be too good to pass up if JKR gave them the book in anywhere near the right time range for it.
A Few Things I Expect to Happen
Kind of shotgunning here, but....
Summer
Chapters 1-2. The Wedding
Chapters 3-4. The Godric's Hollow visit. (Maybe they'll find a Horcrux there? Nah, seems a bit early in the book for that.)
Chapter 5. (Time passes-- kind of like the Phlegm chapter in HBP, only not as relaxed.)
Chapters 6-8. The Privet Drive visit (on July 30, with Death Eaters attacking at midnight as Harry's protection expires).
Chapters 9-11. Maybe the first Horcrux pursuit? Maybe they realize that RAB's Locket was at Grimmauld Place, but find that Mundungus has already sold it, and have to go and buy it off of Borgin & Burkes before the Death Eaters do?
Chapters 12. Return to Hogwarts (including somebody convincing Harry to do so).
School Year
Chapters 13-14. Beginning of the new school year, including new DADA teacher.
Chapters 15-17. Early school year stuff, and Horcrux research.
Chapter 18. Pursuit of second Horcrux (about November), perhaps during first Quidditch match (Ginny is new Captain).
Chapter 19. December of school year.
Chapter 20. Christmas break.
Chapters 21-22. January and a bit of February. More preparations.
Chapter 23. Attempted Horcrux pursuit during February Quidditch-- false alarm.
Chapter 24. More research...
Chapter 25. Somehow get out of school, get real third Horcrux.
Chapters 26-28. Latter parts of school year, plans for facing Nagini and Voldemort.
Chapter 29. Spring Quidditch; find Nagini separated from LV, talk her out of hosting a Horcrux. ("Dangerous to confide a Horcrux to something that can move and think for itself," Dumbledore says.)
Chapter 30. NEWT's.
Final Adventure
Chapter 31-37. Pursuit of Voldemort.
Chapter 38. Final Smackdown. Death of Voldemort, in the locked room at the Ministry.
Chapter 39. Epilogue, years later. H/G and R/H married, H/G with their first child; looks like Harry, with his (mother's) eyes-- but with one difference: "He doesn't have a scar."