Iran, War by Proxy, and Consequences

[rodney_g_graves]

Being a response to Chris Gherrib's Bombing IranThe only "laws" which exist between nations are those which sovereign nations are willing to uphold by force of arms. Everything else is a "suggestion". In order for such "suggestions" to have credibility, there must be the perception that the nation making the "suggestion" is willing to apply

Comments

[chris_gerrib]

One part of your op-plan suggested an Iranian collapse, my point was that a collapse seems unlikely to me.

I do think that it might be a good idea to finish one war (Iraq) before we start another. We lack resources for sustained combat in Iran. Punitive expeditions, which is all the resources we have at hand allow, are notorious for yielding short-term results.

Rather then start something we can't finish, and possibly increasing the mullahs' power, I suggest we focus on the areas we're directly engaged in.

Contingencies

[rodney_g_graves]

Chris,

What my op-plan suggested was that by destroying Iran's ability to export crude oil and import distilled products, you remove Iran's sole viable source of foreign currency. Without said foreign currency, how are they going to:

1. Rebuild their Crude Oil Export Facilities
2. Rebuild their refined product inport and delivery systems
3. Maintain their existing refinery capability and build more
4. Rebuild their nuclear program
5. Support Syria, Hezbollah, etc.

Re: Contingencies

[chris_gerrib]

With oil at $140 a barrel BEFORE such a strike, they'll be people lined up 10 deep to get the Iranian crude back on line.

Once that happens, the Iranians will have plenty of motivation to rebuild and use that rebuilt capacity to cause mischief. It's the Treaty of Versailles Fallacy. After WWI, Germany was crippled. 20 years later, they were back and looking for blood.

I'm not sure we'd be able to buy 20 years with your plan. I suspect that if we *don't* intervene in Iran, in 20 years the mullahs won't be in power.

Contingencies

[rodney_g_graves]

Chris,

A big chunk of that $140/bbl price is concern about interruptions of supplies from the Persian Gulf. Most of that threat IS Iran. With Iran effectively out of the picture militarily, those threats go away. And since Iran is currently a NET importer, the effect on net crude available is minimal.

Versailles was a punitive peace. Germany was required to pay crippling reparations to end a war that their returning veterans had not lost on the field of battle. The best show of arms the Iranians have had of late was a bloody stalemate against a neighbor that a fraction of the United States Armed Forces subsequently went through twice like shit through a goose. Every time the Iranians have challenged the USN and USAF they have drawn back a bleeding stump, and their conventional forces have NOT improved over the last few decades (because the Mullah's don't consider them to be reliable