astounding

[jonathankaplan]

If you went back to 1969 and told me that by 2009 we would have personal communication that was better than a Star Trek communicator, I would have said "no way, man". If you had said that water was going to be sale-able at $1 a (small) bottle, I would have laughed in your face (even though I have always been bullish on the price of water, that

Comments

[hgfalling]

In one of the assistant trader classes at SIG, I posed the following question: "What do you think is the probability that someone in this room (20 or so 20-somethings, plus Bill, I, and a couple others) will live to be 200 years old?"

Many estimates were epsilon-y, a few people thought like 5%. I estimated 40%, and most of that risk IMO is humanity destruction risk, not a lack of technology.

I think that should qualify for "astounding."

Bill and I also bet a guy at SIG 50c each at inflation-adjusted ten million to one (I think) that we+he pairwise would live to be 200. Seemed like +EV to me.

[corwyn_ap]

Isn't the star trek communicator a prediction?

I don't think it is even that big a stretch from existing technology, basically just a smaller 2-way radio, and they were already getting smaller.

The Web is what totally surprises me. Even now. Libraries on computer media, sure? Millions of people putting there own movies up for everyone to see? No way. A camera in people's bedroom broadcasting to the world? What are you, nuts?

In 1969, I don't think I was cynical enough, yet, to think that people would pay for the same water they could get out of a tap. But P.T. Barnum was way earlier than that.

I will ponder a prediction.

[blueadept]

I think - and hope, and am working toward ensuring - that governments as we know them are going to become obsolete by one or both of the following two mechanisms.

- I believe that there will be noncoercive means of minimizing and insuring against risk such as force and fraud that will be enabled by technology (that already exists today) that will be able to outcompete modern governments by simply being better, faster and cheaper, regardless of taxes. I think this same technology will take away much of modern governments' ability to tax transactions and practice monetary inflation.

- I think Patri Friedman's concept of dynamic geography may also create competition among governments as providers of arbitration, risk management and "public goods and services," bringing back the concept of federalism but in a much more robust form.

[mav600]

one word, CYBORGS

[aldoushuxley]

The US dollar will go to zero and we'll start over with a new currency like various Latin American countries have done. The Feds won't let debtors get off scot-free though and will partially reinstate debts in the new dollar.