Факторы риска

[tijd]

Пять возможных будущих событий, которых следует опасаться.

1. Ядерная война.

У кое-кого чешутся руки по мотивам давней фантазии. И Северная Корея, и Иран стоят на карте. Любитель войнушки Линдси Грэм оценивает шансы в 30-70%.

He estimated the odds that the Trump administration deliberately strikes North Korea first, to stop it from acquiring the capability to target the U.S. mainland with a long-range, nuclear-tipped missile. And the senator’s numbers were remarkably high.
“I would say there’s a three in 10 chance we use the military option,” Graham predicted in an interview. If the North Koreans conduct an additional test of a nuclear bomb-their seventh-“I would say 70 percent.”
Graham said that the issue of North Korea came up during a round of golf he played with the president on Sunday. “It comes up all the time,” he said.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/12/lindsey-graham-war-north-korea-trump/548381/

President Trump's approval rating has gotten even worse at the GOP has been debating its tax plan. Now at an all-time low of 36.5% in our tracking. https://t.co/XxvWwz6NaM pic.twitter.com/DS5wm4KYYu
- Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) December 15, 2017

Между тем рейтинг поддержки президента продолжает неумолимо падать, приближаясь к критически низкому. Самое время задуматься о " маленькой победоносной войне".



2. «Поджог Рейхстага».

Тимоти Снайдер предупреждает, что процесс развала демократических норм может быть резко ускорен катастрофическим событием вроде поджога Рейхстага или убийства Кирова, которое создаёт повод для консолидации власти. Несмотря на усиливающиеся нападки на ФБР, Трампу пока не предоставилось возможности для реформы правоохранительных органов или для создания им противовеса. Расклад может поменяться в случае катастрофического события вроде крупного теракта.

A writer for The Daily Stormer (a website that takes its name from the most anti-Semitic newspaper of the Nazi period) called Charlottesville a “Beer Hall Putsch,” referring to an early attempt by Hitler to seize power. The writer’s meaning was that the events in Virginia were an early failure that promises later victory. American Nazis dream of another Reichstag fire, a moment of terror in which the president will show his true colors and his opposition can be crushed.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/18/opinion/the-test-of-nazism-that-trump-failed.html



3. Увольнение Мюллера.

Многие комментаторы, глядя на истерику правой пропаганды и республиканских конгрессменов, считают, что увольнение Мюллера - уже решённый вопрос, и дело только в сроке. Такое увольнение, особенно если оно будет сопряжено с увольнением Розенштейна и нижестоящих работников Министерства юстиции, сразу вызовет ассоциацию с эпизодом “Saturday night massacre” в Уотергейте, но это необязательно остановит Трампа и его приспешников. Для них отместка за Никсона может даже служить побудительной причиной.

Голоса, которые увязывают увольнение Мюллера с импичментом, раздаются слева и справа.

Pelosi and Hoyer have always been cautious about the “I” word. But if Trump fires Robert Mueller, there will be no more room for caution. And one of the best ways to defend the Mueller inquiry is for House Democrats to make it clear at this point that-while they are, indeed, a minority in the House and Senate, and while they surely face the obstacle of House Speaker Paul Ryan’s partisanship-over-principle approach to governing-their response to the firing of Mueller would be an absolute and unequivocal demand for the impeachment of Donald Trump.
https://www.thenation.com/article/if-trump-fires-mueller-we-must-impeach/

If Trump knows he has something to hide that’s potentially impeachable, he should probably - putting ethics and the truth aside - fire Mueller and try to out-run the law. Otherwise, cashiering Mueller would be insane. It would be like firing Comey only worse. If Democrats took the House - and firing Mueller would increase the odds of that happening - Mueller might be the lead witness at an impeachment hearing, even if there isn’t any Russian collusion. I have to say that there would be something perfect about this - a special counsel investigating, in part, the circumstances that led to his appointment would be fired, perhaps leading to an impeachment about the circumstances of his ouster. It’d be the most self-referential alleged high crime in the history of the republic.
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/454717/trump-firing-robert-mueller-russia-investigation-fbi

Но политический расчёт может быть и в том, что возможность импичмента мобилизует на выборах в Конгресс 2018 как левых, так и правых избирателей.



4. Прикручивание расследований в Конгрессе.

Под наибольшей угрозой находится расследование в комиссии по разведке Палаты представителей. Сигналы об этом появлялись раннее, но в последние дни тревогу не на шутку забил Адам Шифф.

I’m increasingly worried Republicans will shut down the House Intelligence Committee investigation at the end of the month.

Here’s why:
- Adam Schiff (@RepAdamSchiff) December 15, 2017

“I think the Republican leadership in the House is under enormous pressure from Steve Bannon and others outside the building to prematurely close the congressional investigation,” Mr. Schiff said on Thursday. “After all, how can they ask Bob Mueller to shut down if the congressional investigations are still very much ongoing?”
It now appears increasingly certain, committee officials said, that the Democrats and Republicans will issue separate reports with substantially divergent conclusions about what role, if any, the Trump campaign had in the Russian meddling effort. And Democrats have not yet decided whether to try to carry on an investigation alone should Republicans pull out.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/15/us/politics/house-intelligence-committee-russia-interference.html

Click to view

5. Бесплодное окончание расследования Мюллера.

У специального прокурора большие полномочия. В то же время они ограничены. Прокурор ищет свидетельства преступления в соответствует с действующими законами и публикует эти свидетельства только в том случае, если они превращаются в железобетонные доказательства, способные выстоять в суде и убедить 12 присяжных. В случае расследований контрразведки не все свидетельства пригодны для открытого суда, поскольку некоторые из них могут выдавать секретные средства сбора информации.

Кроме того, не все случаи предательства (в общепринятом значении этого слова) попадают под уголовный кодекс. Передача секретных материалов однозначно трактуется, как шпионаж. Однако быть завербованным "агентом влияния" можно и не нарушая законодательства, но при этом нанося невосполнимый вред своей стране. Об этом пишут несколько экспертов разведки и контрразведки:

This isn’t to say that Mueller won’t find evidence of criminal acts in his investigation. Based on the indictments and plea deals we’ve seen so far, it’s clear that at least some of the people associated with the Trump campaign have committed crimes. But the U.S. criminal code is narrow: It encompasses specific activities like computer hacking, or money laundering, or lying to federal agents. Mueller will also proceed cautiously, only bringing charges where both the law and evidence are extraordinarily clear. What becomes public through the criminal justice system, then, will only be a sliver of what actually took place between Russia and the Trump campaign behind the scenes.
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2017/12/the_possibility_that_trump_is_in_putin_s_pocket_is_scarier_than_any_crimes.html



Дополнительные пояснения про то, как работает вербовка американцев для российских "активных мероприятий", даются в удивительном документе, под которым подписался весь цвет бывшего руководтсва американской разведки:

Although we cannot disclose the details of operations for which the information is still classified, we can attest that the Russian government continues to use local actors in a number of ways. They cultivate relationships with internal political actors-nationalists and populists, political activists and Russian sympathizers-and seek to use them to corrode democratic institutions from within. They develop lucrative business relationships with influential businesspeople to become vocal advocates for Russian economic and political interests. They use local agents to get closer to a target (especially one who would be hesitant to offer assistance to Russian operatives directly), or manipulate a target to suit their needs. They use these agents to probe potential targets to see if they might be open to relationships or blackmail. And they recruit individuals within a country to help them understand how to appeal to U.S. populations and target and shape the contours of disinformation campaigns. In sum, Russia has a practice of using local actors inside a country as a key tool in its “active measures” operations.
http://www.businessinsider.com/unusual-russia-brief-lawsuit-trump-roger-stone-2017-12

Документ подготовлен для судебного иска, который подали к избирательной кампании Трампа и формально не связанному с ней Роджеру Стоуну несколько человек, чьи личные данные были опубликованы Викиликс после взлома DNC.



Дело ведет судья Ellen Segal Huvelle. Сам иск подготовлен опытными адвокатами из организации Protect Democracy и читается занимательно:

On information and belief, and consistent with Defendants’ apparent willingness to coordinate with Russian operatives to benefit their campaign, an agreement arose out of those meetings and contacts. Defendants entered into an agreement with other parties, including agents of Russia and WikiLeaks, to have information stolen from the DNC publicly disseminated in a strategic way that would benefit the campaign to elect Mr. Trump as President (the “conspiracy”).
On information and belief, Defendants, in turn, provided benefits to the Russian government by making certain concessions important to Russia’s national interests, including intervening in the drafting of the Republican Party platform to protect Russian interests.
Defendants have provided other benefits to Russia, including a shift in Republican Party and U.S. priorities regarding NATO, efforts to lift or weaken U.S. sanctions on Russia, and a generally positive communications posture toward Russia to improve its image among Americans.
https://protectdemocracy.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/cockrum-amended-complaint.pdf