Invest 98L

[lupine52]

It seems a potentially nasty storm is starting to form in the Atlantic ocean and the spaghetti models for it are not pretty.  The main line for Invest 98L a currently forming storm system appears to be sweeping up into the gulf of mexico and slamming into the USA within the next week.  We can only hope and pray the circulating formation falls apart

Comments

[schnee]

Hoping for the best - stay safe.

Spaghetti models?

[lupine52]

yeah it is the term for the modeling they use to predict a storms path, all the contigencies and since they usually have like 20 different potential paths and resemble a plate of spaghetti noodles hence the name.

[allaboutweather]

Especially since they vary

[sabotlours]

Are you referring to the storm now forming off the coast of Venezuela? It's kinda surprising to see a storm form that far south in the Carribean. The GFS model has it hitting New Orleans on the 2nd. Yesterday it had the stporm hitting the FL Panhandle. So lots of strands in that spaghetti plot. At keast the latest model has it disapating fairly quickly once it makes landfall. The model yesterday brought it up the enture East Coast and well into the Maritimes.

[lupine52]

yeah that is the one, usually the formations and disturbances that can potentially hit the USA form in the mid Atlantic and you can watch the static cone for around 10 days but this one is forming so close to the mainland that when/if it forms into a named storm it probably will be 3 days till it crashes into a land mass bigger than an island which is not a heck of a lot of time for making preperations.

[allaboutweather]

It depends on what the ridging does farther north. The stronger the ridge the more likely it stays farther south. The current NHC forecast has it going into florida but the GFS and Euro were having it hit the Big Bend (which hasn't had a hurricane in over a century).

[d_bandit]

Hope, I can get behind, but pray? Pray to whom? The magic sky daddy who you think created the storm in the first place? Seems illogical, at best.

[lupine52]

the word pray when used as a transitive verb makes no reference to the "magic sky daddy" ( love that term :P ) according to Merriam Webster online dictionary ,

pray in this case would meam with earnest

.. yeah I learned something today ..

[allaboutweather]

The Gulf's pretty warm and there isn't too much shear. That's why so many storms getting into the Gulf intensify rapidly.

Hurricane Fiona's making a beeline for Nova Scotia and while it's post-tropical it's still a strong Category 2. They still have all the tropical warnings too.

Happy birthday!

[sunfire]

Happy birthday! I hope the year ahead has many good things in store for you!