Here are the most likely scenarios for a McCain win, according to fivethirtyeight.com, which gives him a 6.3% chance of winning. (It was below 4% a few days ago.) By far the most likely scenario is that, among the 17 battleground states, he wins all the states leaning toward him (ND, WV, GA, AZ), all the tossup states (MO, NC, FL, OH, IN, MT), and
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