expectations changing

[jonathankaplan]

I haven't been here in a while. And I only have a few words for you now.

Deflation. Depression. Eventual USD currency devaluation.
5 years at least.

Comments

[adb_jaeger]

Is that "five years of depression", or "no more than five years to devaluation", or both?

[jonathankaplan]

I'd say, "both

[andrewhime]

Cool, time for mass suicide.

[jonathankaplan]

Not yet. Soon. Keep ready.

[harryh]

> Eventual USD currency devaluation.

devalued with respect to what?

[jonathankaplan]

After the price deflation I describe above, I think the USD will devalue relative to many fiat currencies (although not all), and most hard assets, including most relevantly, real estate located in "international" cities, like NYC or Miami. There is way too much fiat now in the world, and the USD is leading that pack, that has got to come back to haunt us, if we don't grow into the supply. And I think that is very unlikely.

[zeakk]

You've left out Peak Oil. That's probably going to be a bigger humdinger than deflation.

[jonathankaplan]

Perhaps. But since everything often takes longer than I think it will, and Peak Oil is a very long term concept, I think it's economic effect on currency and prices won't be felt till after all that I describe above happens. 10 years or more till we feel this bite.

[the23]

As long as the £ doesn't lose value in terms of big old houses with lots of fruit trees in continental Europe I'm all for deflation. I assume we're in the same boat as the US here.