Let's talk about Coronavirus

[ithilwen]

I haven't been posting much recently (translation="I haven't been posting much at all"), but I thought I'd emerge like a zombie from my DW/LJ grave to help my online friends understand the truth about this new disease that taking up so much media bandwidth. First lesson: coronavirus is the name of an RNA virus family; there are many, many

Comments

[wiseheart]

Thanks for this. There aren't any reported cases in Hungary yet, but since the virus has already reached several neighbouring countries, it is only a matter of time. I wish I could persuade Mum not to go to church, where they sit like sardines, but it seems a lost case right now. *sigh*
In the meantime I'm stocking up on dry food items... as far as I can. You've seen our flat and its serious lack of storage space.

[ithilwen]

Try to remember that even in the demographic group consisting of the oldest elderly people, most who are infected survive. And you may not need to worry too much about church services, as those might be one of the things that get shut down by the government once the virus starts to really circulate widely.

I'm glad you found the post helpful! and it's great to "see" you again!

[anonymous]

It's Elleth, I can't seem to log in - hi! Good to hear from you, even though I wish it wouldn't have to have been for this reason. And... I've been following other med blogs and watching the developments, so what you said here (apart from the Spanish flu pandemic stats, I didn't know they were similar - yikes!) isn't news precisely, but for it's more reassuring to hear things repeated from a trusted source than from some stranger on the internet.

Question - you already said that we don't know about the mortality rate for sure, but does the 2% estimate count in possible unreported milder virus cases or is it from the hard and fast numbers?

[ithilwen]

I'm glad you found the post helpful!

We still don't have a great handle on the mortality figures, but the lowest figures anyone reliable is reporting is South Korea at 0.5%. Most of the others seem to be coming in between 1 and 2%, with Wuhan an outlier at 3-4% (probably because their hospital was overrun with cases fairly quickly, understandable since their city was the epicenter of the epidemic) and Iran an extreme outlier at 8% (Yikes! but we think they are seriously under-reporting total cases, perobably because they are not testing enough).

So even in the best case scenario we can currently extrapolate from the available data, COVID-19 infections are 5x as lethal as the seasonal flu. Not good news.

[furius]

This is actually very helpful summary. Logically, I know that que sera sera, but I athink the key point is that we do want to make an effort to slow it down while not panicking...thus avoiding situations (when it's reasonable) where there's higher chance of transmission to others. Just because I'll likely to recover from a sneeze doesn't mean other people will.

[ithilwen]

That's exactly the point. If we can slow it down, we keep more hospital beds open at any given time for those who will need them. Overwhelming the medical system is the biggest risk this virus poses to public safety.

[tehta]

So nice to hear from you again! And on such a timely topic!

My feeling is: I am going to get this thing, but it will not kill me. I am close enough to North Italy that I already know (multiple) people who know (multiple) people who have it. Eep.

At least I am a healthy person in a country with good healthcare.

[ithilwen]

Good to see you, too! Since the news has been talking about this so much, and so inconsistently, I thought it might be a good idea to step in and see if I could provide a bit of clarity.

"I am going to get this thing, but it will not kill me" is exactly the way to think about it. This won't be the "bring out your dead!" plague scene from Monty Python and the Holy Grail. We just need to understand that global supply chain disruptions may cause shortages of some items, and attempts to slow this disease down so it doesn't overwhelm the hospital system may mean temporary restrictions on our movements and on doing the things we like to do (such as traveling freely and going to large public events like concerts). It's going to be inconvenient, but we'll get through it.

[heartofoshun]

Thanks for sharing! I have been having trouble comparing and contrasting news reports and trying to sort this all out! Very useful.

[heartofoshun]

Oh, also great to hear from you again! I hope things have been going well for you.

[ithilwen]

I'm glad you found the post informative!

Things have been going well for me. Too busy at work, but aren't we all. I'm looking forward to the arrival of tomato-planting season!