Comments | howardtreesong: World's Worst Prop Bet

howardtreesong

World's Worst Prop Bet

Aug 16, 2008 00:45

Seriously, I don't know what possessed me to bet that Amy Winehouse would have higher career earnings than Britney Spears in 2023. Part of it was that I was three sheets to the wind when I made the bet and among close friends to whom the $2K doesn't matter much. Part of it also was that I really haven't focused on Britney until recent years, when ( Read more... )

Comments 6

Wow. devils_tool August 16 2008, 06:02:36 UTC

Is there such a thing as "four sheets to the wind"? I commend your confidence in Amy Winehouse....but......wow.

Re: Wow. howardtreesong August 17 2008, 15:21:20 UTC

I really do think this is the single worst bet I have ever made by a very very wide margin.

strategery August 16 2008, 16:26:08 UTC

what's the spending power of $2k going to be in 2023?

howardtreesong August 17 2008, 15:20:52 UTC

At some reasonable discount rate, the PV of paying of the $2K now is around 800. But you are also getting at another idea here, which is that Amy's record sales in 2023 will be in inflated currency, and there's no inflation adjustment on the bet. So if the US turns into Zimbabwe and Amy sells one record for 200,000,000,000,000 dollar, I win.

Of course, I only win the equivalant of .00000001 cent in those circumstances, but still.

andrewhime August 17 2008, 07:22:59 UTC

Three sheets in a hurricane...

Wasn't Gladwell the guy who did "Somebody's Watchin' Me"?

howardtreesong August 17 2008, 15:18:33 UTC

Level? I was citing Gladwell in vain hopes of establishing a tipping point for Amy Winehouse by convincing all of my influential friends that she's the greatest thing since sliced bread, and thus creating a massive fad.

I'm thinking that's Rockwell, but that song was a loooooong time ago.